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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Posted on 3/30/23 at 10:40 am to
Posted by REG861
Ocelot, Iowa
Member since Oct 2011
38159 posts
Posted on 3/30/23 at 10:40 am to
quote:

s. I'm also curious as to what is considered a victory at the end of a Ukrainian offensive.


Given Putin’s goal was absorption of the entire Ukrainian state, if they were to restore to pre-war /pre- invasion borders or at least the majority of them I think that would be a victory. I don’t think reclaiming crimea through military means is realistic or necessary at this point. Ukraine retaining its sovereignty is a victory in my opinion.
This post was edited on 3/30/23 at 10:42 am
Posted by BambiisDead
Member since Mar 2023
188 posts
Posted on 3/30/23 at 10:41 am to
I agree.

I think a more realistic and useful goal is to get the Donbass back.
Posted by upgrayedd
Lifting at Tobin's house
Member since Mar 2013
138898 posts
Posted on 3/30/23 at 10:42 am to
quote:

This supports my argument.

NATO wants to support Ukraine enough to prevent Russian victory, but not enough to enable Ukranian victory, at least not yet.

Sounds like the US is driving the policy of a prolonged war and NATO is doing as their told, for the moment. They'll eventually have enough of that.
Posted by Palantir
I've been a Columbia House
Member since Oct 2020
691 posts
Posted on 3/30/23 at 10:42 am to
quote:

Only Russia can stop the war. China can’t.

Now China can come and be the broker here, they could give Putin an exit, but they can’t stop the war.
Yeah, if China has to come in and broker a peace deal for Russia in order for Russia to save face because of Putin's inability to topple the poorest country in Europe, then I don't see how it's the USA that takes the hit here.
Posted by doubleb
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2006
42606 posts
Posted on 3/30/23 at 10:44 am to
quote:

While obviously suffering lare casualties, its really hard to grind and industrial society into dust when its mobilized for war. I have no doubt Ukraine has lost a lot of men. I do think it will take longer than one year though before we start worrying if their society is going to tap out

Many do not comprehend the fear Ukrainians have of the Russians. They remember the millions of their kin who were “murdered” by Stalin.

I firmly believe Ukrainians will fight with every breath to stop Russia. They are the underdog. They are against a bigger and stronger foe, but they are motivated. They won’t quit until it’s over.
Posted by upgrayedd
Lifting at Tobin's house
Member since Mar 2013
138898 posts
Posted on 3/30/23 at 10:44 am to
quote:

Now China can come and be the broker here, they could give Putin an exit, but they can’t stop the war.


That's what I was trying to say. China to be a broker for peace. Our influence takes a massive hit if that happens.
Posted by upgrayedd
Lifting at Tobin's house
Member since Mar 2013
138898 posts
Posted on 3/30/23 at 10:46 am to
quote:

Given Putin’s goal was absorption of the entire Ukrainian state, if they were to restore to pre-war /pre- invasion borders or at least the majority of them I think that would be a victory. I don’t think reclaiming crimea through military means is realistic or necessary at this point. Ukraine retaining its sovereignty is a victory in my opinion.

So a Ukrainian victory after this offensive is all pre-2014 borders with the exception of Crimea?

What are the odds of that being accomplished?
Posted by BambiisDead
Member since Mar 2023
188 posts
Posted on 3/30/23 at 10:46 am to
There won't be peace so long as the possibility for Ukranian victory remains.

We will string them along with a carrot on a stick until our own purposes have been served, as well we should.
Posted by Palantir
I've been a Columbia House
Member since Oct 2020
691 posts
Posted on 3/30/23 at 10:47 am to
quote:

That's what I was trying to say. China to be a broker for peace. Our influence takes a massive hit if that happens.
I do not understand this line of thinking...so if China has to broker a peace deal because Russia couldn't overtake the poorest country in Europe in at least a year (so far), that's a hit on USA influence?
Posted by upgrayedd
Lifting at Tobin's house
Member since Mar 2013
138898 posts
Posted on 3/30/23 at 10:48 am to
quote:

There won't be peace so long as the possibility for Ukranian victory remains.

We will string them along with a carrot on a stick until our own purposes have been served, as well we should.


That's a dangerous fricking game. If we continue to torpedo any and all peace deals, our perception across the globe is going to take another massive hit.
Posted by doubleb
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2006
42606 posts
Posted on 3/30/23 at 10:49 am to
quote:

I'm just curious as to how long Ukraine can sustain itself with personnel and supplies. NATO is exhausting their stockpiles and doesn't appear to be transitioning into wartime production. Hell, the Bundeswehr can't properly equip their own men right now. Those supplies will dwindle even further with a sustained offensive as will Ukraine's supply of soldiers. I'm also curious as to what is considered a victory at the end of a Ukrainian offensive.


No doubt there are a lot of unknowns, but one thing we do know is that if driven Western capitalism will outdo socialist Russia production.

I think supplies, and weapons are a big question mark for both sides. Getting gear is important and getting it ftom the rear to the front is important also. Abd most important is having motivated troops to fight.
Posted by BambiisDead
Member since Mar 2023
188 posts
Posted on 3/30/23 at 10:51 am to
That's a small price to pay in exchange for the nine dash line.

Theyll get over it.
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
20967 posts
Posted on 3/30/23 at 10:51 am to
Story in today's NY Times:

LINK

Ukrainians Directing Soldiers From a Hidden Hub See Bakhmut Going Their Way
quote:




Hidden in the bowels of an unmarked building, set well back from the fighting, a command center directing operations in the city of Bakhmut was high-tech and humming. Soldiers monitored video screens with live feeds of destroyed buildings and a cratered battlefield.

