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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Posted on 3/9/23 at 11:53 pm to
Posted by Jim Rockford
Member since May 2011
105473 posts
Posted on 3/9/23 at 11:53 pm to
Any elite formations (which clearly weren't all that elite to begin with) have so many conscript replacements by now that there's little difference between them and other units.
Posted by LSUPilot07
Member since Feb 2022
8657 posts
Posted on 3/10/23 at 1:46 am to
How hilarious would it be for Ukraine’s planned big upcoming offensive starts right at Bakhmut? All the bridge laying machines being sent signaling a big push in the south over flat ground and it ends up being right at the spot where Russia has been trying to capture the entire winter. That would be the biggest mind frick. I don’t think that will happen of course but it sure as shite would be funny.
Posted by StormyMcMan
USA
Member since Oct 2016
4691 posts
Posted on 3/10/23 at 3:06 am to
ISW

quote:

Russian forces conducted the largest missile strike across Ukraine of 2023 so far on March 9, but the attack likely only served Russian state propaganda objectives. Ukrainian military officials reported that Russian forces targeted Ukrainian critical infrastructure with 84 different missiles including 28 Kh-101/Kh-555 and 20 Kalibr cruise missiles, six Kh-22 anti-ship missiles, six Kh-47 Kinzhal hypersonic missiles, two Kh-31P supersonic anti-ship missiles, six Kh-59 guided missiles, and at least 13 S-300 air-defense missiles.[1] Russian forces also attacked Ukraine with eight Iranian-made Shahed–136 drones, which Ukrainian officials noted likely sought to distract Ukrainian air defense systems before the missile strikes.[2] Ukrainian forces reportedly shot down 34 of the 48 Kalibr and Kh-101/Kh-555 cruise missiles and four Shahed-136 drones.[3] Ukrainian officials also noted that all eight of the Kh-31P and Kh-59 missiles did not reach their intended targets. Ukrainian Air Force Spokesperson Yuriy Ihnat noted that Ukrainian forces did not have the capacity to shoot down some of the Russian missiles—likely referring to Kinzhal and S-300 missiles.[4] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces conducted “high precision long range air, sea, and land-based missile strikes” targeting Ukrainian military infrastructure, military-industrial complexes, and energy infrastructure supporting the Ukrainian military as retaliation for the alleged incursion into Bryansk Oblast on March 2.[5]

Ukrainian officials, Russian milbloggers, and social media footage indicate that Russian forces overwhelmingly targeted energy infrastructure across Ukraine. The head of the Ukrainian state electricity transmission operator Ukrenergo, Volodymyr Kudrynskyi, stated that Russian missile strikes once again targeted Ukrainian energy infrastructure, but yet again failed to achieve Russia’s ongoing goal of destroying Ukrainian power supplies.[6] Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal stated that Russian strikes hit eight energy sites resulting in power outages in some areas of the country

The Kremlin likely deliberately launched missiles that Ukrainian air defenses cannot intercept to achieve results within the Russian information space despite the dwindling supplies of such missiles. Ihnat noted that Russia has up to 50 Kinzhal missiles and had used some missiles that it cannot replace. Russian President Vladimir Putin likely used these scarce missiles in fruitless attacks to appease the Russian pro-war and ultranationalist communities, which have overwhelmingly called on him to retaliate for the Bryansk Oblast incident on March 2.[10] Russian milbloggers and propagandists have also criticized the Russian missile campaign for failing to make Ukraine “freeze” over the winter in late February and early March before the spring season


quote:

Russian forces likely advanced northwest of Bakhmut on March 9 amidst a likely increased tempo of Russian offensive operations in the area. Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed that Wagner Group fighters completely captured Dubovo-Vasylivka (6km northwest of Bakhmut), and geolocated footage published on March 9 indicates that Wagner forces likely captured the settlement.[13]The likely capture of Dubovo-Vasylivka corresponds with the potentially increased tempo of Russian offensive operations northwest of Bakhmut in recent days.[14] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted at least 30 percent of their assaults in Ukraine northwest of Bakhmut on March 8.[15] The Ukrainian General Staff has not reported Russian assaults near Khromove since March 1, and Ukrainian forces have reportedly reestablished river crossings in the area after Russian forces reportedly destroyed a bridge in the area on March 4


quote:

