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Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 2/2/23 at 4:22 pm to tigeraddict
Posted on 2/2/23 at 4:22 pm to tigeraddict
quote:
i think once Ukraine gets to the border of Crimea, and the whole of Crimea is in range of Ukrainian long range attacks, russia will be at the table trying to end this war....
Russia can do the same to cities near the border. While it sounds good, two can play.
0
Posted on 2/2/23 at 4:23 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
It's really obvious that as soon as Ukraine retakes the South, the Biden administration is going to push Ukraine toward the negotiating table. In the end, Ukraine probably isn't going to take Crimea, because the US doesn't want it to.
I mean, if Biden wanted Ukraine to retake Crimea, he'd simply give them ATACMS, and they'd do it by summer, because Ukraine would take out Kerch, it would take out every ferry or ship that tried to dock anywhere in Crimea, it would take out every Russian base on the island, and the Russian force would weaken from lack of supply, to the point that Russia could no longer hold it -- the same thing that happened in Kherson.
If Ukraine retakes the South, then GLSDB can probably hit Kerch (a little further than its listed range, but certainly not a problem if winds are favorable), but it won't reach to Sevastopol, so Russia would continue to be apply to resupply Crimea by ship.
Posted on 2/2/23 at 6:06 pm to GOP_Tiger
Really interesting dispatch from The Economist:
Ukraine’s troops in the east are quietly confident
They believe they can hold the Russians off
I'm going to go ahead and lay my marker down that there will not be a big Russian offensive in the next month or so. At least, not in how we would normally think of a "big offensive."
It is in Russia's interest to hype up a supposed offensive, because Russia wants to convince its population that it is winning.
On the other hand, we have already seen -- multiple times in this war -- the Ukrainians overhype a Russian threat, so that the West will send more weapons. Ukraine needs the war to stay in the headlines, and they are unlikely to make the big push in the South until May.
In the meantime, Ukraine is going to lose Bakhmut soon. That's a bit easier to sell if it's part of a big Russian offensive.
Yes, I do know that Putin has removed almost all his remaining troops from Belarus, and they are supposedly going to make a big push toward Lyman, but I think the right way to think about it is Russia simply extending its Bakhmut attack further to the north. I don't think that Putin has assembled hundreds of tanks for a breakthrough that will collapse the Ukrainian defense -- I don't think those tanks exist. I don't think Gerasimov can wave some magic wand and create 40,000 artillery shells.
In my humble opinion (and it's worth what you paid to read it), Russia is simply going to gradually push towards Lyman like it is currently pushing in the Bakhmut area: slowly, and with significant losses.
If my guess is right and Ukraine's hopes prove true, Russia's "big offensive" will simply exhaust materiel and leave Russian forces even more vulnerable to Ukraine's big offensive in late April or May.
Ukraine’s troops in the east are quietly confident
They believe they can hold the Russians off
quote:
Colonel “maestro” is a commander in the Kupiansk sector in eastern Ukraine. He has been fighting the Russians since they first invaded, in 2014. His car has a dish for Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite-internet service, now ubiquitous along the front lines, attached to its roof. Thanks to his drone intelligence teams, he can watch what the enemy is doing on the other side of the line in real time, “24/7”. One night this week he monitored 30 Russian men being sent forward. Two of them were killed. When that happened the rest marched on regardless and did not bolt for cover. In the end nine of them died. “They either had no regard for their own lives,” he says, “or they were on drugs.”
On January 30th Jens Stoltenberg, nato’s secretary-general, said “we see that they [the Russians] are preparing for more war, that they are mobilising more soldiers, more than 200,000, and potentially even more than that.” Mr Stoltenberg is not the only one to warn that a new offensive is in the offing. Ukrainian leaders, including President Volodymyr Zelensky, have said the same, and Russian artillery strikes have sharply stepped up in recent days. But most Ukrainian soldiers at the eastern front seem curiously unfazed. Colonel Maestro’s point is that the reinforcements will not be highly trained professionals. Far from it. Many are convicts who have joined the mercenary Wagner Group deployed in the fighting around the city of Bakhmut, because to do so is a way to get out of jail. Their motivation is low, unlike that of the men they are fighting.
quote:
Meanwhile, Brigadier-General Sergiy Melnyk, who oversees a large part of the Kharkiv region, including its border with Russia, says drones and satellite imagery have not indicated any new build-up of troops there. In fact, he says, the Russians are digging trenches and building defensive positions as if it is they who are expecting an attack.
quote:
The general hastens to add that there is no room for complacency. He is preparing in case the Russians do launch a fresh push, he says, just as his own forces are getting ready for their own counter-offensive to drive the Russians out of the Ukrainian territory they occupy.
