re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly issued secret and preemptive pardons to Russian convicts fighting with the Wagner Group in Ukraine, potentially further empowering Wagner to operate with impunity in the theater. Russian Human Rights Council member Eva Merkacheva told Russian outlet RIA Novosti on January 9 that prisoners recruited by Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner Group to fight in Ukraine receive pardons before they are released from penal colonies for deployment.

Preemptive presidential pardons are likely further driving Wagner Group recruitment within penal colonies and empowering Wagner Group fighters to operate with a large degree of impunity in Ukraine. The promise of a legal pardon for criminal activity likely incentivizes convicts to sign contracts with the Wagner Group, knowing that if they survive operations in Ukraine, they will be released back into Russian society following their deployment with clean records

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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reiterated that a renewed Russian offensive operation from Belarus remains highly unlikely. Zelensky stated during a coordination meeting on the security of Ukraine’s northwestern borders on January 11 that Ukraine does not see any inflections in Belarus "apart from strong statements."

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Key Takeaways

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced on January 11 that Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov will take over as theater commander as part of a major reshuffle of the Russian command structure for the war in Ukraine.

Gerasimov’s appointment is likely intended to support an intended decisive Russian military effort in 2023, likely in the form of resumed Russian offensive operations.

The elevation of Gerasimov and the Russian MoD over Surovikin, a favorite of Prigozhin and the siloviki faction, is additionally highly likely to have been in part a political decision to reassert the primacy of the Russian MoD in an internal Russian power struggle.

Gerasimov will likely preside over a disorganized command structure plagued by endemic, persistent, and self-reinforcing failures that he largely set into motion in his initial role before the invasion of Ukraine.

The Russian defense industrial base’s inability to address munitions shortages will likely hinder the ability of Russian forces to sustain offensive operations in eastern Ukraine in 2023.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reiterated that a renewed Russian offensive operation from Belarus remains highly unlikely.

Russian forces have not yet fully captured Soledar despite recent Russian advances, and the possible capture of Soledar is unlikely to enable Russian forces to capture Bakhmut.

Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly issued secret and preemptive pardons to Russian convicts fighting with the Wagner Group in Ukraine, potentially further empowering Wagner to operate with impunity in the theater.

Russian forces continued limited counterattacks near Svatove as Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations near Kreminna and struck rear areas in Luhansk Oblast.

Russian claims about Wagner Group and conventional Russian military formations’ operations in the Soledar area likely reflect competing claims over the responsibility for the most recent notable Russian tactical advances in Ukraine.

Russian forces conducted ground attacks across the Donetsk Oblast frontline.

Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces are withdrawing key assets and restructuring logistics networks in southern Ukraine due to Ukrainian strikes.

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced a plan to improve the Russian defense industrial base.

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Britain’s moves toward supplying Ukraine with battle tanks are a headache for Olaf Scholz — but it’s still unlikely that the German chancellor will overcome his reluctance to sending heavy German armor without taking his lead from Washington.

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At a regional election rally in Berlin on Monday, Scholz emphasized the importance of discussing arms with the U.S. president, saying that tank deliveries to Ukraine must be discussed “together with friends and allies and especially with our transatlantic partner, with the United States of America.”

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Talks between the U.S. and Ukrainians are continuing over providing American-made Abrams tanks, but there has been little progress as the Biden administration thinks a European-led solution is best.

The Defense Department has been hesitant to provide the Abrams to Ukraine due to significant maintenance and sustainment challenges. A tank division can guzzle up to 600,000 gallons of fuel a day, and few of the tanks’ technologies are approved for export.

“It’s constantly an item of discussion but not near a decision,” said one person familiar with internal deliberations who asked for anonymity.

“Certainly, we know that the Abrams tank in addition to being a gas guzzler is quite challenging to maintain,” Laura Cooper, deputy assistant secretary of defense for Russia, Ukraine and Eurasia told reporters at the Pentagon last week. “It’s about the right capability in multiple facets and maintenance and sustainment is one of them, and it’s an important one, especially when there’s alternate capabilities that, you know, might — might offer easier maintenance or sustainment.”

Ukrainian officials have suggested that the U.S. send just a handful of Abrams tanks – as few as five – in order to spur Europe to act, a second person familiar with the discussions between the U.S. and Ukraine said. Despite promising full transparency over where the tanks are deployed and how they’re used, the Pentagon has not signed off on the idea.

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Wow

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Crazy isn't it. I did some looking and that area is on the far southwest part of the city and based on Google maps isn't in the city proper. The white building I have circled (and can be seen in the sat images) in red is a school I think an elementary school and the industry I blocked off in red is the Knauf Gypsum company which is the other large industry there besides the salt mine.

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'Putin is crazy': China 'thinks Russia is going to fail in Ukraine and will emerge from the conflict a minor power'
* Several Chinese officials warned Beijing must not 'simply follow Russia' in blind support for the war in Ukraine in a rare rebuke of Putin's barbaric invasion
* Officials said they believe Russia will fail to win the war in Ukraine amid setbacks
* Comments mark significant turning point in supposedly amicable relations between Russia and China - a month after the countries vowed to deepen ties

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Over the last two days, heavy fighting has continued both around the town of Soledar, Donetsk Oblast, and on the approaches to Kremina, Luhansk Oblast. Since the start of January 2023, Russia has almost certainly allocated elements of the 76th Guards Air Landing Division of the VDV (airborne forces) to reinforce the Kremina front line after assessing the sector was significantly vulnerable. Until November 2022, Russia committed almost the whole of the deployable VDV as long-term, ground-holding troops along the front line in the Kherson area. Now redeployed to the Donbas and southern Ukraine, commanders are likely attempting to employ VDV more in line with their supposed doctrinal role as a relatively elite rapid reaction force.

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