The Wagner Group’s offensive operation in eastern Bakhmut appears to have entered a temporary tactical pause and it remains unclear if Wagner fighters will retain their operational preponderance in future Russian offensives in the city. There have been no reports of Wagner fighters conducting offensive operations from eastern Bakhmut into central parts of the city since Russian forces captured all of eastern Bakhmut located east of the Bakhmutka River on March 7.[17] Wagner fighters have been conducting highly attritional frontal assaults on eastern Bakhmut for nine months and are likely not prepared to conduct a crossing of the Bakhmutka River to the Bakhmut city center at this time


quote:

Russian forces may be preparing to resume offensive operations around Vuhledar, although persistent personnel and ammunition issues will likely continue to constrain Russian forces from advancing. Social media footage published on March 8 reportedly shows personnel of the 136th Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 58th Combined Arms Army of the Southern Military District appealing to the Russian military command for more artillery ammunition before they replace the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade of the Pacific Fleet near Vuhledar and conduct ground attacks in the area.[19] The 155th Naval Infantry Brigade bore a significant proportion of the catastrophic losses that Russian forces suffered in their culminated three-week February offensive to capture Vuheldar and has reportedly been reconstituted at least seven times since the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine


quote:

Internal dynamics within the Russian military may be driving the potential resumption of costly offensives near Vuhledar that promise little operational benefit. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu reportedly ordered Eastern Military District (EMD) commander Colonel General Rustam Muradov to take Vuhledar at any cost to settle widespread criticism within the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) about the lack of progress and significant losses in the Vuhledar area.[22] Shoigu recently visited Muradov in western Donetsk Oblast likely to assess the viability of the Vuhledar offensive as well as Muradov’s continued role as EMD commander


quote:

Russian authorities are likely establishing volunteer-based military formations under Russian state-owned energy companies in order to distribute responsibility and accountability for managing units, alleviate burdens on the national budget and regional budgets, and draw on the financial resources of those entities. The BBC reported on March 9 that the Russian Tax Service entered the Zaporizhia-based Sudoplatov volunteer battalion into the register of Russian legal entities—making the battalion a state unitary enterprise.[26] The BBC added that the Russian Tax Service registered the battalion under the same address as state-owned enterprises Tavria-Energo and State Grain Operator.[27] The registration may be connected to the emerging Kremlin effort to establish a state-controlled armed formation analogous to the Russian Combat Army Reserve (BARS) units under Gazprom subsidiary Gazprom Neft.[28] The creation of state-controlled military formations legally nested under energy companies could allow the Kremlin to reduce logistical burdens on the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and regional administrations, delegate clear responsibility for recruitment, recruit volunteers without committing additional federal funding, and provide a hedge against the limitations of the Wagner Group private military company (PMC


Posted by StormyMcMan
USA
Member since Oct 2016
4691 posts
Posted on 3/10/23 at 3:07 am to
quote:

The Transnistrian occupation government accused the Ukrainian government of plotting to kill Transnistria’s president, likely as part of the ongoing Russian information operations to undermine Ukrainian credibility and destabilize Moldova. The Transnistrian occupation Ministry of Security Services accused six people, including Ukrainian nationals and Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) personnel, on March 9 of plotting to assassinate senior Transnistrian occupation officials and the occupation head Vadim Krasnoselsky.[30] The SBU stated that the Transnistrian authorities’ accusation is a Kremlin information provocation


quote:

Key Takeaways

Russian forces conducted the largest missile strike across Ukraine of 2023 likely only to advance Russian state propaganda objectives.

