re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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Losing that naval base for Russia would be the equivalent to us losing a major strategic base to China. It would be the greatest strategic disaster in 100 years for them. Russians were overjoyed when Putin took Crimea. They consider it to be a gem for them. Putin will not relinquish Crimea without taking some drastic measures.

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There are only two ways that this war can end. Either Russia will "win" and the peace terms will largely be dictated by Russia, or Ukraine will be successful in retaking a lot of territory, and Russia will sue for peace.

In the 2nd case, there is absolutely no way that Ukraine will accept a Russian base at Sevastopol. Ukraine's entire economy depends on the Port of Odesa, and the exports from that port, as has been blatantly obvious from this conflict, will never be secure in any way as long as Russia has a base right next to the shipping lane for the Port of Odesa.

There is now no possibility of settlement to this conflict that does not result in humiliation to one side or another.

Why are some of y'all presenting these proposed settlements which have no chance of happening? Either Russia will be successful in freezing the conflict with the "borders" where they are now, or Ukraine will be successful in securing victories that force Russia to accept a humiliating loss. There's no 3rd way.

Has anyone seen Wee Wee lately?

I wonder how his officer friend in the Ukrainian army is doing.

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Have you ever thought that Ukraine might not get the final say?

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Yep. That's the outcome where Russia wins. Which, as I said, is still a possibility, though I would argue that it's increasingly unlikely.

But there's no outcome to this war where Ukraine regains full control of the Donbas and Russia keeps Crimea.

Even Macron and Scholz know that any outcome of this war that isn't simply "Russian victory" needs to leave Ukraine in some position to guarantee its future security. The Donbas is not essential for Ukraine's long-term security, but Crimea is.

So, I get really frustrated when I see multiple posts in here that propose that Ukraine gets the Donbas and Russia keeps Crimea. That's just not going to happen.

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F'off Putin cocksucker

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This is not accurate regarding Burhead.

This does illustrate the difficulty of any acceptable peace treaty. Both sides and the people that support them have to understand short of total military defeat any workable peace plan will have provisions that one side hates. Peace plans are at the root compromises. Without total military defeat, BOTH sides will have to compromise for a peace deal no matter how much they dislike the idea. The issue to this point is neither side has gained the leverage from the battlefield that they feel is possible/probable. As long as both sides think they can gain more leverage on the battlefield we will not see a peace deal. The exception to this is if one side determines any further leverage they can wring out via combat is not worth the loss of life and treasure.

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Without total military defeat, BOTH sides will have to compromise for a peace deal no matter how much they dislike the idea.

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And without total military defeat, you will need some third party strong, determined and respected enough to enforce the peace deal. I don't know who would fit that bill. I'm afraid without the total implosion of Russia, any settlement will just freeze things in place until Russia is ready for another bite at the apple.

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As long as both sides think they can gain more leverage on the battlefield we will not see a peace deal. The exception to this is if one side determines any further leverage they can wring out via combat is not worth the loss of life and treasure.

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I would agree with this. Both sides, from their point of view, have reasons to think they can increase their leverage.

For Ukraine, they're getting a ton of western aid/equipment and have a lot of willpower. Even more important is they've got some momentum from the fact they held up from the initial assault, and pushed back. The 2023 offensive from their end is their hope to break out and reclaim a lot of ground.

For Russia, they look at the situation and say "OK, year 1 sucked, but at the end of day I have more people than you, and I don't care how many die, if I can make this a full attrition style conflict I think I can slowly choke you out, or bare minimum hold on to what I've got. The West won't fund you forever." Most here, and I would agree, that the odds they're going to break Ukraine fully are slim to none at this point, but they obviously don't think that and continue to think western support is not infinite.

The questions I have in my mind are:

1. How much ground is exchanged in 2023 and at what cost?
2. How long can aid come to Ukraine? We're already seeing discussions in the UK and US about defense stockpiles, and without significant ramp up you will hit a point where you can't replenish what is being used and your resources lock up.
3. Can Russia continue to source its own aid from China/Iran? Similar issue as #2.

Personally, while I think Ukraine will see gains, I don't see them expelling Russia and taking back Crimea/break away regions. I just don't see Putin/Russia leadership being able to take it. They've claimed these are part of Russia, to lose them now would be the end of their regime. The military would have to absolutely collapse at that point in my opinion for this to happen.

I would think what is more probable is 2023 ends with increasing attrition/stalemate setting in and more push for a negotiated settlement behind the scenes where both sides get to walk away with their "win". A Ukraine that keeps 90% of its territory, EU membership/funding for recovery, and security guarantees (or even a DMZ like the Koreas) and a Russia that keeps its break aways probably fits that at a high level.

On cue:

Putin has had agents inside German intelligence for years.

Claiming land and then suing for peace was all part of the end game.

He was banking on Germany supporting this plan all along.

Even with a deal the big problem is insuring the peace.

Russia has repeatedly violated agreements regarding Ukraine and elsewhere. They likely would do the same if there is a deal cut.

I can see this thing going on for decades. Not all out was, but a situation similar to Korea or Israel with armed camps on both sides of the “peace line”.

Thank God someone is finally calling for peace talks.

Hopefully it is sincere.