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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 1/19/23 at 4:52 pm to GOP_Tiger
Posted on 1/19/23 at 4:52 pm to GOP_Tiger
The entirety of Europe has good reason, in truth, as Russian bad behavior really started with the US withdrawing from the ABM Treaty in 2002. Putin himself has said he saw this, and not NATO expansion, as the main threat, and started to act accordingly.
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Posted on 1/19/23 at 4:59 pm to Jim Rockford
quote:
The consensus was already that Ukraine would have to finish this before the shambling but massive Russian military wore them down. This incentivizes Russia to also try to strike decisively before Ukraine is fully armed. Both sides may be looking for a knockout punch in the coming months.
If Ukraine can’t drive Russia back beyond the pre-invasion line of demarcation by middle of 2024 then it never will. It has about 12-18 month window to achieve enough victories to allow it to have a peace favorable to it. Any longer than that and the Russia army will likely be too large to defeat no matter how incompetent it is and Ukraine will have to sue for peace on Russia’s terms.
Posted on 1/19/23 at 5:14 pm to WeeWee
Russias manpower will likely be huge by then but will they have any high tech munitions left? Will they have enough drivable tanks not needing parts/repairs?
War has been going on since 2014. Just ramped up big time sun February of 22.
I agree quicker they can push Russia back the better. Need more Kharkiv and Kherson type territory flips.
War has been going on since 2014. Just ramped up big time sun February of 22.
I agree quicker they can push Russia back the better. Need more Kharkiv and Kherson type territory flips.
Posted on 1/19/23 at 5:20 pm to tigeraddict
Here's the final list of this particular US package:
Posted on 1/19/23 at 5:26 pm to GOP_Tiger
We heard about most of this already, but another 350 Humvees? Wow. We're giving a total of another 586 vehicles.
When you look at everything that Ukraine is getting from us and from the rest of NATO, it's clear that you can see an invasion force that Russia will not be able to counter by dragging more T-62s out of storage and painting over the rust on them.
And a number of countries have yet to announce their final packages for Ramstein -- Norway, Germany, Italy, and France come to mind. So, there's more to come.
When you look at everything that Ukraine is getting from us and from the rest of NATO, it's clear that you can see an invasion force that Russia will not be able to counter by dragging more T-62s out of storage and painting over the rust on them.
And a number of countries have yet to announce their final packages for Ramstein -- Norway, Germany, Italy, and France come to mind. So, there's more to come.
Posted on 1/19/23 at 5:28 pm to WeeWee
I’m glad Poland is taking a lead in all of this but keep coming back to wondering why the 23 Mig-29s they still operate are off the table. If it’s just a matter of us sending used F-16s to replace them then this should have been done in the summer. Ukraine needs aircraft and Ukrainian pilots can jump in them and fly day one. Maybe I’m missing something here but this just seems so simple to do that it’s mind boggling why it hasn’t happened already. Even if we were ready to hand over f-16s they couldn’t operate from Ukraine’s airbases right now. This is the only solution unfortunately.
This post was edited on 1/19/23 at 5:33 pm
Posted on 1/19/23 at 5:47 pm to GOP_Tiger
The Dutch have been one of the closest allies albeit a tiny one. Dutch banks played a very large role in financing the American Revolution. The only Euro nation to side with Israel along with the USA during the Arab Oil Embargos. These also occurred before the 1970's but the USA was the swing producer and keep Dutch refineries with oil. It wasn't until US production declined that we felt the effect.
Posted on 1/19/23 at 5:59 pm to LSUPilot07
quote:
but keep coming back to wondering why the 23 Mig-29s they still operate are off the table
Think I read that the issue is number of qualified Ukrainian pilots. And that they didn’t want the plans yet as Russia could destroy them on the ground since no one to fly them yet.
Posted on 1/19/23 at 6:12 pm to tigeraddict
Russia has used cranes to put Patsir air defense systems on the top of buildings in Moscow. Here is one on the top of the Ministry of Defense.
Thinking they shot a HIMARS system on the second floor of a building makes more sense now. Crazy Ivan gonna crazy Ivan I guess. The ones they are using may have Chinese tires on them so they are not going anywhere anyway.
Imagine watching this get lifted up via a crane onto the top of a building.
Thinking they shot a HIMARS system on the second floor of a building makes more sense now. Crazy Ivan gonna crazy Ivan I guess. The ones they are using may have Chinese tires on them so they are not going anywhere anyway.
Imagine watching this get lifted up via a crane onto the top of a building.