Russian forces likely advanced northwest of Bakhmut amid a likely increased tempo of Russian offensive operations in the area

The Wagner Group’s offensive operation in eastern Bakhmut appears to have entered a temporary tactical pause and it remains unclear if Wagner fighters will retain their operational preponderance in future Russian offensives in the city.

Russian forces may be preparing to resume offensive operations around Vuhledar, although persistent personnel and ammunition issues will likely continue to constrain Russian forces from advancing.

Internal dynamics within the Russian military may be driving the potential resumption of costly offensives near Vuhledar that offer little prospect of operational benefit.

Russian authorities are likely formalizing structures to create and coopt volunteer-based military formations under state-owned energy companies in order to distribute accountability, reduce burdens on the national budget, and avoid sanctions.

The Transnistrian occupation government accused the Ukrainian government of involvement in a claimed terrorist plot, likely as part of the Russian information operations to undermine Ukrainian credibility and destabilize Moldova.

Russian forces continued to conduct ground attacks throughout the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line.

Russian forces continued offensive operations in and around Bakhmut but have not completed a turning movement or enveloped or encircled the city.

Russian forces continued offensive operations along the outskirts of Donetsk City and near Vuhledar

Russian strikes completely disconnected the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) in Enerhodar, Zaporizhia Oblast, from all external power sources for 10 hours.

Ukrainian officials reported that Russian occupation authorities are preparing for a spring 2023 mobilization wave in occupied areas of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts that may include male teenagers born in 2006.

Russian officials and occupation authorities are continuing efforts to integrate occupied territories into the Russian political and bureaucratic systems.
Posted by cypher
Member since Sep 2014
5724 posts
Posted on 3/10/23 at 4:36 am to
British Defence Intelligence
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 10 March 2023
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE

On 9 March 2023, Russia conducted a wave of at least 80 long-range strikes against Ukrainian critical infrastructure. Russia deployed cruise missiles, air defence missiles in a surface-surface role, Iranian one way attack uncrewed aerial vehicles, and an unusually large number of hypersonic air-launched ballistic missiles during the attack.

This was the first major wave of long-range strikes since 16 February 2023 and likely one of the largest since December 2022. Ukrainian officials reported at least 11 civilians killed.

The interval between waves of strikes is probably growing because Russia now needs to stockpile a critical mass of newly produced missiles directly from industry before it can resource a strike big enough to credibly overwhelm Ukrainian air defences.
Posted by RollTide1987
Baltimore, MD
Member since Nov 2009
71327 posts
Posted on 3/10/23 at 4:48 am to
quote:

This was just a feint by Russia


That's actually a talking point about Kiev. Which I find absolutely hilarious.
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
21024 posts
Posted on 3/10/23 at 6:59 am to
quote:

Russian military "guy" on Skabeyeva's show talking about Ukraine's significant advantage in drones.



And that ratio is going to get much, much worse for Russia. The West is buying hundreds of millions of dollars worth of drones for Ukraine.
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8182 posts
Posted on 3/10/23 at 7:00 am to
I know, hence my sarcasm
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8182 posts
Posted on 3/10/23 at 7:10 am to
Video of the first use of a JDAM in Ukraine. They make a really big boom.

https://mobile.twitter.com/TheDeadDistrict/status/1634143055551909890
Posted by Mr Happy
Member since May 2019
2732 posts
Posted on 3/10/23 at 7:14 am to
The Economist estimates there have been about 60-70k Russian fatalities. I assume they are more accurate than most other estimates.
article from The Economist

SIAP
This post was edited on 3/10/23 at 7:18 am
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
16110 posts
Posted on 3/10/23 at 8:03 am to
Russia's missile attack blew up an old Soviet jet on a stick

Nice targeting of vital infrastructure, comrades.

LINK
Posted by aTmTexas Dillo
East Texas Lake
Member since Sep 2018
24287 posts
Posted on 3/10/23 at 8:10 am to
quote:

Russian airborne units have been decimated in this war.


