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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 1/19/23 at 8:11 pm to GOP_Tiger
Posted on 1/19/23 at 8:11 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
I think it simply goes back to the idea of NATO acting in unison. So, Ukraine won't get any planes until NATO is collectively ready to give planes. I don't think that will happen until the summer. Ukraine needs time to get roads ready this spring that can be "remote airstrips" and can handle F-16s. But it's also just NATO working systematically. We initially gave ATGMs, then artillery, then air defense, and now tanks and heavy armor. Aircraft is next
Aircraft are honestly one of the last things they need anyway. This is mainly a ground war and outside of dogfighting with Russian jets aircraft really aren’t needed. If this war has proven anything it’s that close air support is becoming a thing of the past.
Surface to surface munitions are just as accurate as bombs from an airplane, cheaper both economically and logistically, require less training and much more responsive than airplanes. Anything other than deep strike by bombers or air to air can be done better and cheaper by precision guided artillery, HIMARS and these new ground launched SBDs.
5
Posted on 1/19/23 at 8:17 pm to GeauxxxTigers23
Which is an interesting concept. How do you counter extremely accurate surface to surface munitions? High altitude bombing? Traditional air strikes? You'd lose alot of equipment and troops by the time you located them unless you had constant Intel.
Posted on 1/19/23 at 8:21 pm to AllDayEveryDay
quote:
How do you counter extremely accurate surface to surface munitions?
I think it will eventually be lasers or energy directed weapons that can quickly “shoot down” drones or incoming munitions.
Posted on 1/19/23 at 8:22 pm to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:
If this war has proven anything it’s that close air support is becoming a thing of the past.
We thought trench warfare was a thing of the past but here we are. There's something to be said for the ability to eyeball a target of opportunity and put heavy ordnance on it in real time. I don't think we're quite there with drones and artillery yet.
Posted on 1/19/23 at 8:22 pm to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:
If this war has proven anything it’s that close air support is becoming a thing of the past.
We thought trench warfare was a thing of the past but here we are. There's something to be said for the ability to eyeball a target of opportunity and put heavy ordnance on it in real time. I don't think we're quite there with drones and artillery yet.
Posted on 1/19/23 at 8:22 pm to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:
If this war has proven anything it’s that close air support is becoming a thing of the past.
We thought trench warfare was a thing of the past but here we are. There's something to be said for the ability to eyeball a target of opportunity and put heavy ordnance on it in real time. I don't think we're quite there with drones and artillery yet.
Posted on 1/19/23 at 8:22 pm to WeeWee
quote:
it is going to be a milf winter
I love a good milf winter
Posted on 1/19/23 at 8:25 pm to Jim Rockford
I mean I could be wrong, but my thinking is that these high precision, highly mobile and highly responsive surface to surface weapons have almost forced us back into a trench style of warfare. Maneuvering on the battlefield is deadly until defensive weapons are effective and numerous enough on the battlefield to allow large formations to move around in the open again.
Posted on 1/19/23 at 8:27 pm to GeauxxxTigers23
I think one of the main takeaways from this conflict is the need for drone offensive and defensive capabilities.
If either Russia or Ukraine had the ability to deploy drone swarms it would be a battlefield changer.
We have entered the age of the drone.
If either Russia or Ukraine had the ability to deploy drone swarms it would be a battlefield changer.
We have entered the age of the drone.
Posted on 1/19/23 at 8:34 pm to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:
I mean I could be wrong, but my thinking is that these high precision, highly mobile and highly responsive surface to surface weapons have almost forced us back into a trench style of warfare. Maneuvering on the battlefield is deadly until defensive weapons are effective and numerous enough on the battlefield to allow large formations to move around in the open again.
I agree with you and I think drones are the answer. Comptemplate a US deployed drone swarm with 1000 drones coming over the treetops, some of them are recon drones, some are radar drones, some are EW drones, some are anti-drone drones, and the majority are kamikaze drones. They are all talking to each other and developing a real-time 3D image of the battlespace as they progress. Targets are marked, evaluated, prioritized, and taken out en masse.
Tucked away safely KM behind the lines are long-range artillery and rocket systems, anything the drone swarm couldn't handle would be relayed to the long-range fires and within minutes, destroyed.
This is what the future looks like on the battle field.