I'm going to go ahead and lay my marker down that there will not be a big Russian offensive in the next month or so. At least, not in how we would normally think of a "big offensive."
It is in Russia's interest to hype up a supposed offensive, because Russia wants to convince its population that it is winning.
On the other hand, we have already seen -- multiple times in this war -- the Ukrainians overhype a Russian threat, so that the West will send more weapons. Ukraine needs the war to stay in the headlines, and they are unlikely to make the big push in the South until May.
In the meantime, Ukraine is going to lose Bakhmut soon. That's a bit easier to sell if it's part of a big Russian offensive.
Yes, I do know that Putin has removed almost all his remaining troops from Belarus, and they are supposedly going to make a big push toward Lyman, but I think the right way to think about it is Russia simply extending its Bakhmut attack further to the north. I don't think that Putin has assembled hundreds of tanks for a breakthrough that will collapse the Ukrainian defense -- I don't think those tanks exist. I don't think Gerasimov can wave some magic wand and create 40,000 artillery shells.
In my humble opinion (and it's worth what you paid to read it), Russia is simply going to gradually push towards Lyman like it is currently pushing in the Bakhmut area: slowly, and with significant losses.
If my guess is right and Ukraine's hopes prove true, Russia's "big offensive" will simply exhaust materiel and leave Russian forces even more vulnerable to Ukraine's big offensive in late April or May.
Posted on 2/2/23 at 6:52 pm to GOP_Tiger
I've been trying and failing to find anything on what the Russian troops in Transnistria have been doing or if they have even been rotated since this whole thing began
Posted on 2/2/23 at 6:56 pm to GOP_Tiger
I respect that analysis and see the logic, but why would Russia willingly put itself into such an ultimately untenable position?
Putin badly misjudged the initial invasion.
He is not so stupid or crazy to fail to recognize that miscalculation so fully as many think.
Let’s respect our adversaries enough to understand that they are unlikely to act irrationally over time, nor to fail to recognize their catastrophic errors.
I suspect Russia thinks that if it can improve its position a bit in 2023, the war will become a big Presidential Campaign issue in 24 and Europe will also lose its will.
They may not need to take Kiev to reach their main objectives: land and resources.
Putin badly misjudged the initial invasion.
He is not so stupid or crazy to fail to recognize that miscalculation so fully as many think.
Let’s respect our adversaries enough to understand that they are unlikely to act irrationally over time, nor to fail to recognize their catastrophic errors.
I suspect Russia thinks that if it can improve its position a bit in 2023, the war will become a big Presidential Campaign issue in 24 and Europe will also lose its will.
They may not need to take Kiev to reach their main objectives: land and resources.
This post was edited on 2/2/23 at 7:57 pm
Posted on 2/2/23 at 7:15 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
The CEO of General Atomics has lost patience with the Biden administration's refusal to send its Gray Eagle or Reaper drones to Ukraine:
I do not believe that the west wants to see a total Ukrainian victory. They are afraid of what comes after Putin in regards to the Russian Federation.
BTW: Did anyone see Putin's speech in Stalingrad today?
Posted on 2/2/23 at 7:38 pm to GOP_Tiger
I just read a long article from the Sueddeutsche Zeitung that had some interesting info about the struggle to get ammo for the Gepards.
LINK
I had to feed it through archive.ph to get past the paywall, and then I fed it through Google Translate.
For those unaware, the Gepard consists of a Leopard 1 tank hull with two radar-guided, 30mm anti-aircraft guns on top. These guns could also be pointed forward, so the Gepard could also be used to engage enemy ground forces, but that's mostly irrelevant, because the Gepard has become one of Ukraine's most critical defensive weapons.
SPAAGs (self-propelled anti-aircraft guns) such as the Gepard were thought to be somewhat obsolete, but they have become the indispensable weapon to shoot down the Iranian Shahed drones. It's very wasteful to use a $100,000 rocket to shoot down a $20,000 drone. Those rockets' primary purpose is to defend against cruise missiles.
