re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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Ain’t nobody got time for that. We need the cliffs to read while taking a morning glory.

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Cliff's Notes version... All of it pretty much covered already in the thread.

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I heard an interview with Patraeus from a couple weeks back and he said that he had been in Berlin and the Germans kept telling him.the same thing. "If the Americans would only send 5-10 Abrams we could follow through with the Leopards.

What the hell is wrong with these people? One sure result from WWII: it forever cut the balls off of the Germans and turned them into welchers.

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It's truly bizarre. Germany has actually provided a good bit more military aid to Ukraine than France has, but it doesn't get any of the credit, because they are always dragged kicking and screaming into each new kind of support.

But, right now, there's a game of chicken going on between Berlin and Washington. The US clearly organized the January 20 Ramstein conference to coordinate the deliveries of tanks and heavy armor, and it naturally wants Germany to take the lead on tanks, because so many NATO countries operate the Leopard 2, and getting 150 Leopards together for Ukraine is possible and would make a real impact.

I wonder if France or Italy end up embarrassing Germany further by sending Leclerc or Ariete tanks to Ukraine.

The crazy part of all this is that this war has caused so many in Europe to say "We Europeans need to built up our militaries so that we aren't so dependent on the US," and then Germany refuses to step up, and they end up confronting the fact that US leadership is just as essential as ever.

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Cliff's Notes version... All of it pretty much covered already in the thread.

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The thread does collect most of the news already.

Reporters from France24 go inside Bakhmut LINK

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Chinese have always been about what is the best advantage for themselves...

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China always plays the long game

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A weakening west is what they want the most to increase their sphere of influence,

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The "Special Military Operation" has unified and strengthened the west at a time it was declining.

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the west is "expending" their military in Ukraine

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With the exception of 155 tubes and rounds this really isnt happening.

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Ain’t nobody got time for that. We need the cliffs to read while taking a morning glory.

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SUMMARY – DAY 321
It has been 3,240 days since the occupation of Crimea on
February 27, 2014.
The big news is Soledar has not been captured by Russian
forces, and General of the Army Sergei Surovikin was, for
all intent and purposes, fired.
DAILY ASSESSMENT
We assess the following:
1. Our assessment of an ongoing power struggle within
the Russian Ministry of Defense and Army General
Sergey Surovikin running out of time to deliver results
was accurate, with Surovikin demoted and Chief of the
General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, Valery
Gerasimov, named the new Commander of the Joint
Group of Troops in the “special military operation”
zone.
2. We maintain the ongoing strife and power struggle in
the Kremlin and the Russian Ministry of Defense
between rival factions will not only continue but likely escalate
3. We assess ongoing information warfare between

Private Military Company (PMC) Wagner Group and
the Russian Ministry of Defense is a byproduct of the
strife within the Kremlin.
4. We maintain there is an elevated risk of punitive
missile and drone attacks on civilians and civilian
infrastructure.
5. We maintain Russia will not stop until the Ukrainian
electrical grid and natural gas network are
completely destroyed, or Russia’s supply of missiles
and drones is exhausted.
6. We maintain that the risk of a nuclear accident caused
by the deenergization of Ukrainian nuclear power
plants caused by Russian electrical infrastructure
destruction is possible.
7. We maintain that Russian forces led by PMC Wagner
Group have taken the initiative on the Soledar-
Bakhmut axis but remain largely defensive
throughout the rest of Ukraine.
8. We maintain that the Russian military within Ukraine
is combat ineffective and can only mount effective
defensive operations, despite the slow success on the
Soledar axis.
9. We maintain there will be a second wave of partial
mobilization in the Russian Federation in January or
February 2023.
10. We maintain that the threat of Russian forces in
Belarus crossing into Ukraine as part of a major
offensive operation is only a remote possibility.
11. This is our last entry of “we maintain that neither
belligerent will enter an operational pause over the
winter,
” as this assessment was accurate.

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SUMMARY – DAY 321
It has been 3,240 days since the occupation of Crimea on
February 27, 2014.
The big news is Soledar has not been captured by Russian
forces, and General of the Army Sergei Surovikin was, for
all intent and purposes, fired.

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the west is "expending" their military in Ukraine




With the exception of 155 tubes and rounds this really isnt happening.

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Yeah, exactly the opposite. The "West" is massively increasing military spending and flooding every weapons manufacturer with orders. Even Japan is building up.

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ex-NCO

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Unlikely. They dont have many.

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First and foremost before any large numbers of western tanks go to Ukraine NATO needs to gather every T-72 and T-64 left in those countries and make a deal to get them sent. They would still comprise the vast bulk of Ukrainian armor and they are already know how to work them and maintain them. This is of the utmost importance. Hopefully you can gather around 300 Soviet tanks which outfits about 4 armored brigades. Then you start talking about sending Leopards or whatever tank they decide but I can’t see more than 100-150 actually ever going to Ukraine. The game changer though would be scraping up 300 Soviet tanks and then getting Poland to send the 240 Leopards they have to Ukraine. You would have enough for 7 new armored brigades, 4 Soviet tank brigades and 3 western Leopard brigades. All this can be done just by giving Ukraine basically other countries scraps or excess tanks and we can replenish those countries with used M1A1s and M1A2s.

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I agree with your assessment that it would be best to send Russian models to Ukraine right now. They could use them immediately. It would take months of training tank crews and maintenance formations on using and maintaining of western tanks. Without properly trained crews and maint. personnel, you could have a million of the best tanks in the world and they'd do you not a bit of good.

The best plan would be to send T-72s to Ukraine now while sending new tank crews and maintenance personnel to Europe to learn how to use and maintain Leo IIs. If they started training today, they'd be ready to go by perhaps the coming fall.

Even upgraded T-62s are better than the Russian T-62s.