Posted on 1/19/23 at 8:53 pm to Chromdome35
LINK
I swear Russia keeps using the "If you do the things that have already been done it will be an escalation!!"
quote:
Senior Kremlin officials continue holding high-level meetings with Belarusian national leadership – activity that could be setting conditions for a Russian attack against Ukraine from Belarus, although not necessarily and not in the coming weeks. Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu and Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin discussed unspecified bilateral military cooperation, the implementation of unspecified strategic deterrence measures, and “progress in preparing” the joint Russian-Belarusian Regional Grouping of Troops (RGV) in a January 19 phone call.[1] Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov met Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko in Minsk and discussed an unspecified Russo-Belarusian “shared vision” for Russia’s war in Ukraine on January 19.[2] Lavrov and Belarusian Foreign Minister Sergey Aleinik discussed how Russia and Belarus can defeat an ongoing Western hybrid war against the states and signed an unspecified memorandum of cooperation on “ensuring biological security.
quote:
The most dangerous course of action (MDCOA) of a new Russian attack against Ukraine from Belarus in early 2023 seems less likely given current Russian military activity in Belarus. A new MDCOA of an attack from Belarus in late 2023 seems more likely. Russian forces currently deployed in Belarus are undergoing training rotations and redeploying to fight in eastern Ukraine.[5] There are no observed indicators that Russian forces in Belarus have the command and control structures necessary for the winter or spring 2023 attack against Ukraine about which Ukrainian issued warnings in late 2022.[6] It seems more likely that Russian forces may be setting conditions for a new MDCOA of attacking Ukraine from Belarus in late 2023 given recent Ukrainian intelligence reports that Russia and Belarus plan to conduct major exercises (Zapad 2023 and Union Shield 2023), likely in September 2023
quote:
Russia’s nationalist military bloggers continue to criticize the idea of Russian forces attacking Ukraine from Belarus. Russian milbloggers continue to react negatively every time the idea of Russian forces attacking Ukraine from Belarus resurfaces. One milblogger stated that it is a bad idea for Russia to significantly expand the front from Belarus because Russian forces’ battlefield performance improved after compressing the front following Russia’s withdrawal from upper Kherson
quote:
Lavrov attacked the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), underscoring the infeasibility of the Kremlin supporting a third Minsk-type agreement. Lavrov accused NATO and the European Union of using the OSCE against Russia and falsely claimed that the OSCE agreed to the Minsk agreements (the failed ceasefire accords that the Kremlin coerced Ukraine into accepting in 2014-2015, which stipulated major political concessions undermining Ukraine’s sovereignty) only to buy time to prepare for a war against Russia.[10] Lavrov accused unspecified OSCE Special Monitoring Mission staff in Ukraine of aiding Ukraine in conducting military operations against civilians in Donbas.[11]
The OSCE was a key neutral party in implementing the first two Minsk agreements in 2014 and 2015.
quote:
Lukashenko continues to balance against the Kremlin by framing Belarus as a sovereign state within the Russia-dominated Union State. Lukashenko’s readout of his meeting with Lavrov stated that he and Lavrov identified unspecified areas of cooperation to “preserve the sovereignty of the two countries in all respects.”[14] This rhetoric is consistent with Lukashenko's longstanding efforts to avoid ceding Belarusian sovereignty to the Kremlin-dominated Union State structure
quote:
The Kremlin is intensifying its information operation to promote a false narrative that the war will escalate if Ukraine receives weapons capable of striking Russian forces in occupied Crimea. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov responded on January 19 to a New York Times report that US officials are considering providing Kyiv with weapons capable of striking Russian military infrastructure in occupied Crimea and southern Ukraine.[16] Peskov stated that Western provisions of long-range weapons to Ukraine that can threaten Russian forces in Crimea will bring ”the conflict to a new qualitive level, which will not go well for global and pan-European security.”[17] Peskov added that even the discussion of providing such weapons is ”potentially extremely dangerous,” but then noted that Ukraine already has weapons that it uses to strike occupied territories in Ukraine
I swear Russia keeps using the "If you do the things that have already been done it will be an escalation!!"