But the unique 30mm ammo for the Gepard was primarily manufactured by Rheinmetall's Swiss subsidiary, meaning that Swiss permission would be needed to send it to Ukraine -- and the Swiss constitution forbids sending weapons to conflict zones.
LINK
I had to feed it through archive.ph to get past the paywall, and then I fed it through Google Translate.
quote:
The anthems in the Lusail Stadium in Qatar had just faded away, Lionel Messi and his Argentinians had completed their laps of honor with the World Cup when Germany wasted no more time. In the days following the December 18 World Cup final, German officials arrived at Qatar's foreign ministry with an urgent request. Whether one could not now talk about the anti-aircraft tank Gepard and the ammunition stocks stored in the Gulf state. Something like this is urgently needed - in Ukraine.
During the World Cup, the cheetahs [Gepard translates to cheetah] had protected the stadiums from possible terrorist attacks from the air, 15 of which had been decommissioned by the Bundeswehr, Krauss Maffei Wegmann (KMW) had sold the emirate with the approval of the Federal Government by Chancellor Angela Merkel (CDU).
For those unaware, the Gepard consists of a Leopard 1 tank hull with two radar-guided, 30mm anti-aircraft guns on top. These guns could also be pointed forward, so the Gepard could also be used to engage enemy ground forces, but that's mostly irrelevant, because the Gepard has become one of Ukraine's most critical defensive weapons.
SPAAGs (self-propelled anti-aircraft guns) such as the Gepard were thought to be somewhat obsolete, but they have become the indispensable weapon to shoot down the Iranian Shahed drones. It's very wasteful to use a $100,000 rocket to shoot down a $20,000 drone. Those rockets' primary purpose is to defend against cruise missiles.
But the unique 30mm ammo for the Gepard was primarily manufactured by Rheinmetall's Swiss subsidiary, meaning that Swiss permission would be needed to send it to Ukraine -- and the Swiss constitution forbids sending weapons to conflict zones.
quote:
So Ukraine has to make do with the 60,000 shots that came from Germany. According to information from the Süddeutsche Zeitung, a good 30,000 of these have been used. For weeks now, in the fight against drone and rocket attacks, mostly only the economy mode has been set in the fire control computer, that is six shots, while in normal mode 25 shots can be fired from the two cannon barrels.
Sources in the armaments industry describe the situation as follows: Ukraine was supplied with tanks with too little ammunition and is therefore now caught in the cheetah trap, mainly because of Switzerland. In the federal government, one is therefore not on good terms with the neighbors. The Ukrainians are said to hardly use the tank in ground combat anymore, as they did in the beginning. The ammunition consumption was enormous.
In war, the rule is that you have to make do with what you have, it is emphasized internally. The Ukrainian cheetah crews trained at German shooting ranges are now considered first-class, and a 60-year-old doctor from Kyiv achieved an astonishing hit rate during target practice. In real operations, the Ukrainians should only need a short burst of six to ten shots to hit a drone, for example. They have learned to come to terms with the economy mode, instead of "combat" they usually only choose the "training" mode with fewer shots. But even so, the ammunition will eventually run out.
quote:
Brazil, which also bought Gepard tanks from Bundeswehr stocks to protect the stadiums at its 2014 World Cup, is said to have large quantities of ammunition, like Switzerland. But Brazil's new President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva recently gave a strict refusal to pass it on during a visit by Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD). They don't want to get involved in the war - they want to start a peace mission with China. The Chancellor stood there somewhat duped.
Much is now focused on Qatar. Around 16,000 shots were sold to the emirate. Thought games go so far as to buy back the 15 cheetahs right away. Since the World Cup final, the country no longer needs the tanks. However, little is uncomplicated or even quick in the Arab world. An armaments expert says that Qatar should simply be offered the much more modern Skyguard air defense system, "they always want the latest."
Defense Minister Pistorius can well imagine buying back the 15 Gepard tanks and ammunition: "The Cheetahs have proven themselves very well in the war in Ukraine. If we could get more from partners here, that would definitely help the Ukrainians," said he the SZ. The Qatari Ministry of Defense has left an SZ inquiry about the willingness to sell unanswered.
quote:
Both experts and Western secret services fear that the war could intensify significantly in the coming months. This also exacerbates the ammunition problem. In order to solve the problem permanently, Rheinmetall is now rushing to set up a production line for 35 mm ammunition in Unterlüß, Lower Saxony. However, production cannot start until June, and deliveries are not expected until July at the earliest.
