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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Posted on 1/19/23 at 1:48 pm to
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8170 posts
Posted on 1/19/23 at 1:48 pm to
Long post from Igor Girkin

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1615859747772665856
quote:

Girkin threw another hissy fit today, a long read: claims Russia needs to build up several armies, mass retraining asap to avoid (almost) inevitable defeat. Does not expect Ukraine to start an advance until April, by which time the West will send even more weapons ??



Posted by doubleb
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2006
42643 posts
Posted on 1/19/23 at 1:49 pm to
Move our bases, troops and civilian employees to Poland or elsewhere and see if that impacts the German economy.
Posted by DabosDynasty
Member since Apr 2017
5180 posts
Posted on 1/19/23 at 2:13 pm to
quote:

exactly, same with hungry.....sorry but they should be kicked out of nato or we should leave along with the uk and sign individual agreements....well atleast threaten to until germany and others get in line.


While I see your point and, frankly, I do largely agree, that would be a win for Russia as it would inevitably fracture the bloc and lead to more influence by Russia in said broken off countries.

If Germany really is compromised and we take this path, who’s to say they don’t restart the energy trades - benefitting Russia, maybe even start supporting Russia with arms or needed materials and tech domestically in Russia in coordination with Hungary. We know France was cozy with the Russians as well.

Further down the line then we just end up back where we were with WWII and WWI, maybe more appropriately WWI with a divided continent with entangling alliances and WWIII.
Posted by DabosDynasty
Member since Apr 2017
5180 posts
Posted on 1/19/23 at 2:14 pm to
quote:

Move our bases, troops and civilian employees to Poland or elsewhere and see if that impacts the German economy.


100% agree we should do this
Posted by Lakeboy7
New Orleans
Member since Jul 2011
28324 posts
Posted on 1/19/23 at 2:23 pm to
quote:

Move our bases, troops and civilian employees to Poland or elsewhere and see if that impacts the German economy.



The Army is pretty much out. Air Force will take a little longer.

Poland is very pleased to have us there.
Posted by lsu777
Lake Charles
Member since Jan 2004
38069 posts
Posted on 1/19/23 at 2:30 pm to
quote:

While I see your point and, frankly, I do largely agree, that would be a win for Russia as it would inevitably fracture the bloc and lead to more influence by Russia in said broken off countries.

If Germany really is compromised and we take this path, who’s to say they don’t restart the energy trades - benefitting Russia, maybe even start supporting Russia with arms or needed materials and tech domestically in Russia in coordination with Hungary. We know France was cozy with the Russians as well.

Further down the line then we just end up back where we were with WWII and WWI, maybe more appropriately WWI with a divided continent with entangling alliances and WWIII.


well as weewee said, we cant leave nato as much as they piss me the frick off, so that option is out

even if we kicked germany and hungry out, they are both in the EU so wouldnt really hurt them from a economic standpoint so not a ton of consequences.

i get pissed and talk about the above but they just arent feasible and i get that.

i do think very simply we move our bases to poland

tell poland and any other country that we will replace any leopards and t-72 they send with the m1a2sepv3.

we should be fine with sending 50% of our sepv3 over the next 3 years overseas as we should be upgrading anyways to sepv4 and should be pursue the M1AX to make up 25% of the fleet by the end of the decade and look for the unmanned version to be in service by 2050.



but frick germany, i understand the whole east german bloc and them being sympathetic but frick that, they have been reunited for 30+ years and we are the ones that made that happen. frick the french and hungarians too.

outside of the above...we should start moving contracts with companies in those countries back to the US. Same with the ones in china.

we also have to ramp up our production capability across the board and make sure that we are not put in a position to not be able to fight due to needing parts that we can no longer get.
Posted by DabosDynasty
Member since Apr 2017
5180 posts
Posted on 1/19/23 at 2:39 pm to
We agree on every point above
Posted by ned nederlander
Member since Dec 2012
5910 posts
Posted on 1/19/23 at 3:20 pm to
quote:

If Germany really is compromised and we take this path, who’s to say they don’t restart the energy trades


That’s exactly why we blew up the pipeline to prevent German backsliding on energy imports.

(that’s a joke. hopefully it doesn’t stir up too much crazy)
Posted by WeeWee
Member since Aug 2012
45567 posts
Posted on 1/19/23 at 3:34 pm to
quote:

Move our bases, troops and civilian employees to Poland or elsewhere and see if that impacts the German economy.


That should be done for common sense reasons. Poland and the Baltic states are now the eastern flank of NATO not Germany. Our forces should be located in the country closest to the enemy. The fact that it would hurt Germany economically is just a bonus. Once the Aegis Ashore anti-ICBM system is completed and up and running in Poland there is no reason for us not to relocate aside from the cost of relocating.
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
20974 posts
Posted on 1/19/23 at 4:11 pm to
LINK

Joint Statement – The Tallinn Pledge
A joint statement by the defence ministers of Estonia, the United Kingdom, Poland, Latvia and Lithuania; and the representatives of Denmark, the Czech Republic, the Netherlands, and Slovakia.

quote:

We recognise that equipping Ukraine to push Russia out of its territory is as important as equipping them to defend what they already have. Together we will continue supporting Ukraine to move from resisting to expelling Russian forces from Ukrainian soil. By bringing together Allies and partners, we are ensuring the surge of global military support is as strategic and coordinated as possible. The new level of required combat power is only achieved by combinations of main battle tank squadrons, beneath air and missile defence, operating alongside divisional artillery groups, and further deep precision fires enabling targeting of Russian logistics and command nodes in occupied territory.

