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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 3/30/23 at 2:49 pm to upgrayedd
Posted on 3/30/23 at 2:49 pm to upgrayedd
quote:
I just don't see how they can keep on going if Russia really does mount a massive, decently effective offensive. It's going to be interesting to see how many men they can really lose before things go south.
Russia has yet to launch a decently effective offensive in this war. They did launch one in December/January and it appears to be petering out with very little to show for it. They barely moved the front lines beyond some incremental gains around Bakhmut.
1
Posted on 3/30/23 at 2:55 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
Russia has yet to launch a decently effective offensive in this war. They did launch one in December/January and it appears to be petering out with very little to show for it. They barely moved the front lines beyond some incremental gains around Bakhmut.
How many Ukrainians did it cost?
Posted on 3/30/23 at 2:57 pm to upgrayedd
quote:
How many Ukrainians did it cost?
No one knows, the only true metric we have that is pretty clear is how much territory they captured (or didn't).
There are reports that the Ukrainian casualties were high but beyond that ????
ETA: There are also a lot of reports (from Russians) about the high Russian casualties backed up by videos.
This post was edited on 3/30/23 at 2:59 pm
Posted on 3/30/23 at 2:59 pm to upgrayedd
quote:
How many Ukrainians did it cost?
That is for Ukraine to decide and you nor Biden have any say in the manner.
These people are fighting for their freedom.
This post was edited on 3/30/23 at 3:01 pm
Posted on 3/30/23 at 2:59 pm to upgrayedd
Right now both sides still believe they can improve their position on the battlefield so neither are ready for a peace deal
A Ukrainian failed offensive this spring would have an effect of western support. A successful Russian offensive would have an effect on western support.
But Ukraine has been fighting Russia in Ukraine since 2008. It only escalated in 2022 with Russia launching a major offensive. So in their mind they are fighting for their homeland. E me ‘em if west support falters they will still want to continue. However, if Russia breaks the line and make a big breakthrough that could change
Some for Russia, they are content with slow gains and a war of attrition. However if their lines get broken and Ukraine can threaten the land bridge and come in range of crimea bridge Russia May switch it tune. Same for a successful breakthrough in kremmenia area. But Ukraine has to be successful with one or maybe more offensives to get Russia to consider ending this.
A Ukrainian failed offensive this spring would have an effect of western support. A successful Russian offensive would have an effect on western support.
But Ukraine has been fighting Russia in Ukraine since 2008. It only escalated in 2022 with Russia launching a major offensive. So in their mind they are fighting for their homeland. E me ‘em if west support falters they will still want to continue. However, if Russia breaks the line and make a big breakthrough that could change
Some for Russia, they are content with slow gains and a war of attrition. However if their lines get broken and Ukraine can threaten the land bridge and come in range of crimea bridge Russia May switch it tune. Same for a successful breakthrough in kremmenia area. But Ukraine has to be successful with one or maybe more offensives to get Russia to consider ending this.
Posted on 3/30/23 at 3:01 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
No one knows, the only true metric we have that is pretty clear is how much territory they captured (or didn't).
There are reports that the Ukrainian casualties were high but beyond that ????
ETA: There are also a lot of reports (from Russians) about the high Russian casualties backed up by videos
I'm sure there were a lot of Russian casualties as well. What's the Russian-Ukrainian ratio that tips to favor either side? 5:1? 3:1? 7:1?
Posted on 3/30/23 at 3:03 pm to CitizenK
quote:
That is for Ukraine to decide and you nor Biden have any say in the manner.
These people are fighting for their freedom.
Yeah, no one is arguing this.
I'm asking about numbers, which is all this really boils down to.
Posted on 3/30/23 at 3:04 pm to upgrayedd
quote:
How many Ukrainians did it cost
Not enough for the Russians to gain much of any ground.
You'd think a depleted Ukraine might show signs of losing its ability to resist the tide of an effective Russian offensive, but it still seems like they're moving forward with offensive operations planning.
Posted on 3/30/23 at 3:05 pm to upgrayedd
quote:"Peace Sells... but Who's Buying?"
No one, including me, thinks China really wants "peace". They want influence. Brokering a peace deal gives them that influence. We do the same shite, only now China gets the ability to claim it and not us.
Posted on 3/30/23 at 3:07 pm to upgrayedd
quote:
I'm sure there were a lot of Russian casualties as well. What's the Russian-Ukrainian ratio that tips to favor either side? 5:1? 3:1? 7:1?
I have no idea. That would be very difficult to determine as there is a number of intangibles that impact that. Ukraine is fighting for its survival, moral is very high and its troops are committed to the fight.
Russia doesn't have that luxury.
History is full of examples of a lesser force defeating a more powerful force because the lesser force had higher morale. US revolution, Vietnam, Russia/Afghanistan are just a few.
Posted on 3/30/23 at 3:11 pm to BoardReader
quote:
How many Ukrainians did it cost
I do t think it is as much if how many is lost on each side. The questions is at what point either sides believes they have lost too many and won’t continue.
