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Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 3/30/23 at 12:29 pm to upgrayedd
Posted on 3/30/23 at 12:29 pm to upgrayedd
quote:
No, the hit comes from China actually demonstrating a willingness to bring peace
Please stop.
Do you know why China wants "peace"? Because Russia is now a welfare state of China. Russia is now a big drain on the Chinese economy which without the Russian leeching doesnt have strong fundamentals.
What is the number 1 item in China's "peace plan"? removal of all economic sanction imposed by the West on Russia and Russian business.
Russia is done, they can keep selling oil for 40 cents on the dollar and tread water in the near term but long term they are done. Now China owns a long term failed state, thats expensive and why they want "peace".
1
Posted on 3/30/23 at 12:34 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
“Before, they could assault in all directions simultaneously and in groups of not less than 20, 30 or 40 people, but gradually it is dying down.”
Posted on 3/30/23 at 1:09 pm to AllDayEveryDay
LINK
LINK
Also, Germany confirmed the delivery of:
- 2 Wisent 1 Mine-Clearing Tanks
As we know, mine-clearing equipment will be critical to the success of Ukraine's spring offensive. NATO countries have been giving a lot of it lately.
quote:EDIT: several of these are inoperable and will be used for spare parts. It's unknown how many are airworthy.
The government of North Macedonia has officially approved the transfer of 12 Mi-24 attack helicopters to Ukraine.
LINK
quote:(not technically military aid, but in reality helps logistics)
Norway will hand over 12 diesel trains to Ukraine by the end of the year. "We will be able to send four of them (diesel trains) by the summer and probably 8 more during the year," said Norwegian Transport Minister Jon-Ivar Nygård.
Also, Germany confirmed the delivery of:
- 2 Wisent 1 Mine-Clearing Tanks
As we know, mine-clearing equipment will be critical to the success of Ukraine's spring offensive. NATO countries have been giving a lot of it lately.
This post was edited on 3/30/23 at 1:10 pm
Posted on 3/30/23 at 1:14 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
I disagree with you on this.
Ukraine does have a chance without global war breaking out. IF (and that is a big if) Ukraine can launch a successful spring/summer offensive and push Russia back, then they have a serious chance to win. If their offensive fails to achieve this, then they will have to reach a settlement with Russia. Neither of these outcomes requires a global war
Its pretty much a Western Front style war of attrition. Unless Russian morale totally collapses, Ukraine will require foreign bodies.
offenses usually take higher casualties than defenses in these kind of entrenched battles. THe offensive will be brutal..
This post was edited on 3/30/23 at 1:16 pm
Posted on 3/30/23 at 1:26 pm to RogerTheShrubber
quote:
Its pretty much a Western Front style war of attrition.
This is only true at Bakhmut, and the war of mobility will resume once Russia retreats from Bakhmut entirely next month.
Posted on 3/30/23 at 1:27 pm to RogerTheShrubber
quote:
offenses usually take higher casualties than defenses in these kind of entrenched battles. THe offensive will be brutal..
I don't disagree with you on this.
quote:
Unless Russian morale totally collapses, Ukraine will require foreign bodies.
I do disagree with you on this. Russian morale is very low and falling. I base this on the video and commentary from the various Russian telegram channels I follow and the intercepts of Russian soldiers' phone calls back home.
Ukraine has done a very good job of keeping its casualty rates hidden so we don't really know how attritted they are. We do know they are in the process of forming 3 corp for their spring offensive, that fact lends itself to the "they have enough manpower to do that so they must not be hurting that bad" line of thinking.
We do know that Russia began the war with close to 200K troops, mobilized another 300k, and now rumors are out there that they are talking about mobilizing another 400K. The biggest problem of which is that they have a much-degraded capacity to train or equip them.
Ukraine doesn't have issues with the training or equipping as the west is providing both.
This upcoming offensive is the key, Ukraine probably doesn't have enough manpower to mount another one if this one fails.
This post was edited on 3/30/23 at 1:34 pm
Posted on 3/30/23 at 1:30 pm to RogerTheShrubber
Video from Ukraine's 36th Marine Brigade showing Javelin ATGM and artillery strikes on a Russian armored column.
YouTube
YouTube
Posted on 3/30/23 at 1:34 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
quote:
Norway will hand over 12 diesel trains to Ukraine by the end of the year. "We will be able to send four of them (diesel trains) by the summer and probably 8 more during the year," said Norwegian Transport Minister Jon-Ivar Nygård.
