re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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This formation is already more powerful than the operational forces of i.e. the British or French or German or Italian or Spanish Army... but this is not all what is heading to the front soon.

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In total Ukraine could equip around 18+ combat brigades for the coming offensive. Naturally the brigades will also include reconnaissance, air defense, engineer, logistic, et al. elements, but as the exact type of these unit is unknown I didn't include them in my graphic.

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Besides combat brigades, Ukraine is also readying nine National Guard Offensive Guard brigades to clear out russian army remnants in liberated territories. Those brigades have less tanks and use lighter vehicles than the combat brigades, but they will be essential to secure the rear and lines of communication of the Ukrainian spearheads.

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In short: Ukraine's spring offensive will deploy the 2nd most powerful military formation on the planet to crush the russians. PS: The most powerful military formation on the planet is the US Army's III Corps. But we all knew that.

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Russian accounts are saying that Wagner has captured Khromove, immediately northwest of Bakhmut. If so, then Ukrainian forces will likely have to leave the city immediately.

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Recently, Russians launched a comprehensive attack and managed to push Ukrainians out of the long trench that leads right to the Khromove highway, meaning they have essentially established physical control over the road. “dNR head adviser” Yan Gagin stated that Bakhmut was finally taken into a pocket. Ukrainian forces cannot provide supplies or retreat.

However, if we look at the satellite imagery, we can see that Ukrainians developed an extensive trench network in front of the road, behind the road, and also all over the place. This was done precisely for such a development to ensure that Russians could not control the whole region by breaching defense in 1 trench. Russian forces opened three lines of attack to prevent the Ukrainian defense from working synergistically. As a result, two attacks were repelled, and 1 Russian attack succeeded, and they established control over the western line. This put Russians in a very inconvenient position, as Ukrainians surround them. Geolocated footage showed that Ukrainians were using grenade throwers, firing at Russians from 3 sides. A Ukrainian fighter from the Aidar Battalion reported that the situation is under control and, for the most part, Russians are being eliminated and taken captive.

In the face of the overwhelming evidence that the claims of the encirclement of Bakhmut were false, Russian officials faced a huge backlash and pressure. The Head of the Wagner forces also criticized the DPR authorities for undermining public trust. Shortly, the Head of the DPR made an official follow-up appeal and withdrew the statement about the encirclement of Bakhmut.

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In short: Ukraine's spring offensive will deploy the 2nd most powerful military formation on the planet to crush the russians.

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China cannot be trusted to mediate peace between Russia and Ukraine, Czech President Petr Pavel is warning, telling POLITICO that Beijing benefits from prolonging the war.

His comments come as China is trying to position itself as a peacemaker in Ukraine, recently floating a vague roadmap to ending the conflict. And while most Western allies have been skeptical of the overtures, some countries like France insist China could play a major role in peace talks.

Pavel, a former general and senior NATO leader, was unequivocal, however. When it comes to Ukraine, he argued, China only wants what’s best for itself — and, for now, that’s more war.

“I believe that it is in China’s interest to prolong the status quo,” Pavel said, “because it can push Russia to a number of concessions.”

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Key Takeaways

Senior US and EU officials assess that Russian President Vladimir Putin would remain unwilling to negotiate in response to a successful Ukrainian counteroffensive.

A Ukrainian military official claimed on April 25 that Ukrainian forces are achieving “impressive results” in counter-battery combat against Russian forces on the Russian-occupied eastern (left) bank of the Dnipro River.

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin denied ISW’s April 22 assessment about limited improvements in Wagner’s relations with the Russian military command ahead of the planned Ukrainian counteroffensive.

Russian ultranationalists continue to advocate for the Kremlin to adopt Stalinist repression measures.

The Kremlin continues to avoid adopting overtly repressive measures likely out of concern for the stability of Putin’s regime.

Russian civil rights groups OVD-Info, Memorial, and Rus Sidyashchaya (Russia Behind Bars) issued a legal challenge to the Russian censorship law against discrediting the Russian military on April 25.

Russian sources claimed that Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks on the Svatove-Kremmina line.

Russian forces continued to conduct ground attacks in and around Bakhmut and along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City frontline.

Russian milbloggers continued to issue vehement denials that Ukrainian forces established sustained positions on east (left) bank Kherson Oblast.

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) is attempting to financially incentivize Russian prisoners to fight in Ukraine, offering them compensation equivalent to that of Russian volunteers

The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported that Ukrainian partisans detonated a Russian military checkpoint near Oleshky.

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