re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

If anyone knows the likes of Macron and the compromised Germans why would anyone be surprised? All they want is to get this over and go back to the status quo. I wonder if they would feel differently if they had to live right next to Putin?

They pulled out of that city because we told them to, in preparation for the Spring offensive

Twitter drone footage of what’s left of Bakhmut

Wow there’s really nothing left. Crazy to see a sight like that in 2023.

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UK, French, and German officials are reportedly preparing a NATO-Ukraine pact that falls far short of the protections Ukraine would receive from NATO membership and appears to reflect a desire to press Ukraine to accept a negotiated settlement on unfavorable terms.[1] The Wall Street Journal reported that the exact provisions of the pact are undecided, but the officials indicated that the pact will provide advanced military equipment, arms, and ammunition to Ukraine, but not Article V protection or a commitment to station NATO forces in Ukraine—falling short of Ukraine’s aspirations for full NATO membership. The officials stated that the pact aims to provision Ukraine so that Ukrainian forces can conduct a counteroffensive that brings Russia to the negotiating table and deter any future Russian aggression.

Interesting. So they’re willing to give Ukraine the advanced weapons to expel Russia, but only if they agree to negotiate peace after and no NATO entry. Wonder what their idea of the peace agreement looks like.

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As noted before, it's just a trial balloon at this point but it may not be as bad as it looks at first glance. The problem we have are the names of Macron and Scholz on the proposal. Take those two names off the heading and it looks much better.

As has been said, because the sanctions are not working fast enough the only solution is a full military victory for the Ukrainians. This is going to require an accelerated committment to supply them with everything they need. In return, Ukraine accepts a NATO-light membership, the details of which are anyone's guess. But could easily lead to full membership later or at least a solid support committment to keep the Russians in their holes in the future.

The 'not-NATO' association would play with the EU left, thus the support from Macron and Scholz. It would (ideally) increase the amount and speed of delivery of the needed weapons as it would greatly reduce the European fear of a future committment to total war with the Kremlin. Which is the biggest issue the Europeans have with Ukraine now.

Tanks and long range missiles (including long range anti-ship missiles), along with ammunition and full continuing support at current levels could do it. We would love to add aircraft, and maybe the Chinese are stupid enough to solve this problem for us, but everything else the Ukrinians need for full victory this year would be a good deal.

I promise you Russian wants no part of Poland. They would frick Putin up the arse.

Yeah. Look at what Ukraine did to the Russian military. The Poles have a better military than Ukraine did at the start of the war last year.

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If the Russians win in Ukraine, then Poland is next and we (the U.S.) are officially in the fight.

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I just find it hard to believe that Russia is going to try and frick with Poland. I think Russian aggression is a serious issue, but Russia knows what would happen if they messed with Poland. They just can’t mess with the NATO members. The only NATO members I’d be worried about Russia messing with is the Baltic Nations, but I still have a hard time believing Russia would mess with them because they’re a part of NATO. They may do the same kinds of things China does with Taiwan, just adding a ton of stress and pressure to the Baltics, to try and scare them, but I seriously doubt Russia would try and militarily invade the Baltics.

Twitter thread - Ukrainian Reserve Officer goes through the change in Russia tactics around Bakhmut

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As has been said on here earlier, the Poles have the best trained military on mainland Europe.

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I think we let our imagination run wild a little too much with Polish military might.

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The 'not-NATO' association would play with the EU left, thus the support from Macron and Scholz.



But why? At this point why would you not want Ukraine in NATO if NATO has thus far prevented direct attack from Russia in areas they historically want and aside from troops you’ve decently treated as NATO member to begin with, on the whole not France and Germany’s feet dragging.

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We most assuredly do want Ukraine in NATO as a full member. However (as Pilot07) pointed out), NATO can't accept membership from a country currently at war. So this has to wait anyway.

The problem is the non-Tallinn Group countries, especially France and Germany, have been hesitant with supporting Ukraine from the start. These countries have significant voting blocks on the anti-war left and more importantly, want to position themselves to receive gas from Russia when this is all over. That's their way of thinking anyway.

Therefore the leaders of these countries are getting significant push-back on the fast supply of weapons to the Ukrainians. Lots of talk about lethal support, very little delivery.

So if the extenstion of NATO membership to Ukraine is taken off the table (for the time being), this push-back could be resolved. The Ukrainians would then get all the weapons they need now and hopefully win the war. Then, after it is over, the talks over Ukrainian support and future protection begin. With all the Russians back in Russia.

TLDR? First, the French and Germans do what it takes to help win the war; secondly, it doesn't matter. We can talk about Ukrainian NATO membership later.