The Bundeswehr wants to order two times 150,000 rounds from Rheinmetall, because the company produces two variants. One is particularly suitable for aerial targets because of its large fragmentation effect, but is more complicated to manufacture. With another variant you have to hit the target directly, but it is easier and faster to produce. Still, the six months until then could be crucial.
Posted on 2/2/23 at 7:40 pm to AU86
quote:
BTW: Did anyone see Putin's speech in Stalingrad today?
I just watched a little bit of it. He’s really trying to sell this to the Russian people as a Nazi invasion from the West again.
I think Russia really will ramp this war up and it’ll get real ugly this year. I really hope I’m wrong but I think Putin is going to throw all the chips in on this one. It’s going to get very ugly in Ukraine I think.
I’ve been very surprised and glad to see the resistance from Ukraine in 2022. They really did do a fantastic job of trying to stop Russia, but I think at the end of the day, without real military help from the West, Russia was going to end up getting what they wanted. Putin doesn’t care how many Russian lives it takes. Russians are just different with this kind of stuff. They’re ruthless and it’s just terrible what they’ve done and might possibly do in the future. It’s not necessarily the Russian people either, it’s just their leaders and government. They do whatever they want at the end of the day and their people have no say so.
This post was edited on 2/2/23 at 7:42 pm
Posted on 2/2/23 at 8:01 pm to GOP_Tiger
Some in Switzerland are trying to change their constitution, so that weapons could go to Ukraine, but in the meantime, there's another way that they may be able to help: in addition to the 134 Leopard 2 tanks that the Swiss have modernized, they also have 96 Leopard 2 tanks in storage that were not upgraded and are deemed unnecessary.
Under its constitution, Switzerland can't give these to Ukraine, but it can (wink, wink) sell them back to Rheinmetall, and then the German government could upgrade them and send them to Ukraine.
The reality is that a lot more Leopard 2 tanks are in Europe and available to send to Ukraine than are being sent in this first batch.
Under its constitution, Switzerland can't give these to Ukraine, but it can (wink, wink) sell them back to Rheinmetall, and then the German government could upgrade them and send them to Ukraine.
The reality is that a lot more Leopard 2 tanks are in Europe and available to send to Ukraine than are being sent in this first batch.
Posted on 2/2/23 at 8:30 pm to GOP_Tiger
There was another interesting tidbit in the Sueddeutsche Zeitung article: in addition to Scholz approaching Brazil's Lula and getting turned down when he asked for Gepard ammo, Scholz also asked for and got denied when he asked for 105mm ammo for the Leopard 1 tank.
And that's interesting, as there are a lot of old Leopard 1 tanks lying around. I read that Germany has at least 100 in storage, the Danes have retired some 90 of them, etc. Some countries have used their Leopard 1s for target practice, because its 105mm gun isn't strong enough to pierce the armor of many Russian tanks, and the Leopard 1 doesn't have a very tough skin itself.
On the other hand, is it really any more obsolete than the T-62s that Russia is deploying? I would think that Ukraine could still find them useful in secondary and support roles. I mean, they're still strong enough to push mine rollers and plows, right? So, I wonder if Ukraine might want them.
And that's interesting, as there are a lot of old Leopard 1 tanks lying around. I read that Germany has at least 100 in storage, the Danes have retired some 90 of them, etc. Some countries have used their Leopard 1s for target practice, because its 105mm gun isn't strong enough to pierce the armor of many Russian tanks, and the Leopard 1 doesn't have a very tough skin itself.
On the other hand, is it really any more obsolete than the T-62s that Russia is deploying? I would think that Ukraine could still find them useful in secondary and support roles. I mean, they're still strong enough to push mine rollers and plows, right? So, I wonder if Ukraine might want them.
Posted on 2/2/23 at 8:39 pm to GOP_Tiger
NY Times:
Soaring Death Toll Gives Grim Insight Into Russian Tactics
Soaring Death Toll Gives Grim Insight Into Russian Tactics
quote:
WASHINGTON — The number of Russian troops killed and wounded in Ukraine is approaching 200,000, a stark symbol of just how badly President Vladimir V. Putin’s invasion has gone, according to American and other Western officials.