Posted on 1/19/23 at 6:14 pm to tigeraddict
I’ve read that somewhere also but I’m not sure I believe e that. Normally you have 2-3 pilots to every aircraft (4-6 on 2 seaters). Not sure if that’s different in Ukraine but even with losses on the battlefield I just find it hard to believe they don’t have the pilots for 2 dozen fighters when they have said many times they have pilots waiting at the ready to go learn on the f-16 or f-18.
This post was edited on 1/19/23 at 6:17 pm
Posted on 1/19/23 at 6:17 pm to LSUPilot07
quote:
I’m glad Poland is taking a lead in all of this but keep coming back to wondering why the 23 Mig-29s they still operate are off the table.
I think it simply goes back to the idea of NATO acting in unison. So, Ukraine won't get any planes until NATO is collectively ready to give planes.
I don't think that will happen until the summer. Ukraine needs time to get roads ready this spring that can be "remote airstrips" and can handle F-16s.
But it's also just NATO working systematically. We initially gave ATGMs, then artillery, then air defense, and now tanks and heavy armor. Aircraft is next.
Posted on 1/19/23 at 6:23 pm to GOP_Tiger
Better be some well maintained roads. The f-16 isn’t like a C-130 where you can plant it in a hay field if you have to. If they wait until summer to agree to western fighters then that puts them at Christmas at the earliest in a crash course and more like spring 2024 before they are flying in Ukraine. That’s why any Soviet fighters left in friendly countries need to be making their way to Kyiv.
Posted on 1/19/23 at 6:37 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
Darth and El Segundo,
What did you name your tanks?
Back in my day, the practice of painting a name on the bore evacuator wasn’t as common as it’s been in the past 20 years. I did have one battalion commander later on who was a huge Jimmy Buffett fan and had a parrot stenciled on all vehicles. He went by the call sign “Parrot 6”.
Posted on 1/19/23 at 6:57 pm to tigeraddict
quote:
Russias manpower will likely be huge by then but will they have any high tech munitions left? Will they have enough drivable tanks not needing parts/repairs?
quote:
The Military Balance 2021 database says Russian storage facilities have around 10,200 tanks, including various T-72s, 3,000 T-80s, and 200 T-90s.
The database’s 2016 publication also indicates that Russia has roughly 2,800 Cold War legacy T-55s (the first tank type to feature a nuclear warfare protection system in the 1950s) in storage, as well as 2,500 T-62s and 2,000 T-64s.
This means that Russia may have around 17,300 tanks produced between the late 1950s and now.
It likely does – on paper.
LINK
Russia has lost 1630 MBTs during the first ten months of the war. That is an average of 160 tanks per month. It will not run out of MBTs for a long time. Now if Russia is able to fix and/or modernize those MBTs fast enough to keep up with the losses is another question entirely.
quote:
I agree quicker they can push Russia back the better. Need more Kharkiv and Kherson type territory flips.
Need ground firm enough to support tanks and armored vehicles to have another Kharkiv type territory flip. Since it is looking like it is going to be a milf winter and the ground is not going to freeze then we are looking at April or maybe even May before that becomes possible.
Posted on 1/19/23 at 6:58 pm to LSUPilot07
quote:
I’m glad Poland is taking a lead in all of this
The Poles are going to hand over their Leopards tomorrow. They will be replaced with Abrams. I suppose the Germans could sue..................
Posted on 1/19/23 at 7:04 pm to LSUPilot07
quote:
keep coming back to wondering why the 23 Mig-29s they still operate are off the table.
Per my sauce in the Ukrainian Air Force some of them (not all, just some) are needing new or rebuilt engines before are they are combat ready. He was just guessing but he believed that the others were still in Poland because of technical reasons. He said that a fighter that can't fly and change its operating base frequently is a magnet for a Russian cruise missile.
Posted on 1/19/23 at 7:09 pm to Obtuse1
Is that a Christmas tree on the Patsir? I don't think even the Russians would think that is camouflage.
Posted on 1/19/23 at 7:21 pm to Tigris
quote:LINK
Ukraine’s president said he wasn’t sure that Russia’s President Putin was still alive.
Speaking at Davos, Volodymyr Zelenskyy suggested Russia was altering media purporting to show Putin.
Zelenskyy was talking about the possibility of a peace deal, and said Putin appeared absent from decision-making.
Posted on 1/19/23 at 7:31 pm to Tigris
quote:
Is that a Christmas tree on the Patsir?
It is the tracking radar, the one on the roof is the updated S2 with a wedge-shaped radar the one I showed below it is an S1 version with the rectangular-shaped radar.
Posted on 1/19/23 at 7:45 pm to WeeWee
quote:
Since it is looking like it is going to be a milf winter
Pics of Ukrainian milfs?
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