That means one in ten. Do you really mean more?
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
21024 posts
Posted on 3/10/23 at 8:43 am to
quote:

That means one in ten. Do you really mean more?



From Merriam-Webster: LINK

quote:

There are, it must be said, some problems with the argument that this is the only correct meaning today.

The first problem is that even if decimate did refer to the practice of killing one of every ten soldiers in Roman times, it did so in the service of Latin, not English. We have many words in English that are descended from Latin but which have changed their meaning in their travels. We no longer think of sinister as meaning “on the left side,” even though that was one of the word’s meanings when it existed in Latin.

Another problem with insisting that decimate should have but a single meaning is that very few words in English retain but a single meaning. An enormous percentage of the items in our vocabulary are capable of semantic multitasking.
quote:

Was the sense meaning “to select by lot and kill every tenth man of” the original use of decimate in English? Yes, it was, but not by much. Our earliest record of this meaning is from the end of the 16th century; by the beginning of the 17th century the word had already taken on an additional meaning (“to tithe”). Furthermore, the word decimation, meaning “a tithing,” had been in use for about 60 years before decimate began to be used in any fashion.

Perhaps you are one of those true stalwarts who will refuse to be swayed by any argument in this regard, and have resolved not only to continue to use decimate in this way but also to tell those who do not that they are wrong. In that case you deserve applause and support.

Come to think of it, you deserve more than that—you deserve an ovation. Except that the original meaning of ovation in English was “a ceremony attending the entering of Rome by a general who had won a victory of less importance than that for which a triumph was granted,” so I guess we can’t use that word.

No matter, we can say that if you stick to your guns you will surely have a triumph. Wait—the first meaning of triumph was “a ceremony attending the entering of Rome by a general who had won a decisive victory over a foreign enemy,” so let’s not use that.

As it turns out, decimate is hardly the only word in English that once had a precise single meaning dealing with Roman history; it just is the only one that people like to complain about. For those who truly believe that words which started out in English having a single meaning that pertains to ancient Rome should remain that way forever, the following list of such will come in handy:

Century: “a subdivision of the Roman legion.”
Forum: “the marketplace or public place of an ancient Roman city forming the center of judicial and public business.”
Tribune: “a Roman official under the monarchy and the republic with the function of protecting the plebeian citizen from arbitrary action by the patrician magistrates.”
Missiles: “Gifts thrown to the crowds by Roman emperors.”
Actor: “In Roman law, one that conducts a legal action.”
Legion: “the principal unit of the Roman army comprising 3000 to 6000 foot soldiers with cavalry.”
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8182 posts
Posted on 3/10/23 at 8:55 am to
I saw some reporting in the last couple of days where the US was now testing inexpensive UAVs dropping munitions. We are learning from what is happening in this war.

I'm sure China is doing the same.
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
21024 posts
Posted on 3/10/23 at 8:59 am to
WSJ:

Fight for Bakhmut Becomes Moment of Truth for Wagner Founder

quote:

As forces from Russian paramilitary group Wagner fight to expel Ukrainian troops from the eastern city of Bakhmut, the group’s founder, Yevgeny Prigozhin, faces a defining moment.
quote:

If Wagner succeeds in taking Bakhmut, it would be the first significant Russian victory since last summer. Mr. Prigozhin would show up the regular Russian military, whose efforts to take other towns in eastern Ukraine have failed.

quote:

But if Mr. Prigozhin fails after seven months of fighting that, according to Western estimates, has cost Wagner tens of thousands of fighters, it could call into question the efficacy of the group’s soldiers and give fuel to his enemies in Russia’s political and military elite to further undermine Mr. Prigozhin.
quote:

Tensions between Mr. Prigozhin and the Kremlin elite have risen over the years, as Wagner’s profile has grown.
quote:

“People mostly ignored him when it was Syria and Africa, but in Ukraine it started angering everyone—and especially after the sledgehammer execution,” said a person close to the Kremlin. “People in the system feel that the state should have the monopoly on punishment.”