Six weeks after coming to help defend Bakhmut, the men of the Adam Tactical Group, one of Ukraine’s most effective battle units, were quietly confident they had turned the tide against Russian troops trying to encircle and capture it.

“The enemy exhausted all its reserves,” the commander, Col. Yevhen Mezhevikin, 40, said on Tuesday, straddling a chair as artillery, air defense and intelligence-gathering teams worked around him.
quote:

But now, Colonel Mezhevikin said, the Russian assaults have slowed and the imminent threat of encirclement has been thwarted. “The density of assaults dropped by several times,” he said. “Before, they could assault in all directions simultaneously and in groups of not less than 20, 30 or 40 people, but gradually it is dying down.”
quote:

Colonel Mezhevikin said that he was confident that Ukrainian forces could keep holding the city and push Russian troops back farther. If the Ukrainians hold their recent gains, the battles of the last month at Bakhmut could prove a turning point in Ukraine’s defense against Russia, not only stalling the latest Russian offensive but also in setting themselves up to deliver a knockout blow, he said.

Fresh Ukrainian attack brigades were completing training, he said. “We are holding the enemy here for a bit more, and let them knock them back,” he said, referring to the new troops.
quote:

On the city’s northern and southern flanks, where Russian troops had tried to encircle Bakhmut in a pincers movement, the Russians were coming up against Ukraine’s most motivated units and no longer had momentum, he said.

“When they try to reinforce their units, to rotate, they are being destroyed at the very start,” he added.
The center of Bakhmut, however, remained a hot spot where Russian troops were still attacking with significant force, the commander said: “All that’s left for them is to try to advance through the city, because the buildings protect them from fire.”
Posted by duggieblue
GA
Member since Feb 2010
4365 posts
Posted on 3/30/23 at 10:51 am to
Speaking of what may happen on the streets of Russia when Wagner convicts returning home from the front… Ivan Rossomahin, who was in prison for murder, returned home and has been arrested for murder after terrorizing his village for several days. The link is an English Twitter thread with 3 interviews of concerned citizens in Russian.

LINK
Posted by Palantir
I've been a Columbia House
Member since Oct 2020
691 posts
Posted on 3/30/23 at 10:53 am to
quote:

Speaking of what may happen on the streets of Russia when Wagner convicts returning home from the front… Ivan Rossomahin, who was in prison for murder, returned home and has been arrested for murder after terrorizing his village for several days. The link is an English Twitter thread with 3 interviews of concerned citizens in Russian.
Yeah - I've seen plenty of videos where the Wagner fellas are unable to assimilate back in to society once returning home.
Posted by upgrayedd
Lifting at Tobin's house
Member since Mar 2013
138898 posts
Posted on 3/30/23 at 10:54 am to
quote:

I do not understand this line of thinking...so if China has to broker a peace deal because Russia couldn't overtake the poorest country in Europe in at least a year (so far), that's a hit on USA influence?

No, the hit comes from China actually demonstrating a willingness to bring peace. We've been tear-assing all over the globe for the last several decades under the guise of "bringing peace" yet all we've been doing is intentionally prolonging this war. China looks like the peace proponent in that scenario, not us.
Posted by upgrayedd
Lifting at Tobin's house
Member since Mar 2013
138898 posts
Posted on 3/30/23 at 10:55 am to
quote:

No doubt there are a lot of unknowns, but one thing we do know is that if driven Western capitalism will outdo socialist Russia production.

They're already buying back Russian-made weapons they sold to China.

quote:

I think supplies, and weapons are a big question mark for both sides. Getting gear is important and getting it ftom the rear to the front is important also. Abd most important is having motivated troops to fight.
Yeah, the troop attrition rate is going to be interesting to watch.
Posted by DabosDynasty
Member since Apr 2017
5180 posts
Posted on 3/30/23 at 10:56 am to
quote:

It will only be because of our proxy war with Russia that we should not have started. No matter what you think about the Ukraine situation, staying out of it was the best move.


I’ve tried to stay out of these convos, but this is just disingenuous and in ignorance of all the other economic and political factors we have ourselves been party to.

Nevermind the explosion of US debt and inflation.

Nevermind, aside from our support for Ukraine, the global weakness portrayed by this admin, especially as it relates to soft power and appearance of competency.

Nevermind our own internal constant state of division of pendulum swinging of the last 2+ decades of govt leadership.

Nevermind all the other smaller wars and interventions we’ve been involved in.

Nevermind China’s own real and rapid rise economically and militarily. A rise like China has experienced coupled with the sort of social decline we’ve experienced is generally paired with these sorts of transitions, but they are not overnight.

Nothing is single issue, but our society has been conditioned to knee jerk respond to any single issue as though it’s the all encompassing reason for all of our problems. This is no different.
Posted by BambiisDead
Member since Mar 2023
188 posts
Posted on 3/30/23 at 10:57 am to
Wagner is a spent force.

The Russian winter offensive was a failure, meanwhile Prigozhin has informed Putin that the Ukrainians have 200,000 men ready for the spring offensive.
Posted by upgrayedd
Lifting at Tobin's house
Member since Mar 2013
138898 posts
Posted on 3/30/23 at 10:57 am to
quote:

That's a small price to pay in exchange for the nine dash line.

Theyll get over it.

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