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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Posted on 3/9/23 at 7:20 pm to
Posted by SteelerBravesDawg
Member since Sep 2020
43337 posts
Posted on 3/9/23 at 7:20 pm to
quote:

We’ve got Lenin and we’ve got God on our side and cannot be defeated

Posted by REG861
Ocelot, Iowa
Member since Oct 2011
38224 posts
Posted on 3/9/23 at 7:21 pm to
Yea.. can’t make that up. He’s actually had a really fascinating life and is definitely not cut from the cloth of most the type that actually are pro Russia (as opposed to isolationist), but still, just shows what a hodgepodge of miscreants are attracted to Russia.
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
16110 posts
Posted on 3/9/23 at 7:27 pm to
quote:

What happened to that doctor that posted in here a lot?


WeeWee hinted at going back to Ukraine for a bit.
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
21024 posts
Posted on 3/9/23 at 7:49 pm to
quote:


If the Ukrainians are truly set on defending Bakhmut then I don’t know why they don’t try to put together a force to attack one of their flanks. Again, I have no idea of their forces in and around the area to pull off a flanking maneuver but it would be a good way to take some pressure off the guys in the center of the city.


Well, it would appear that Ukraine is indeed attacking south of Bakhmut, going back into Mayorsk: LINK


quote:

Updates:

RU forces have captured Dubovo-Vasylivka.

UA have advanced back into Mayorsk, the settlement is now contested.





One of the things that I don't think that many people realized is that Russia advanced in February, when the ground was frozen, into areas that have since turned into muddy messes.

Meanwhile, Ukraine continued to hold the urban area of Bakhmut, where mud was not an issue, and the high ground west of Bakhmut, where mud was also not an issue.

I haven't mentioned this before, but I think this was yet one more reason that Ukraine decided to continue to defend Bakhmut: Ukraine knew that they would be attacking from the high ground, while Russia would be trying to supply troops stuck in the mud -- it's about Ukraine being strategic about the weather forecast, and Russia ignoring it.
This post was edited on 3/9/23 at 7:53 pm
Posted by LSUPilot07
Member since Feb 2022
8657 posts
Posted on 3/9/23 at 8:00 pm to
Looks like Abrams will be rolling in Ukraine a lot sooner than first thought. That’s a huge win for Ukraine.

LINK
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
21024 posts
Posted on 3/9/23 at 8:04 pm to
It sounds like the Pentagon has changed its mind about giving new tanks to Ukraine off the assembly line, and they are instead taking from existing stock.

Anyway, there were stories from a couple of weeks ago that they hadn't decided exactly what to do, so it's great that they have a plan.

I wonder if they are actually going to try to get them to Ukraine in time for their spring offensive.
Posted by NPComb
Member since Jan 2019
28604 posts
Posted on 3/9/23 at 8:29 pm to
quote:

So which poster is this?


Apparently he's a commie sympathizer and someone who wants to fight real Nazis. Why don't you guys support him?
Posted by Darth_Vader
A galaxy far, far away
Member since Dec 2011
73977 posts
Posted on 3/9/23 at 8:36 pm to
quote:

If the Ukrainians are truly set on defending Bakhmut then I don’t know why they don’t try to put together a force to attack one of their flanks. Again, I have no idea of their forces in and around the area to pull off a flanking maneuver but it would be a good way to take some pressure off the guys in the center of the city.


So kind of a re-do of Stalingrad? Draw the enemy into an urban environment then when you’ve drawn in as many as possible, hit their flanks and envelop the whole lot of them.

Could this whole battle perhaps be setting the stage for the anticipated Ukrainian Spring Offensive we’ve been hearing about for a while now?
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
16110 posts
Posted on 3/9/23 at 8:45 pm to
quote:

If the Ukrainians are truly set on defending Bakhmut then I don’t know why they don’t try to put together a force to attack one of their flanks. Again, I have no idea of their forces in and around the area to pull off a flanking maneuver but it would be a good way to take some pressure off the guys in the center of the city.



If I am not mistaken, Ukraine has footholds on the ridge north and south of the Russian bulge. Theoretically they could perform a pincer from each direction to trap all of Wagner in the valley below the eastern ridge
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8182 posts
Posted on 3/9/23 at 9:03 pm to
quote:

Draw the enemy into an urban environment then when you’ve drawn in as many as possible, hit their flanks and envelop the whole lot of them.


I said yesterday that I thought Ukraine was drawing Russia into a trap. My mind hasn't changed.
Posted by OutsideObserver
Oceania.
Member since Dec 2022
784 posts
Posted on 3/9/23 at 9:29 pm to
quote:

WeeWee hinted at going back to Ukraine for a bit.