quote:
Peskov’s threats are part of a Russian information operation designed to discourage Western support to Ukraine and do not correspond to Russia’s actual capabilities to escalate against the West. Kremlin officials have made similar threats regarding select Western security assistance in the past and will likely continue to do so in the future. Russia forces, however, do not have the capacity to escalate their conventional war effort in Ukraine and certainly are not capable of conducting successful conventional military operations against the West and NATO in their current state. Russia has severely weakened its military posture against NATO by deploying military units and equipment – including air defense systems – away from NATO and to Ukraine and suffering horrific losses in men and materiel.[18] The Kremlin never assessed that it could defeat NATO in a conventional war, moreover, an assessment that was at the heart of its hybrid warfare doctrine.[19] The Kremlin seeks to minimize Western military aid to Ukraine by stoking fears of an escalation Russia cannot execute. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s theory of victory likely depends on Putin’s will to force his people to fight outlasting the West’s willingness to support Ukraine over time
quote:
The Kremlin is also very unlikely to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine and extraordinarily unlikely to use them against the West despite consistently leaning on tired nuclear escalation threats. Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev, in response to NATO Command’s planned January 20 meeting in Germany, stated on January 19 that Western officials do not understand that the “loss of a nuclear power in a conventional war can provoke the outbreak of a nuclear war.”[21] Medvedev argued that ”nuclear powers [like the Russian Federation] have not lost major conflicts on which their fate depends.”[22] Medvedev routinely makes hyperbolic and inflammatory comments, including threats of nuclear escalation, in support of Russian information operations that aim to weaken Western support for Ukraine and that are out of touch with actual Kremlin positions regarding the war in Ukraine
Posted on 1/19/23 at 8:56 pm to StormyMcMan
quote:
Russian President Vladimir Putin is increasingly siding with the adversaries of Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin, likely in an ongoing effort to degrade Prigozhin’s influence in Russia. Putin met on January 18, 2023 with St. Petersburg Governor Alexander Beglov – one of Prigozhin's overt enemies – for the first time since early March 2022 to discuss St. Petersburg’s role in the Russian war effort.[25] Beglov stated that his administration formed three volunteer battalions that support Russia’s invasion of Ukraine under the Russian Western Military District (WMD).
Putin’s demonstrative meeting with Beglov and their specific discussion of Beglov’s contribution to the war effort directly challenges Prigozhin’s ongoing effort to assert his own authority over Beglov and St. Petersburg. Putin had also recently reappointed Colonel General Aleksandr Lapin, former commander of the Central Military District (CMD) as the Chief of Staff of the Russian Ground Forces despite Lapin receiving significant criticism from the siloviki faction of which Prigozhin is a prominent member.[28] Putin had also doubled down on the official rhetoric that only Russian forces contributed to the capture of Soledar, Donetsk Oblast, rejecting Prigozhin’s claims that Wagner forces had accomplished the tactical victory.[29] Putin is likely attempting to reduce Prigozhin’s prominence in favor of the re-emerging professional Russian military and Russian government officials.
quote:
Prigozhin nevertheless continues to use claims about the Wagner Group’s tactical success to elevate his position, likely deepening a conflict with the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) for influence in the Russian information space. Prigozhin claimed on January 19 that Wagner Group elements captured Klishchiivka, Donetsk Oblast, and emphasized that Wagner Group forces were exclusively responsible for the tactical advances south of Bakhmut.[30] This statement is the first time Prigozhin has personally broken news of a purported Russian tactical success and likely supports Prigozhin‘s effort to promote himself as an independently successful wartime leader
Prigozhin’s announcement generated widespread conversation among Russian milbloggers about the operational significance of the Russian capture of the settlement.[33] The Russian MoD’s announcement concerning the capture of Sil, Donetsk Oblast near Soledar on January 18 generated far less conversation and excitement amongst Russian milbloggers.[34] The Russian Ministry of Defense previously tried to downplay the Wagner Group’s involvement in the capture of neighboring Sil by referring to Wagner Group fighters as ”volunteers of assault detachments” on January 18.[35] The Russian MoD has started to use more specific language for Russian units in its reporting on Russian operations likely in order to claim more responsibility for tactical advances and minimize Prigozhin’s ability to claim that Wagner Group forces are the only Russian forces that are able to secure tactical advances in Ukraine.[
quote:
Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov reportedly declared that the Wagner Group does not belong in the structure of the Russian Armed Forces. Gerasimov allegedly responded to Moscow City Duma parliamentarian Yevgeny Stupin’s inquiry on the status of the Wagner Group and its “operational interaction” with the Russian Armed Forces in an official letter, dated December 29, 2022, that Stupin shared on his Telegram on January 19.[37] Stupin stated that he had received numerous complaints from his constituents who have relatives serving in Wagner detachments that they are unable to contact officials that would connect them with their family members on the frontlines. Gerasimov stated in the letter that “the organization [Stupin] referred to as PMC Wagner does not belong to the structure of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation” and that ?the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) is not responsible for Wagner servicemen?[38].”? Stupin asserted that the letter is real, although ISW has no independent verification of his claim.
