re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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Hopefully it is sincere.

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who are the two nit wits

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Germany, France and Britain see stronger ties between NATO and Ukraine as a way to encourage Kyiv to start peace talks with Russia later this year, officials from the three governments said, as some of Kyiv’s Western partners have growing doubts over its ability to reconquer all its territory.

U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak last week laid out a blueprint for an agreement to give Ukraine much broader access to advanced military equipment, weapons and ammunition to defend itself once the war ends. He said the plan should be on the agenda for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s annual meeting in July.

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Yesterday and today, the European Union, the UK, Australia, the US, and Canada all announced new rounds of sanctions on Russia.

The economic noose continues to tighten.

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If China pulls this shite we should immediately establish full diplomatic relations with Taiwan and recognize its sovereignty.

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I would think what is more probable is 2023 ends with increasing attrition/stalemate setting in and more push for a negotiated settlement behind the scenes where both sides get to walk away with their "win". A Ukraine that keeps 90% of its territory, EU membership/funding for recovery, and security guarantees (or even a DMZ like the Koreas) and a Russia that keeps its break aways probably fits that at a high level.

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For Ukraine, the road to victory runs through Crimea. It is the key. It is the decisive terrain. Liberating Crimea, this year, will change everything in this war.

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Meanwhile, Ukraine’s logistics are steadily improving thanks to support from the coalition, although ammunition stocks are low. Russia’s logistics are steadily worsening thanks to sanctions, poor/corrupt management, excessive consumption, and accurate targeting by Ukrainian precision weapons.

Russia currently has 97% of its army in Ukraine, according to British Defence Secretary Ben Wallace, and yet it is still unable to capture even the small town on Bahkmut in the country’s east, which is defended predominantly by territorial defense forces and national guard troops. That tells me that Russian forces are likely to culminate before the end of May; they simply can’t sustain the losses and ammunition expenditures at the current rate for much longer and they remain unable to conduct joint, combined operations.

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Our focus should be on helping Ukraine liberate Crimea; it should be the main effort, while using “economy of force” in the east to slow/stop Russian ground attacks. Ukraine knows it will never be safe or secure so long as Russia occupies the peninsula. Any peace settlement which results in Russia holding onto this land would simply allow the Kremlin to wait two or three years until we, the West, lose interest, while in the meanwhile they rebuild the military, address their mistakes, and restart their war against Ukraine — that, after all, has been the pattern since 2008.

OK, so how can Ukraine go about this?

Liberating Crimea means first making it untenable for the Russian army, navy, and air forces on the peninsula and then occupying it.

Start with isolating it using long-range precision strikes against the only two land lines of communication that connect it to Russia; the Kerch Bridge, already severely damaged by Ukrainian forces, and the so-called “land bridge” which connects Crimea to Russia via Mariupol and Melitopol along the coastline of Azov Sea. Targeting that transportation infrastructure will begin the isolation of Crimea from resupply or movement.

A large Ukrainian armored force attacking southeastwards in the direction of the Azov Sea and penetrating Russian linear defenses would complete the isolation of Crimea and enable the closer deployment of HIMARS rocket launchers which would then be in range of key Russian facilities in Crimea. Crimea is about the size of Massachusetts. There’s no place to hide. The locations of all Russian facilities are well known and obvious — and vulnerable.

Precision strikes on Sevastopol will force the Black Sea fleet to reposition to Novorossiysk which is far less capable as a base, and further away from Ukrainian cities. The airbase at Saky, on the west coast of Crimea, should be made completely unusable. And the logistics hub at Dzhankoy in the north of Crimea should become a huge bonfire. Once Crimea is untenable, then Ukrainian ground forces can begin to attack south, towards the Perekop Isthmus, and then into broader Crimea. Other Ukrainian assets (special forces, marines, unmanned systems, etc) will also play a role.

Is there any better military objective? Why not the Donbas?

It’s important but not decisive. The liberation of Donbas won’t significantly change the strategic situation. The liberation of Crimea would be such a monumental defeat for Russia that I think the will to fight among Russian troops and “separatists” in the region would likely evaporate.

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