Thank you I asked a while ago but didn't see/missed a response.
Posted by LSUPilot07
Member since Feb 2022
8657 posts
Posted on 3/9/23 at 9:52 pm to
If Ukraine could pull off a flanking maneuver and push back or capture/kill a large number of the Wagner troops the publicity it would create would absolutely destroy everything the Russians have been spouting out of their mouths for months about the imminent capture of Bakhmut. Just think about what Solovyov and the rest of the talking heads would say. If they have the forces it’s possible to do. They have the high ground while Wagner is slogging through the mud. It would be like the surprise thunder run offensive last year in the north while taking Kherson in the south x10. Destroying Wagner might very well break the average Russian conscript’s will to fight.
Posted by OutsideObserver
Oceania.
Member since Dec 2022
784 posts
Posted on 3/9/23 at 9:59 pm to
quote:

I said yesterday that I thought Ukraine was drawing Russia into a trap. My mind hasn't changed.


After going back over the ISW progression map for my earlier post I am leaning that way myself, if Ukraine has read Russia that well it will be a very good display of strategy under pressure, though with a healthy dose of luck in the earlier stages, particularly around Kyiv.

I have concerns that they may have paid too much in Bahkmut and elsewhere to effectively counter attack holding Russia down the last 3 months. However the lack of further open mobilisation from Russia may bite very hard if the casualty ratios are even on the moderate spectrum of those discussed as Russia only had comparable manpower in theatre with the prior ones.

The continued lack of mobilisation is a further indicator that things are not all ship shape back in the Motherland in my view as I don't think relying on the regular conscription cycle will get in troops in place quickly enough if Ukraine successfully breaks through the lines.

Edit: Clarity


This post was edited on 3/9/23 at 10:02 pm
Posted by OutsideObserver
Oceania.
Member since Dec 2022
784 posts
Posted on 3/9/23 at 10:07 pm to
quote:

If Ukraine could pull off a flanking maneuver and push back or capture/kill a large number of the Wagner troops the publicity it would create would absolutely destroy everything the Russians have been spouting out of their mouths for months about the imminent capture of Bakhmut. Just think about what Solovyov and the rest of the talking heads would say. If they have the forces it’s possible to do. They have the high ground while Wagner is slogging through the mud. It would be like the surprise thunder run offensive last year in the north while taking Kherson in the south x10. Destroying Wagner might very well break the average Russian conscript’s will to fight.


If Ukraine is banking on winning by destroying Russia's will to fight to counter the war of attrition currently in place it would be a significant step towards achieving that.

There would be no way to dress up months of grinding towards Bahkmut only to have it reversed as anything other than a complete failure, though I am sure the talking heads and co will try.
Posted by Obtuse1
Westside Bodymore Yo
Member since Sep 2016
30652 posts
Posted on 3/9/23 at 10:10 pm to
More talking-head rhetoric about getting the Union back together. This time focused on Georgia with a little Nazi flavor sprinkled in.

Twitter
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8182 posts
Posted on 3/9/23 at 10:11 pm to
This was just a feint by Russia
Posted by Obtuse1
Westside Bodymore Yo
Member since Sep 2016
30652 posts
Posted on 3/9/23 at 10:27 pm to
Russian military "guy" on Skabeyeva's show talking about Ukraine's significant advantage in drones.

Twitter
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8182 posts
Posted on 3/9/23 at 10:55 pm to
I've mentioned it before in this thread, but where are the Russian Special Forces? Do they just not have special ops forces as we do with the Seals, Green Berets, etc...?

And where is the airmobile infantry? What they lost at Homstel, couldn't have been all they have, could it?

Where are their anti-radar weapons? Do they have no capacity to suppress enemy air defenses?

And because they haven't shown any ability to suppress Ukrainian air defenses, Russia does not have a presence in the sky over Ukrainian-held territory, much less air superiority.

It makes me wonder if China has these capabilities or if are we that far ahead of the rest of the world?

Posted by Jim Rockford
Member since May 2011
105473 posts
Posted on 3/9/23 at 11:38 pm to
The Holstomel debacle seems to have scared them away from airborne/airmobile operations, if indeed they're even capable of it any more. Operations like that take training, and nobody's done any training in Russia for over a year. Whatever capability Russia once had is badly atrophied.

They ground up their spetsnaz units using them as conventional infantry because of the shortage of reliable troops.

There is an undated video of Russian frogmen blowing up a Ukrainian ship. It may have been staged.
Posted by Breauxsif
Member since May 2012
22806 posts
Posted on 3/9/23 at 11:49 pm to
The Russians were using Chechen Special Forces units earlier in the war. I’ve viewed some footage of these units on Twitter wildly firing heavy machine guns, similar to a 240B into civilian buildings in Kharkiv without much control or technique.

Russian airborne units have been decimated in this war.
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