Mr. Prigozhin also lost allies in the Defense Ministry such as Col. Gen. Alexei Kim, the Russian army’s deputy chief of staff, who often flew with Wagner to places like Libya, said Gleb Irisov, a former Russian air-force officer who remains in touch with his former colleagues in the military.
quote:

In February, he published a photograph of dozens of his soldiers that he said were killed on the battlefield in eastern Ukraine—bloodied, maimed and laid out for collection. In a video, he said the men died because of the Defense Ministry’s decision.

“Mothers, wives and children will receive their bodies, and who is guilty for the fact they died?” he asked.
“Those who should have solved the problem of supplying us with sufficient amounts of artillery,” he said, naming Mr. Shoigu and Gen. Gerasimov.

Analysts said regular Russian forces have been running short of artillery shells across the front line. But Mr. Prigozhin blamed the military leadership.

In early February, he said in a social-media post that one of his deputies, Andrey Troshev, had sent a spreadsheet to Mr. Gerasimov, highlighting 14 out of 21 different types of ammunition of which Wagner troops were in severely short supply.
quote:

On Thursday, Mr. Prigozhin said on his Telegram channel that the shortage of artillery shells hadn’t improved and that the phone lines he uses to communicate with government agencies had been cut off. His access to government buildings has also been halted, he said, adding that the moves were aimed at stopping his complaints. His only outlet now, he said, was the media.

People familiar with the Kremlin’s thinking said Mr. Putin decided to restrain Mr. Prigozhin after complaints from top Kremlin officials. “They’ve decided that Prigozhin poses too great a threat, and it’s been decided it’s time to clamp down on Wagner,” said a former Russian intelligence agent with ties to the Kremlin.

Since January, references to Mr. Prigozhin and Wagner have become less frequent in Russian state media, after an order issued by the Kremlin, according to people close to Mr. Putin’s administration.

Sergei Markov, a pro-Kremlin analyst, said he has been told by heads of state television and radio stations ahead of appearances in recent weeks to tone down references to Mr. Prigozhin and Wagner.
quote:

Yet despite opposition from much of the Kremlin establishment, Mr. Prigozhin maintains the backing of Yuri Kovalchuk, a close friend and adviser to Mr. Putin, according to people close to the Kremlin. Mr. Kovalchuk didn’t respond to a request for comment.

A European intelligence official said of Mr. Prigozhin, “Russia is losing the war, so they still need him.”
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
21024 posts
Posted on 3/10/23 at 9:08 am to



This kind of threat is not likely to make the protesters go back to their homes.
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
21024 posts
Posted on 3/10/23 at 9:13 am to
Editor-in-Chief of Russia Today, Margarita Simonyan threatens to destroy Tbilisi:



LINK

In case you don't understand "B," she's saying that the city could be nuked. Kyiv could not be nuked because there is a sacred Orthodox site there, but Tbilisi has no such sacred site protecting it.
This post was edited on 3/10/23 at 9:15 am
Posted by tigeraddict
Baton Rouge
Member since Mar 2007
14894 posts
Posted on 3/10/23 at 9:16 am to
quote:

his kind of threat is not likely to make the protesters go back to their homes.



and unlike 2014 comparison, russia is tied up elsewhere......

And russia making another "move" on a neighbor will only push the west to be more resolved, and it will push some sitting on the fence away from Russia.....
Posted by ghost2most
Member since Mar 2012
7954 posts
Posted on 3/10/23 at 9:37 am to
Am I the only one who never understands what these Russian fricks are trying to say? Translations are really hard to follow.

There word and sentence structure is extremely different or at least how it translates.
Posted by lowspark12
nashville, tn
Member since Aug 2009
22596 posts
Posted on 3/10/23 at 9:41 am to
quote:

This kind of threat is not likely to make the protesters go back to their homes.


It is a tale as old as time.

Threatening a people bc they’re doing something they feel is in their best interest almost never works… it reinforces their already established fears and only makes it worse.
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