(not technically military aid, but in reality helps logistics)
Anyone know how easy it easy to switch rail gauges on these things? Quick Google search says Norway uses 1,435 mm and Ukraine uses 1,520 mm
Posted on 3/30/23 at 1:37 pm to cypher
Solid turret toss entry at 2:12
Posted on 3/30/23 at 1:50 pm to Chromdome35
So this is why the regulars in the thread call some of you trolls.
You make a statement in the thread and someone asks you respectfully to explain your position. You go dark and don't ever respond. Yet you want to bitch about people here being myopic and unwilling to engage in discussion. This is a pattern seen over and over and over and over in this thread.
Everyone here is willing to DISCUSS the war, but both sides have to be willing to do so in order to have a conversation.
Now, I'm willing to give you the time to respond; but, you had been very active in the thread up until I asked you to explain yourself, you never responded, but made multiple posts on TD in other threads.
My question still stands, why do you say this is nonsense?
ETA: I just realized I responded to myself instead of Imjsutafatkid. This was directed in response to Imjustafatkid.
You make a statement in the thread and someone asks you respectfully to explain your position. You go dark and don't ever respond. Yet you want to bitch about people here being myopic and unwilling to engage in discussion. This is a pattern seen over and over and over and over in this thread.
Everyone here is willing to DISCUSS the war, but both sides have to be willing to do so in order to have a conversation.
Now, I'm willing to give you the time to respond; but, you had been very active in the thread up until I asked you to explain yourself, you never responded, but made multiple posts on TD in other threads.
My question still stands, why do you say this is nonsense?
quote:
Russia's armed forces have been exposed, and no longer have the capability for serious offensives.
This is complete nonsense.
quote:
I would truly like to understand your basis for saying this is nonsense. What are you basing your statement on?
ETA: I just realized I responded to myself instead of Imjsutafatkid. This was directed in response to Imjustafatkid.
This post was edited on 3/30/23 at 1:54 pm
Posted on 3/30/23 at 1:52 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
Russia's armed forces have been exposed, and no longer have the capability for serious offensives.
This is complete nonsense.
quote:
I would truly like to understand your basis for saying this is nonsense. What are you basing your statement on?
Pravda.
Posted on 3/30/23 at 1:56 pm to cypher
no infantry support.... no air support..... just armor in a column that then operate ndepedantly....no cohesions at all...
Posted on 3/30/23 at 1:56 pm to Lakeboy7
quote:
Do you know why China wants "peace"? Because Russia is now a welfare state of China. Russia is now a big drain on the Chinese economy which without the Russian leeching doesnt have strong fundamentals.
What is the number 1 item in China's "peace plan"? removal of all economic sanction imposed by the West on Russia and Russian business.
Russia is done, they can keep selling oil for 40 cents on the dollar and tread water in the near term but long term they are done. Now China owns a long term failed state, thats expensive and why they want "peace".
No one, including me, thinks China really wants "peace". They want influence. Brokering a peace deal gives them that influence. We do the same shite, only now China gets the ability to claim it and not us.
Posted on 3/30/23 at 2:08 pm to upgrayedd
“Peace” is really just another way to say Ukraine must surrender their land to Russia.
It means allowing Russia to keep what they are still fighting to control right now.
It means allowing Russia to keep what they are still fighting to control right now.
Posted on 3/30/23 at 2:17 pm to GOP_Tiger
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/03/30/russia-seeking-munitions-from-north-korea-00089672
quote:
Russia seeking munitions from North Korea, Kirby says
The development comes as Moscow burns through ammunition in Ukraine.
quote:
Russia is seeking to acquire more munitions from North Korea to bolster its war on Ukraine, the White House revealed on Thursday.
The development comes as Moscow has sought help from other countries such as Iran as it continues to expend equipment and ammunition on the battlefield.
In a briefing with reporters, National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said Vladimir Putin would likely send food to Pyongyang in exchange for the munitions.
“We remain concerned that North Korea will provide further support and Russia’s military operations against Ukraine and we have new information that Russia is actively seeking to acquire additional munitions from North Korea,” he said.
Russia is exhausting its stores of ammunition while locked in an inch-by-inch battle for territory in Ukraine’s south and east. The battle for Bakhmut, a town in the Donbas, has slowed any Russian advances, requiring forces to expend their ammo and artillery before reaching more consequential areas.
The assistance from North Korea would help Moscow’s forces refill its stockpiles ahead of an expected offensive by Ukraine in the spring.
Posted on 3/30/23 at 2:20 pm to AGGIES
quote:
“Peace” is really just another way to say Ukraine must surrender their land to Russia.
It means allowing Russia to keep what they are still fighting to control right now.