Clear evidence indicates that Wagner Group has operated under the direction of the Russian chain of command[39].? A Bellingcat investigation found that Wagner founder Dmitry Utkin reported to current Western Military District Commander Lieutenant General Evgeny [40] – among other Russian military intelligence officials – when Nikiforov was the Chief of Staff of the Russian 58th Combined Arms Army in 2015.? The Russian Ministry of Defense recently claimed on January 13 that Russian forces worked with the Wagner Group to capture
quote:
Key Takeaways
Senior Kremlin officials continue holding high-level meetings with Belarusian national leadership – activity that could be setting conditions for a Russian attack against Ukraine from Belarus, although not necessarily and not in the coming weeks.
A new Russian attack against Ukraine from Belarus in early 2023 seems less likely given current Russian military activity in Belarus, although an attack from Belarus in late 2023 seems more plausible.
Ultranationalist Russian milbloggers continue to criticize the idea of Russian forces attacking Ukraine from Belarus.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov attacked the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), underscoring the infeasibility of the Kremlin supporting a third Minsk-type agreement.
Lukashenko continues to balance against the Kremlin by framing Belarus as sovereign state within the Russian-dominated Union State.
The Kremlin continues to falsely promote a narrative that the war will escalate if Ukraine receives weapons with the capability to strike Russian forces in occupied Crimea.
An extremist Kremlin ally reintroduced nuclear escalation rhetoric aimed at scaring Western policymakers away providing additional military aid to Ukraine.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is increasingly siding with the enemies of Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin, likely in an ongoing effort to reduce Prigozhin’s influence in Russia.
Prigozhin’s continued use of the Wagner Group’s claimed tactical success to elevate his position is likely deepening a conflict with the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) for influence in the Russian information space.
Russian Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov may have officially declared that the Wagner Group does not belong in the structure of the Russian Armed Forces and that the Russian military does not collaborate with Wagner despite ample evidence to the contrary.
Ukrainian forces reportedly continued counteroffensive operations near Svatove, and Russian forces conducted limited counterattacks near Kreminna.
Russian sources claimed that Russian forces captured Klishchiivka amidst ongoing Russian offensive operations around Soledar, Bakhmut, and Avdiivka.
Russian sources claimed that Russian forces conducted localized offensive operations in Zaporizhia Oblast.
Russian officials are reportedly continuing to prepare for a second wave of mobilization.
Ukrainian partisans may have conducted an IED attack in Zaporizhia Oblast.
Posted on 1/19/23 at 9:48 pm to StormyMcMan
From the Washington Post:
I guess the CIA knows whether the Belarus stuff is real or not, and now Zelensky knows.
LINK
quote:
CIA Director William J. Burns traveled in secret to Ukraine’s capital at the end of last week to brief President Volodymyr Zelensky on his expectations for what Russia is planning militarily in the coming weeks and months, said a U.S. official and other people familiar with the visit.
Burns’s travel comes at a critical juncture in the 11-month war. Russian forces are mounting a massive assault near the eastern city of Bakhmut that is causing many casualties on both sides and forcing Ukraine to weigh its resources there as it prepares a major counteroffensive elsewhere in the country.
I guess the CIA knows whether the Belarus stuff is real or not, and now Zelensky knows.
LINK
This post was edited on 1/19/23 at 9:49 pm
Posted on 1/19/23 at 10:37 pm to Chromdome35
I think we see that but also a lot more of stealth loitering drones with the ability to cover miles upon miles from an extremely high position undetected. They will have ability to pass along gps coordinates like you said.
Also larger stealth loitering drones that can drop a bomb that the then opens to hundreds of smaller bombs that can penetrate from above on tanks all with their own thermal ability, guidance and small thrust ability. These will be used to take out formations
We already have pretty much real time battlefield oversight but within the decade that shot will be in extreme hd. We will have anti drone warfare, drones for every conceivable mission just like you said.
By 2050 I do believe we will have the immediate ability to shoot down any mussel in the world at any time so long as we know of the hotspot 24 hours in advance to be able to move stuff around
If this war has shown anything, you have to be able to use drone, all forms of infintry and armor/artillery and if you want to own the skies you must be able to defeat the ever evolving air defense.
Also shows that moving to smaller size elements similar to rangers is the way of the future. Has to be fully integrated
I think we are well on our way there but we have to get better against the Chinese and cyber attacks
Also larger stealth loitering drones that can drop a bomb that the then opens to hundreds of smaller bombs that can penetrate from above on tanks all with their own thermal ability, guidance and small thrust ability. These will be used to take out formations
We already have pretty much real time battlefield oversight but within the decade that shot will be in extreme hd. We will have anti drone warfare, drones for every conceivable mission just like you said.