While the officials caution that casualties are notoriously difficult to estimate, particularly because Moscow is believed to routinely undercount its war dead and injured, they say the slaughter from fighting in and around the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut and the town of Soledar has ballooned what was already a heavy toll.
With Moscow desperate for a major battlefield victory and viewing Bakhmut as the key to seizing the entire eastern Donbas area, the Russian military has sent poorly trained recruits and former convicts to the front lines, straight into the path of Ukrainian shelling and machine guns. The result, American officials say, has been hundreds of troops killed or injured a day.
Posted on 2/2/23 at 8:43 pm to GOP_Tiger
Cannon fodder is the Russian way, we need to up the ante. We need to send the Ukes about 50 of the new drones we have been playing with
This post was edited on 2/2/23 at 8:45 pm
Posted on 2/2/23 at 8:55 pm to TutHillTiger
isw update
quote:
A Ukrainian intelligence official stated that Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the Russian military to capture Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts by March 2023, supporting ISW’s most likely course of action assessment (MLCOA) for a Russian offensive in eastern Ukraine. Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Representative Andriy Chernyak told the Kyiv Post on February 1 that Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the Russian military to capture all of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts by March 2023
quote:
Russian authorities blocked internet cell service in occupied Luhansk Oblast likely as part of an effort to intensify operational security to conceal new Russian force deployments in Luhansk Oblast. The only mobile cell service provider in Russian-occupied Luhansk Oblast reported on February 2 that it would suspend mobile internet coverage in Luhansk Oblast starting on February 11 on orders from the Russian Ministry of Digital Development, Communications and Mass Media.[2] The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported that Russian officials already disabled mobile internet in occupied Luhansk Oblast as of February 2.
quote:
Putin may have overestimated the Russian military’s own capabilities again, as ISW previously assessed.[6] ISW has not observed any evidence that Russian forces have restored sufficient combat power to defeat Ukraine’s forces in eastern Ukraine and capture over 11,300 square kilometers of unoccupied Donetsk Oblast (over 42 percent of Donetsk Oblast’s total area) before March as Putin reportedly ordered. ISW previously assessed that a major Russian offensive before April 2023 would likely prematurely culminate during the April spring rain season (if not before) before achieving operationally significant effects.[7] Russian forces’ culmination could then generate favorable conditions for Ukrainian forces to exploit in their own late spring or summer 2023 counteroffensive after incorporating Western tank deliveries
quote:
Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov supported ISW’s MLCOA assessment and possibly suggested that Russian forces have mobilized substantially more personnel for an imminent offensive. Reznikov stated on February 2 that Russian forces are preparing to launch an offensive, likely in eastern or southern Ukraine.[9] Reznikov stated that Ukrainian officials estimate that the number of mobilized Russian personnel is higher than the Kremlin’s official 300,000 figure.[10] Reznikov stated that the Kremlin mobilized 500,000 Russian soldiers, although it is unclear whether this figure refers to Russian force generation efforts following the start of partial mobilization in September of 2022 or the total number of forces that Russia has committed to the war in Ukraine. Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Head Kyrylo Budanov stated on January 31 that there are currently 326,000 Russian forces fighting in Ukraine, excluding the 150,000 mobilized personnel still at training grounds.
quote:
Russian officials are continuing efforts to frame the war in Ukraine as an existential threat to Russian audiences in order to set information conditions for a protracted war and maintain domestic support for continued military operations. In a February 2 speech at a concert dedicated to the 80th anniversary of the defeat of Nazi troops by the Red Army in the Battle of Stalingrad, Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed that Russia is once again facing a modern manifestation of Nazism that is directly threatening Russian security.[12] Putin falsely accused the collective West of forcing Russia to repel its aggression and remarked that Russia is “once against being threatened with German Leopard tanks” that are “going to fight with Russia on the soil of Ukraine with the hands of Hitler‘s descendants.” [13] Putin has previously similarly weaponized erroneous historical parallels to analogize the “special military operation” in Ukraine with the Great Patriotic War, partially in an effort to set long-term information conditions for a protracted war in Ukraine.