So how long do you think this should go on and what is the metric by which you would declare a victory?
Posted on 3/30/23 at 2:27 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
So this is why the regulars in the thread call some of you trolls.
You make a statement in the thread and someone asks you respectfully to explain your position. You go dark and don't ever respond. Yet you want to bitch about people here being myopic and unwilling to engage in discussion. This is a pattern seen over and over and over and over in this thread.
Everyone here is willing to DISCUSS the war, but both sides have to be willing to do so in order to have a conversation.
Now, I'm willing to give you the time to respond; but, you had been very active in the thread up until I asked you to explain yourself, you never responded, but made multiple posts on TD in other threads.
My question still stands, why do you say this is nonsense?
Agreed, I welcome the dissenting views and believe most on this board do as well, provided those views are backed up with data or information that supports them.
However the majority of those views are either overtly antagonistic one liners trying derail the thread, or never offer actual information beyond their opinion that they are right and whoever they are in disagreement with at the time, is wrong. When asked to provide information such contrary posters either stop posting, resort to name calling or claim the thread is muzzling them, none of which are attempts at actual discussion.
Most of the regulars on this thread, including those that have views contrary to the majority of the thread have been posting about and following the ebbs and flows of the war since it began, they have strongly formed views based on over a year of data and information from across the information sphere. Challenging those is going to require a similar effort and simply jumping in and saying that they are wrong does not cut it.
Posted on 3/30/23 at 2:37 pm to upgrayedd
quote:
So how long do you think this should go on and what is the metric by which you would declare a victory?
For Russia victory at this point would mean keeping what they currently have control over. That is far short of what they stated their goals were at the start of the conflict so I think while it would be a Russian victory it would be a pyrrhic victory.
For Ukraine, If the war were to end today at current lines, it would also be a pyrrhic victory. They prevented Russia from taking the country but have suffered the loss of part of their country and the destruction of cities, civilians and infrastructure.
100% victory for Ukraine would be pushing Russia out of Ukraine and recapturing Crimea. I do not believe Ukraine can achieve this. I do think Ukraine has a chance to take back everything but Crimea. Ukraine will be overwhelmingly victorious if they can do that.
If Ukraine can force Russia to return to the lines that existed at the start of 2022, then that would also be a victory for Ukraine, but lessor than the former scenario.
How long? If you are Ukraine as long as it takes. Realistically, they have to do it this year as time is not on their side. They will lose western support if the war goes longer.
Posted on 3/30/23 at 2:39 pm to OutsideObserver
quote:
Agreed, I welcome the dissenting views and believe most on this board do as well, provided those views are backed up with data or information that supports them.
However the majority of those views are either overtly antagonistic one liners trying derail the thread, or never offer actual information beyond their opinion that they are right and whoever they are in disagreement with at the time, is wrong. When asked to provide information such contrary posters either stop posting, resort to name calling or claim the thread is muzzling them, none of which are attempts at actual discussion.
Most of the regulars on this thread, including those that have views contrary to the majority of the thread have been posting about and following the ebbs and flows of the war since it began, they have strongly formed views based on over a year of data and information from across the information sphere. Challenging those is going to require a similar effort and simply jumping in and saying that they are wrong does not cut it.
Well said
Posted on 3/30/23 at 2:46 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
For Russia victory at this point would mean keeping what they currently have control over. That is far short of what they stated their goals were at the start of the conflict so I think while it would be a Russian victory it would be a pyrrhic victory.
For Ukraine, If the war were to end today at current lines, it would also be a pyrrhic victory. They prevented Russia from taking the country but have suffered the loss of part of their country and the destruction of cities, civilians and infrastructure.
100% victory for Ukraine would be pushing Russia out of Ukraine and recapturing Crimea. I do not believe Ukraine can achieve this. I do think Ukraine has a chance to take back everything but Crimea. Ukraine will be overwhelmingly victorious if they can do that.
If Ukraine can force Russia to return to the lines that existed at the start of 2022, then that would also be a victory for Ukraine, but lessor than the former scenario.
Yeah, I agree that many of those goals are completely unrealistic. Some are possible but will only be achieved by expending a lot of lives.
quote:I just don't see how they can keep on going if Russia really does mount a massive, decently effective offensive. It's going to be interesting to see how many men they can really lose before things go south.
How long? If you are Ukraine as long as it takes. Realistically, they have to do it this year as time is not on their side. They will lose western support if the war goes longer.
quote:I tend to agree. Saw a clip of members of Austria's parliament walking out on a Zelensky speech. Not sure of the total context, however.
They will lose western support if the war goes longer.
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