By 2050 I do believe we will have the immediate ability to shoot down any mussel in the world at any time so long as we know of the hotspot 24 hours in advance to be able to move stuff around
If this war has shown anything, you have to be able to use drone, all forms of infintry and armor/artillery and if you want to own the skies you must be able to defeat the ever evolving air defense.
Also shows that moving to smaller size elements similar to rangers is the way of the future. Has to be fully integrated
I think we are well on our way there but we have to get better against the Chinese and cyber attacks
Posted on 1/19/23 at 10:53 pm to Chromdome35
Friend in AK who is a retired A-10 Squadron commander long ago said that drone swarms were the way to go when everyone was wanting BRRRRRT. A-10's work well when air defense systems have been neutralized, otherwise those are expensive one way missions, or so it seems to me. Swarms of small drones are much less expensive. Haven't we tried those out in Syria already?
Posted on 1/20/23 at 5:47 am to GOP_Tiger
Again, the countries that signed the Talinn Statement are all-in. Now, we have the Dutch expressing openness about sending F-16s to Ukraine. It's not going to happen anytime soon, but this statement is about shifting the window.
A couple of weeks ago, the foreign minister would have simply said that NATO has collectively decided that sending aircraft risked escalation. Now that the taboo on NATO-manufactured MBTs has been broken, it's time to start working on the next one.
LINK
A couple of weeks ago, the foreign minister would have simply said that NATO has collectively decided that sending aircraft risked escalation. Now that the taboo on NATO-manufactured MBTs has been broken, it's time to start working on the next one.
quote:
Minister Wopke Hoekstra of Foreign Affairs also announced in a debate yesterday that the cabinet will look into supplying F-16 fighter jets if the government in Kiev requests it. Hoekstra said that he would look at such a request with an 'open mind'.
LINK
Posted on 1/20/23 at 5:55 am to StormyMcMan
quote:
It appears that the armed forces of the Russian Federation have launched an offensive in the Zaporizhia direction.
This was also reported by Rogov, the head of the region.
LINK
Posted on 1/20/23 at 6:53 am to StormyMcMan
This seems too old in that Desert Camo isn't likely headed to Ukraine.
LINK
LINK
Posted on 1/20/23 at 7:18 am to RLDSC FAN
British Defence Intelligence
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 20 January 2023
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
On 27 December 2022, the Russian Unified State Register showed that the proxy paramilitary Wagner Group had formally registered as a legal entity. The group declared their core activity as 'management consultancy'; no mention was made of combat services.
It is not yet clear to what extent the 'PMC Wagner Centre' entity will be used to administer Wagner's paramilitary activity. Private Military Companies (PMCs) remain illegal in Russia, despite protracted discussion about reforming the law. Wagner's owner, Yevgeny Prigozhin, has likely partially funded the organisation via inflated government contracts awarded to his other companies.
The registration continues the remarkably rapid development of the traditionally opaque group's public profile. Prigozhin only admitted to founding Wagner in September 2022; in October 2022, it opened a glossy HQ in St Petersburg. Wagner almost certainly now commands up to 50,000 fighters in Ukraine and has become a key component of the Ukraine campaign. The registration likely aims to maximise Prigozhin's commercial gain and to further legitimise the increasingly high-profile organisation.
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 20 January 2023
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
On 27 December 2022, the Russian Unified State Register showed that the proxy paramilitary Wagner Group had formally registered as a legal entity. The group declared their core activity as 'management consultancy'; no mention was made of combat services.
It is not yet clear to what extent the 'PMC Wagner Centre' entity will be used to administer Wagner's paramilitary activity. Private Military Companies (PMCs) remain illegal in Russia, despite protracted discussion about reforming the law. Wagner's owner, Yevgeny Prigozhin, has likely partially funded the organisation via inflated government contracts awarded to his other companies.
The registration continues the remarkably rapid development of the traditionally opaque group's public profile. Prigozhin only admitted to founding Wagner in September 2022; in October 2022, it opened a glossy HQ in St Petersburg. Wagner almost certainly now commands up to 50,000 fighters in Ukraine and has become a key component of the Ukraine campaign. The registration likely aims to maximise Prigozhin's commercial gain and to further legitimise the increasingly high-profile organisation.
Posted on 1/20/23 at 7:52 am to cypher
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