For Ukraine, they view this as a defender whose existence as a diverge nation is at risk. What’re is the threshold of too many under that context
For Russia, they are the invader. Their homeland is not at risk, but their geopolitical clout is. At what point will the ethnic minorities say enough is enough? When Russians from Moscow or at Petersburg start dying in numbers, what is too many losses
Right now they fighting is still proceeding so neither side has hit the tipping points yet. How close are they, still to be seen.
Posted on 3/30/23 at 3:16 pm to upgrayedd
quote:
I'm asking about numbers, which is all this really boils down to.
Best guess is 2:1 but could easily be 3:1. Bakhmut area easily 7:1.
Posted on 3/30/23 at 3:35 pm to tigeraddict
ya'll have let them get a long politicl diatribe going.
Posted on 3/30/23 at 3:36 pm to OutsideObserver
quote:
When asked to provide information such contrary posters either stop posting, resort to name calling or claim the thread is muzzling them, none of which are attempts at actual discussion.
I don't remember who it was with but I got called a child because I asked someone to source a claim. They also stated that they didn't need to source anything and I was just turning his argument against him since he asked me to source something which said he was wrong
Found it
quote:
gmac8604
Green Bay, WI
Member since Jun 2012
657 posts
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine ConflictPosted on 1/21/23 at 10:23 pm to StormyMcMan
LOL you are a child - you try to revolve my arguments at sources back to me, being blind to those who matter that voted for a new republic. Maybe I will wake up and devote energy to showing you truth in the morning, maybe not. Either case, put your thinking cap on.
Btw he was saying he didn't need to source that Kherson was annexed by Ukraine sometime between 2000 and 2019
This post was edited on 3/30/23 at 3:52 pm
Posted on 3/30/23 at 4:03 pm to Chromdome35
Ukraine still needs to be able to sustain its economy once the war is over.
Looking ahead, Russia seems hellbent on squeezing the life out of Ukraine’s economy by maintaining naval control over the ports in the Black Sea, and thereby controlling the exports.
How does Ukraine accept Russia keeping Crimea, when Russia’s Black Sea Fleet based in Crimea represents an existential threat to Ukraine’s future?
Looking ahead, Russia seems hellbent on squeezing the life out of Ukraine’s economy by maintaining naval control over the ports in the Black Sea, and thereby controlling the exports.
How does Ukraine accept Russia keeping Crimea, when Russia’s Black Sea Fleet based in Crimea represents an existential threat to Ukraine’s future?
Posted on 3/30/23 at 4:19 pm to AGGIES
quote:
Ukraine still needs to be able to sustain its economy once the war is over.
"Tech" is a significant part of its economy. As to rebuilding, Europe has already committed to fund several hundred billion for rebuilding.
I have been personally contacted by entities to relocate idle manufacturing to destroyed portions (much of the agricultural processing was being performed by Turkish companies eager to jump back in especially sunflower oil)
Posted on 3/30/23 at 4:37 pm to CitizenK
Finland has now joined NATO. The biggest blunder by Putin so far. Had he never invaded, Finland would have never joined.
Congrats on the Baltic states too as they now have a strong partner to defend the seas around them.
Congrats on the Baltic states too as they now have a strong partner to defend the seas around them.
Posted on 3/30/23 at 4:48 pm to jfan244888
quote:
Finland has now joined NATO. The biggest blunder by Putin so far. Had he never invaded, Finland would have never joined.
Many of the anti Ukes here go on and on about US involvement as if we are the only nation helping Ukraine, but we have historically independent nations like Finland and Sweden helping too. Russia has threatened the peace that Europe has enjoyed. These nations see that. It’s not just the US.
Posted on 3/30/23 at 5:05 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
100% victory for Ukraine would be pushing Russia out of Ukraine and recapturing Crimea. I do not believe Ukraine can achieve this. I do think Ukraine has a chance to take back everything but Crimea. Ukraine will be overwhelmingly victorious if they can do that.
Ukraine has what it needs to execute a successful offensive this spring. If they attack in the South and reach the Sea of Azov, they will be able to hit Kerch and make Russian life in Crimea very difficult.
But Ukraine does not have the equipment to follow up a successful spring offensive with another one. If they are successful (and it won't be easy), their allies will provide another round of equipment, and then the next stage of the war will begin.
Crimea, as with any other territory that Ukraine wishes to reclaim, is dependent upon the kind of weapons that it is provided and the length of the war.
If Ukraine gets ATACMS, F-16s, more Abrams and Bradleys, etc. -- and if they get similar equipment from our NATO allies -- then they can retake whatever they want. But it's a real question if they get any of that, even with a successful spring offensive.
Posted on 3/30/23 at 5:06 pm to jfan244888
quote:
Finland has now joined NATO. The biggest blunder by Putin so far. Had he never invaded, Finland would have never joined.
I'm not sure a lot of people in the US truly appreciate what a sensational 180 this is. Finland is a country that cares so little about international norms that they don't even have mandatory standardized exams in their education system. Their single greatest cultural traits are risk-aversion, independence, and multilateral relations.
I honestly never thought I'd live in a world with Finland joining NATO.
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