re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The Sevastopol naval base is a big deal, Russia could always relocate the Black Sea fleet to the base at Novorossiysk.

Prior to the Russian takeover of Crimea, Ukraine leased the Sevastopol Naval base to Russia.

Ukraine has received 4 Leopard 2s from Poland.

Wants to give 60 PT91s and train pilots on the F-16.

Polish PM tweet

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Prior to the Russian takeover of Crimea, Ukraine leased the Sevastopol Naval base to Russia.

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Correct. But if Russia loses it, it would be a disaster for them. IMO, it is the biggest reason Putin went into Crimea. That base is located there for a reason. It is the basis for them dominating the Black Sea. If Putin loses Crimea and that base, he is finished and he knows it.

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Assuming Russia negotiates I'm good faith (huge if),

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Medvedev says they will push back Poland's borders -
"Victory will be achieved. We all want it to happen as soon as possible. And that day will come," said Medvedev. He predicted that tough negotiations with Ukraine and the West would follow that would culminate in "some kind of agreement."
But he said that deal would lack what he called "fundamental agreements on real borders" and not amount to an over-arching European security pact, making it vital for Russia to extend its own borders now.
"That is why it is so important to achieve all the goals of the special military operation. To push back the borders that threaten our country as far as possible, even if they are the borders of Poland," said Medvedev.
LINK

Any agreement with Russia would only be a delaying action until they are ready to strike again to expand their domain. Russia today is like Rome in the days of their expansion as they feel that they should have eminent domain over all that they desire.

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What about the Russian naval base in Sevastapol? Putin will never give that up.

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They have moved out after being subject to attack from land drones/missiles from Ukraine.

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If so, why haven't they delivered the type weapons that can achieve this? The only western leaders that fully support this right now are Poland and the Baltic states. What do you think that Macron is talking about when he says France will never agree to humiliate Russia. He means Russia being kicked out of Crimea.

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They are! That's what it means that the UK is sending Storm Shadow. British PM Sunak is also urging other countries to send longer-range weapons to Ukraine, and there is increasing movement and political pressure in DC for the US to send ATACMS. McConnell, for example, is pushing hard. He's in Finland today, touring Europe and pushing our allies to do more ... and continually criticizing Biden for not doing enough.

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“It is not enough to do the right things; we need to do the right things at the right speed. The Biden administration and our allies must act more decisively to ensure that both our collective assistance to Ukraine and the investments we each make in our own militaries take place at the speed of relevance," he concluded, adding, "The road to peace lies in speedily surging Ukraine the tools they need to achieve victory as they define it."

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Even GLSDB and JDAM-ER help, because they can degrade places such as Dzhankoi (the major railroad junction in Crimea). If Ukraine can reach the Azov Sea, then they can reach Kerch.

But Storm Shadow, if the UK provides sufficient quantity, provides all of that and then some. Perhaps you didn't see my prior posts on this weapon, but it has a massive warhead that will take out a span of the Kerch Bridge with one blow. It will take out every airfield in Crimea and any ship that docks in Sevastopol.

These weapons mean that Russia will be completely unable to supply Crimea. Any ship that tries to cross the Kerch Strait or dock at Sevastopol gets sunk. Russia could only get helicopters or small boats to Crimea.

And that means that Russian forces there run out of fuel almost immediately. Most of the traffic across the Kerch rail bridge was fuel tanks, and Russia is presumably making that up now through the rail ferries it's running.

So Russian forces in Crimea and southern Kherson run out of fuel before they run out of ammo and food. Fuel wasn't the issue in Russia's defense of the city of Kherson last September, because it was easy for Russia to run a big flexible pipe under the Dnipro River to get fuel across. Russia was eventually unable to hold Kherson City because of logistical constraints on ammo, but fuel wasn't a big problem, but it will be the instant and massive logistical problem in Crimea.

And this is what I think that so many of you are missing out on: before the supply of these long-range weapons, Ukraine might not have attempted a big offensive in the South this summer. They might have instead focused a big offensive in the northeast, trying to take Kreminna, Svatove, Staroblisk, and then putting pressure on Severodonetsk and Lysychansk.

The supply of long-range weapons guarantees that Ukraine's big spring offensive will happen in in southern Ukraine. That's because these long-range weapons will degrade Russian logistics to its forces in the south, but more than that, it's because, if they are successful in driving south to the Azov Sea, Ukraine will cut off and ultimately take Crimea.

After takes out the Kerch Bridge, and rail ferries that are trying to dock at Kerch, all Russian airfields in Crimea, and any supply ship that tries to dock in Sevastopol, Russia will not be able to hold Crimea. Ukraine will take Crimea without some massive amphibious assault or crossing the Crimean mountains. They will take Crimea because Russian armored vehicles will have no fuel.

And this is why I just read several pages of speculation about what the end of the conflict looks like, and I don't think that y'all understand that the Ukrainian path to victory goes through Crimea.

So, there's no longer much likelihood of Ukraine recapturing most of its territory while Russia keeps Crimea. That's not the way that things are going to go. Either Russia is essentially going to win this war and keep most of what it's occupying now, or Ukraine is going to win by taking Crimea.

And once Ukraine takes Crimea, you have to be insane to think that Ukraine is simply going to give it back to Russia in some kind of settlement. That's why I say that the possible outcomes of the war, if Ukraine has any success at all are: Crimean independence, Crimean autonomy as part of Ukraine, or Crimean fully re-integrated with Ukraine.

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@WarMonitors · 23m ??Pushilin: Ending the SMO without achieving its goals simply means postponing a new war to a later date

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About the only truthful statement the Russians have ever said. How can you go the negotiating table with that mindset?

Activists placed a destroyed T-72 outside the Russian Embassy in Berlin with the barrel aimed at the embassy.....

Reuters

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They have moved out after being subject to attack from land drones/missiles from Ukraine.

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True but that is not losing it permanently. Can you imagine Russians accepting a NATO base there? Losing that naval base for Russia would be the equivalent to us losing a major strategic base to China. It would be the greatest strategic disaster in 100 years for them. Russians were overjoyed when Putin took Crimea. They consider it to be a gem for them. Putin will not relinquish Crimea without taking some drastic measures. That is what Macron is referring to when he says Russia should not be humiliated. Again if Putin loses Crimea he is a dead man walking. Macron and others like him are scared to death of a disabled Russia. Whether you agree or not, the thought of what might happen with that instability causes hesitation in providing Ukraine with the ability to take it among those types.

Vladimir Putin will 'die in prison' if he orders Russian troops out of Ukraine | Bill Browder/Times Radio/youtube