quote:
These efforts on the part of Russian officials are not succeeding in generating the likely desired effect of motivating Russians to want to participate in the war, however. Russian State Services announced that as of February 2, the acceptance of applications for new passports has been suspended.[16] Russian research and design joint-stock company Goznak (responsible for manufacturing security products such as banknotes and identity cards) responded with a statement that it has received an inundation of applications for the personalization of foreign passports, which require special embedded microchips.[17] The shortage of microchips for passports and subsequent suspension of passport applications are in part consequences of the mass application for foreign passports in 2022, partially due to the exodus caused by partial mobilization.[18] The Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs reported that it issued over 5.4 million passports in 2022, 40% more than in the previous year.[19] The increase in passport applications indicates that social conditioning efforts to bring the “special military operation” home to Russia and reinvigorate patriotic fervor are not having the desired effect. The Kremlin need not look further than passport statistics to poll domestic attitudes on the Russian population’s desire to fight Putin’s war
quote:
Key Takeaways
A Ukrainian intelligence official stated that Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the Russian military to capture Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts by March 2023, supporting ISW’s most likely course of action assessment (MLCOA) for a Russian offensive in eastern Ukraine.
Russian authorities blocked internet cell service in occupied Luhansk Oblast likely as part of an effort to intensify operational security to conceal new Russian force deployments in Luhansk Oblast.
Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov supported ISW’s MLCOA assessment and possibly suggested that Russian forces have mobilized substantially more personnel for an imminent offensive.
Russian officials are continuing efforts to frame the war in Ukraine as an existential threat to Russian audiences in order to set information conditions for protracted war and maintain domestic support for continued military operations. These efforts on the part of Russian officials are not succeeding in generating the likely desired effect of motivating Russians to want to participate in the war, however.
Russian and Ukrainian sources suggested that Russian forces may be preparing offensive actions in the Svatove area.
Russian forces intensified ground attacks in the Kreminna area on February 2.
Russian forces continued ground attacks northeast and southwest of Bakhmut.
Russian officials are likely trying to prepare the Russian military’s disciplinary apparatus for an influx of mobilized personnel.
Russian forces and occupation authorities continue efforts to identify and arrest Crimean Tatars on allegations that they associate with extremist movements banned in Russia.
Russian federal subjects and occupation authorities continued announcing patronage programs to support infrastructure projects in occupied territories.
Posted on 2/2/23 at 9:01 pm to StormyMcMan
They are obviously about to launch. Major offensive, worst kept secret in the world
Posted on 2/2/23 at 9:10 pm to StormyMcMan
quote:
I've been trying and failing to find anything on what the Russian troops in Transnistria have been doing or if they have even been rotated since this whole thing began
Early on I read an article that referred to them as "poor quality.". Problem is Moldova only has about 8000 troops itself. I don't know why Ukraine doesn't conclude a mutual defense pact with Moldova and overrun them. It would be a cheap way to frick over Russia and what is Putin going to do, go to war over it?
Posted on 2/2/23 at 10:12 pm to Jim Rockford
Most likely because Putin would use it as proof that the "satanic, depraved, and thoroughly evil west that is controlled by Jewish Nazi's" is an existential threat to Russia.
It may have little effect outside Russia than the vocal fringe and more overt assets jumping up in down with glee that they were "right", but it would certainly mollify tension in Russia itself over the issues with the war so far, and provide validity in Russian eyes about his narrative.
It may have little effect outside Russia than the vocal fringe and more overt assets jumping up in down with glee that they were "right", but it would certainly mollify tension in Russia itself over the issues with the war so far, and provide validity in Russian eyes about his narrative.
Posted on 2/2/23 at 10:23 pm to sta4ever
quote:
I think Russia really will ramp this war up and it’ll get real ugly this year. I really hope I’m wrong but I think Putin is going to throw all the chips in on this one. It’s going to get very ugly in Ukraine
I agree 100%.
Posted on 2/2/23 at 10:54 pm to sta4ever
Agreed, it's kitchen sink time for the Russians.
Posted on 2/2/23 at 10:56 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
But the unique 30mm ammo for the Gepard was primarily manufactured by Rheinmetall's Swiss subsidiary, meaning that Swiss permission would be needed to send it to Ukraine -- and the Swiss constitution forbids sending weapons to conflict zones.
At the risk of asking a stupid question - why would anybody source munitions from a country with a constitutional prohibition on sending those munitions to conflict zones?
I would think “can we get more of this if war breaks out” would be a pretty key question at some point along the line… right?
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