re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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Germany and France still have the two largest economies by a lot, in Europe

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Germany (€4.0 trillion),
United Kingdom (€3.2 trillion),
France (€2.7 trillion),
Russia (€2.1 trillion),
Italy (€1.9 trillion),
Spain (€1.4 trillion)

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Germany (€4.0 trillion),
United Kingdom (€3.2 trillion),
France (€2.7 trillion),
Russia (€2.1 trillion),
Italy (€1.9 trillion),
Spain (€1.4 trillion)

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Italy:

The so-called "Witch of Bakhmut," Olga Bigar, recounts an action at the asphalt plant when her mortar platoon was on the frontlines there a couple months back. Apparently the Ukrainians in this sector of the front refer to the RFA as "orcs."

YouTube

Macron's speech yesterday:

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MUNICH — French President Emmanuel Macron on Friday called out Vladimir Putin for telling him last year that the paramilitary Wagner Group had nothing to do with Russia.

“A year ago I spoke to Putin and he assured me Russia had nothing to do with the Wagner Group,” he told an audience at the Munich Security Conference. “I accepted that,” he said.

The Wagner Group has since provided military services supporting Russia’s war effort. It means Moscow “formalized the fact that Wagner was an explicit, direct, diplomatic-military, neo-mafia medium of Russia around the world,” Macron said.

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"I accepted that." It's just nuts how eager so much of the world was to believe Putin. But it seems that the scales have finally fallen from Macron's eyes, as we saw from the new weapons promises yesterday.

CNN reporting that China has been providing non-lethal military aid to Russia but may be considering sending lethal aid soon.

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CNN reporting that China has been providing non-lethal military aid to Russia but may be considering sending lethal aid soon.

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I'm very skeptical that they will send lethal aid. China is already in trouble with the US about the balloon. It's economy has been in the tank since COVID. They don't want more trouble with the US and Europe right now.

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I'm very skeptical that they will send lethal aid. China is already in trouble with the US about the balloon. It's economy has been in the tank since COVID. They don't want more trouble with the US and Europe right now.

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Certainly interesting possibility given military comms between us are now reportedly cut. I’m sure if they do they’re counting us not retaliating militarily on them, but I wonder what they expect in economic sanctions for potentially aiding Russia more effectively, if any.

Good news for the Ukes

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It is like you said a very heavy piece of ordnance but it’s actually roughly 3,000 lbs not 6300 with a 1,000 lb warhead

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Thanks. Silly me saw 2900 lbs and thought it read 2900 kg.

I've been thinking about this some more, and I'm curious how you think that Russian air defense will perform against this missile.

Storm Shadow isn't very fast: only Mach 0.8. It's large size should mean that Russian radar will see it. It's not a new weapon (was used in Iraq in 2003).

So, in theory, Russian air defense might be able to intercept Storm Shadow, right? Based on Russian AD in the war so far, I'm skeptical that reality will match up to theory, but I'm curious what you think.


On a related topic, the British providing Storm Shadow means that the US now has very little reason not to provide ATACMS. For a long time, we were saying that it would be too escalatory, but we've quit saying that now, and it certainly wouldn't make any sense if Storm Shadow is hitting targets at about the same range.

No, the argument lately has been that ATACMS is no longer in production and we don't have enough to send any to Ukraine. I think that argument is rather silly, as the Army bought more ATACMS in 2019, and the only reason that production stopped was that the Army is now buying the PrSM, the successor to ATACMS.

In fact, this past July, the Senate Armed Services Committee tried to add $100 million to the DoD appropriations bill to restore older ATACMS rockets that had been withdrawn from service (but, from what I can figure out, that expenditure did not make it into the final bill passed by Congress).





So, it's really disingenuous for our leaders to say that we can't send any ATACMS to Ukraine because we don't have enough in our inventory -- because we can easily add some back to our inventory while we wait for PrSM to be produced in significant quantity. Saying that we don't have enough is just a dumb excuse that we're using because we can no longer use the escalation excuse.

So, I think that the odds are high that Biden will decide to send ATACMS to Ukraine, and that he will announce this on the 24th.

Whoa. The head of U.S. European Command and supreme allied commander for Europe just told US congressmen that we should send ATACMS and F-16s.

From Politico:

F-16s, longer-range missiles could help Ukraine beat Russia, U.S. general privately tells lawmakers

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In a Friday morning closed-door briefing with more than 10 senators and House members, Gen. Christopher Cavoli was asked if F-16 fighter jets would help Ukraine win the war against Russia. He responded: “Yes,” according to five people in the room who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a private session.

The F-16 question was part of a larger discussion over the conduct of the war and what Kyiv needs to succeed in its plans to go on the offensive, and blunt Russian offensives across hundreds of miles of front lines. Cavoli said Ukraine needs longer-range missiles to allow its forces to strike Russian positions from farther away, putting headquarters and rear supply lines at risk, which would help disrupt the Russian war machine inside Ukraine.


The general’s answer goes further than previous public comments by top national security officials, who have said they haven’t ruled out sending fighter jets in the future, but also note that air defenses are the most urgent current need.

Cavoli told the lawmakers at the Munich Security Conference that the U.S. and its allies should send the most advanced weapons they can part with to Ukraine. That included advanced aircraft, drones and missiles with ranges over 62 miles (100 kilometers), such as the Army Tactical Missile System. Those weapons would do a better job positioning Kyiv to repel Moscow’s troops, Cavoli said.

The general, who serves as both the supreme allied commander for Europe and as head of U.S. European Command, argued that Ukraine needs more advanced weapons and equipment to “enhance the deep fight,” per one of five people. A second person said Cavoli believes the West should equip Ukraine to “reach further” into Russian positions within Ukraine’s border.

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Either Gen. Cavoli very badly spoke out of turn, or he was prepping US lawmakers for big news when President Biden meets with Zelensky on the anniversary of the invasion on the 24th.

I've been saying that I believe that President Biden will announce some combo of:

- F-16s
- ATACMS
- A large number of Bradleys and Strykers

I believe that more than ever now. There are several reasons:

1) Russia's "big offensive" is already showing itself to be a nothingburger. I'm reading more military experts who are saying that Russia is just exhausting resources and making itself more vulnerable when Ukraine attacks this spring. Everyone loves a winner, and Ukraine is looking more and more like a winner in this conflict.

2) The start of the Presidential campaign means that Biden will be under increasing pressure for Ukraine to win the war. If the war degenerates into a stalemate, and Russia ends up keeping some Ukrainian territory, the GOP will attack him as weak (which they are already doing with Afghanistan, with the balloon, etc.) President Biden needs for Ukraine to win. On the other hand, if Ukraine wins the war this year or at least takes back a large amount of territory, that will give Biden an accomplishment to brag about on the campaign trail.

3) Our European allies are not only fully on board, they are pushing us to make this step. The Dutch are openly saying that they will give F-16s if the US does too. As discussed, the British are already giving Ukraine long-range weapons. As we have repeatedly seen in this war, President Biden has attempted to keep US involvement in the center of NATO. It's a war in Europe, so we need to be in step with our European partners, neither too far out in front of them, nor lagging behind -- and we are now in danger of lagging behind and failing to support our friends.

A lot of people are deciding that a year of devastation is enough, and it's time to give Ukraine what we need to give them to win the war. I think that's what we're going to do.