Therefore, we commit to collectively pursuing delivery of an unprecedented set of donations including main battle tanks, heavy artillery, air defence, ammunition, and infantry fighting vehicles to Ukraine’s defence. This substantial assistance to Ukraine comes from our own national stocks, and resources illustrating the mutual understanding of the severity of the situation and our commitment to urgently increase and accelerate support for Ukraine. Having made this “Tallinn Pledge”, we shall head to the Ukraine Defence Group meeting in Ramstein tomorrow 20 January and urge other Allies and partners to follow suit and contribute their own planned packages of support as soon as possible to ensure a Ukrainian battlefield victory in 2023.



There's more at the link, including details of the newly pledged support from each nation. It's very interesting that these nations decided to meet and plan together in advance of Ramstein, with the goal of persuading others to give generously.

This is serious stuff. It's a new level of commitment, and these countries are essentially "all-in" now. Several other NATO countries will likely sign this as well (maybe Norway, Sweden, and Finland).
This post was edited on 1/19/23 at 4:14 pm
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
15762 posts
Posted on 1/19/23 at 4:15 pm to
quote:

Germany needs to be threatened with being kicked out and be subjected to economic consequences.


There are economic advantages for being in NATO with the USA. There are special programs for members of NATO to invest in the USA originally designed so that they could afford to pay their fair share when NATO was formed and much of Europe was in shambles
Posted by GeauxxxTigers23
TeamBunt General Manager
Member since Apr 2013
62514 posts
Posted on 1/19/23 at 4:15 pm to
It’s crazy to me that the Baltics are so willing to give up their arms when their right on the border with Russia but the Germans can’t be bothered even thought they’ve got like a 3 country buffer zone between them and Russia. It should be the other way around.
Posted by TBoy
Kalamazoo
Member since Dec 2007
28587 posts
Posted on 1/19/23 at 4:17 pm to
quote:

A joint statement by the defence ministers of Estonia, the United Kingdom, Poland, Latvia and Lithuania; and the representatives of Denmark, the Czech Republic, the Netherlands, and Slovakia.

Most of these have lived under Russian rule before and know the stakes. Good for them.
Posted by Jim Rockford
Member since May 2011
105316 posts
Posted on 1/19/23 at 4:19 pm to
Germany is compromised AF. They're not even trying to hide it anymore.
Posted by TheGasMan
Member since Oct 2014
3485 posts
Posted on 1/19/23 at 4:26 pm to
Seems Germany is waiting on us to send over some Abrams first.

Couldn’t we send over a few token Abrams (10 maybe, understanding that won’t move the needle in terms of what they really need)? That way we could say “alright Germany, we’re in, you’re up next”.
Posted by AGGIES
Member since Jul 2021
12382 posts
Posted on 1/19/23 at 4:27 pm to
I don’t think it’s sympathetic, it’s that certain members of government could be compromised. Russian oligarchs have been buying influence for years. The UK had a large problem with it that they recently had to deal with.
Posted by Jim Rockford
Member since May 2011
105316 posts
Posted on 1/19/23 at 4:31 pm to
The consensus was already that Ukraine would have to finish this before the shambling but massive Russian military wore them down. This incentivizes Russia to also try to strike decisively before Ukraine is fully armed. Both sides may be looking for a knockout punch in the coming months.
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
20974 posts
Posted on 1/19/23 at 4:46 pm to
quote:

Most of these have lived under Russian rule before and know the stakes. Good for them.



The others have good reasons as well.

The UK has seen Russia violate its sovereignty and murder and poison people on British soil. And the Dutch had a jetliner full of their citizens blown out of the sky by Russia. Denmark is under threat from Russia in the Baltic Sea, and the Nord Stream 2 explosion was right next to a Danish island.
Posted by Tigris
Cloud Cuckoo Land
Member since Jul 2005
13136 posts
Posted on 1/19/23 at 4:48 pm to
quote:

It’s crazy to me that the Baltics are so willing to give up their arms when their right on the border with Russia but the Germans can’t be bothered


Because it's an existential matter for the Baltic states, and it's not for Germany. The weapons they donate will be used to weaken Russia, and the US will almost certainly replace them with better weapons.
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
20974 posts
Posted on 1/19/23 at 4:50 pm to
quote:

Couldn’t we send over a few token Abrams (10 maybe, understanding that won’t move the needle in terms of what they really need)? That way we could say “alright Germany, we’re in, you’re up next”.



We could. Or, we could call Germany's bluff, and just let them look like idiots while we send Ukraine stuff like Bradleys and Strykers that they can use right away.

But yeah, we should start now on training some Ukrainian mechanics how to service and repair Abrams tanks, so that we can deliver a bunch of those in April or May.
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