re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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Saw a video on Twitter of Putin meeting with Lukashenko. He was sitting in a chair and his feet/legs were moving spasmodically.

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Cat on a hot tin roof. Not sure if he has physical or mental issues.

ISW Update

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The Kremlin will likely subsume elements of Belarus’ defense industrial base (DIB) as part of Moscow’s larger effort to reequip the Russian military to support a protracted war against Ukraine. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko stated during a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on February 17 that Belarus’ aerospace industry is ready to produce Su-25 ground attack aircraft for the Russian military with the support of Russian technology transfers.[1] Lukashenko also stated that the Belarusian state-run Minsk Automobile Plant began producing components to support Russian KAMAZ (a Russian heavy-duty truck producer) products and expressed willingness to help Russia produce electronic components to substitute for lost Western imports.[2] Lukashenko additionally stated that Belarus is implementing 100 percent of unspecified defense and security cooperation agreements that Belarus and Russia agreed to “three months ago.”[3]

Additional Su-25s and truck parts are likely not critical material for the success of Russia’s long-term war effort. The Kremlin may commandeer Belarusian factories and retool them to produce critical materiel that the Russian military needs, Lukashenko’s statements notwithstanding

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Lukashenko confirmed that Belarus has implemented more Union State integration programs - marking progress in the Kremlin’s steady pressure campaign to formalize the Russian-Belarusian Union State across decades. Lukashenko stated on February 17 that Russia and Belarus implemented 80 percent of the 28 Union State programs including programs on customs and tax – a significant achievement in the Kremlin’s campaign to formalize the Union State.[6] Lukashenko has historically resisted implementing the Union State integration programs by stalling specifically on complex customs and tax harmonization issues since at least 2019.[7] Lukashenko’s statement that Belarus has finally ratified Union State programs on customs and tax issues therefore marks a significant Russian gain. Lukashenko stated that the remaining unimplemented Union State programs concern humanitarian issues.[8]

Lukashenko is likely paying for his rejection of Putin’s larger demand for Belarusian forces to join the invasion against Ukraine by making smaller concessions that he has stonewalled for years, as ISW assessed

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The Kremlin’s gains in Belarus underscore that Putin’s imperialistic ambitions transcend Ukraine and that containing the Russian threat requires the West’s sustained attention. Putin will very likely make significant gains in restoring Russian suzerainty over Belarus regardless of the outcome of his invasion of Ukraine.

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The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) confirmed the names of the commanders of Russia’s four military districts, finalizing a complete turnover of the Russian military’s initial command since the start of the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The Russian MoD confirmed on February 17 that it appointed Lieutenant General Andrey Mordvichev as Central Military District (CMD) commander and that it had previously appointed Colonel General Sergey Kuzovlev as Southern Military District (SMD) commander, Lieutenant General Yevgeny Nikiforov as Western Military District (WMD) commander, and Lieutenant General Rustam Muradov as Eastern Military District (EMD) commander.

The formalization of military district commanders is likely part of an effort to distance the Russian military from past failures and to prepare the Russian military for a renewed large-scale offensive in Ukraine. The formalization of military district commanders also accompanies the MoD’s likely attempt to delineate clearer areas of responsibility for each military district in Ukraine. The appointment of these commanders does not represent the restoration of the pre-war MoD leadership bloc or an expansion of the ultranationalist siloviki faction’s power, despite reported connections that Nikiforov has to Wagner Financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and tenuous connections that Mordvichev may have with Chechen Republic head Ramzan Kadyrov.[

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Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin appears to be mounting an informational counteroffensive against the conventional Russian military establishment. Following a video posted on February 16 of Wagner Group troops stating that they have been cut off from artillery supplies Wagner fighters released another video on February 17 showing a room full of bodies of deceased Wagner fighters.[17] The fighter in the video claims that Wagner is losing hundreds of personnel a day because the Russian MoD is not providing them with the weapons, ammunition, and other supplies that they need.[18] Several Wagner-affiliated Telegram channels also amplified a #GiveShellstoWagner post that explicitly tags the Russian MoD and claims (falsely) that Wagner is the only formation currently advancing in Ukraine and that Wagner elements therefore need immediate support.[19] The escalation of Wagner’s direct accusations against the Russian MoD represents a new informational counteroffensive by Prigozhin that seeks to continue to undermine the Russian MoD and obscure Wagner’s attrition-based operational model by blaming the Russian MoD for its failures.

Prigozhin has likely launched an intensified informational campaign against the Russian MoD in response to the MoD’s likely role in barring the Wagner Group from continuing its prison recruitment campaign and Prigozhin’s overall declining influence.[20] Prigozhin‘s declining prominence and the end of the Wagner Group‘s prison recruitment campaign are likely constraining the Wagner Group‘s operational capabilities in Ukraine, and it appears that the MOD continues to sideline Wagner Group forces from decisive efforts.[21] Prigozhin appears to be courting ultranationalist figures, fellow siloviki such as Chechen Head Ramzan Kadyrov, and select Russian milbloggers to aid him in his effort to regain prominence but will likely find these figures’ support to be unreliable.

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It's the kind of thing that makes me wonder how far out of the loop Putin is. Did someone falsely report to him that the Vuhledar offensive was a success? Or is Putin actually properly informed and "promoting" him to a desk job in Siberia? I dunno.

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The old adage for a state/government employee since u can’t fire the bad ones is “you promote them out of your division” and they become someone else’s problem.

British Defence Intelligence
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 18 February 2023
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE

Andrey Turchak, the leader of the Russian parliamentary group that is focused on the so-called Special Military Operation in Ukraine, stated on 16 February 2023 that the group had presented a report to Russian President Putin.

The report is likely to cover issues such as social support to those mobilised and their families. This issue is likely to become more salient if any further mobilisation (be it overt or tacit) takes place. Putin may well refer to these issues in his state of the nation address on 21 February 2023.

It is becoming increasingly difficult for the Kremlin to insulate the population from the war in Ukraine. A December 2022 Russian poll reported that 52% had either a friend or relative who had served in the so-called Special Military Operation.

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Not a legitimate government and defense force but in reality a criminal syndicate.

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That is exactly what they are. Just like the Mob. Gangsters.

That is a fricked up society.

Life in Modern Russia/ youtube

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That is a fricked up society.

Life in Modern Russia/ youtube

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A few years ago, Vice was all about how good Russia is and evil Ukraine was. They change their minds faster than a cat does

That’s just disgusting. I’m willing to bet she doesn’t really have 4 sons or if she does they aren’t in Ukraine fighting. If they are and she still has that attitude then I feel sorry for not only her but her children. Hate to tell her though she’s not having more kids. Those eggs dried up long ago on that old bitch. For the best. The works doesn’t need more offspring from her.

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Heh, Germany may HAVE to spend on defense when they realize that Poland can take them whenever they feel like it.

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One good thing that will come out of this is the Poles and other eastern European countries assuming a leading role in European political and military affairs.