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Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 1/13/23 at 10:27 am to cypher
Posted on 1/13/23 at 10:27 am to cypher
The source is suspect so keep that in mind viewing. That said given other reporting from this battle, this is plausible.
https://twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1613891264390250496
https://twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1613891264390250496
quote:
SOLEDAR /1330 UTC 13 JAN/ Wagner PMCs are reported to have expanded control over residential & industrial sections of the city. UKR forces have concentrated efforts to defend several key locations, notably the vicinity of the school, hospital and the access to mines 1 & 7.
1
Posted on 1/13/23 at 12:51 pm to Chromdome35
Bloomberg: Germany to give final decision on Leopard tank delivery to Ukraine next week
by The Kyiv Independent news desk
January 13, 2023 7:06 pm
Germany will likely finalize their decision on supplying Ukraine with Leopard main battle tanks in the next week, Bloomberg reported on Jan. 13, citing two unnamed officials familiar with the matter.
According to the officials, Berlin will decide ahead of the Ramstein defense summit on Jan. 20. The day before the gathering, German Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht will meet with U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin.
Lambrecht will send “a clear message” at the Rammstein meeting regarding the Leopards, the report reads.
by The Kyiv Independent news desk
January 13, 2023 7:06 pm
Germany will likely finalize their decision on supplying Ukraine with Leopard main battle tanks in the next week, Bloomberg reported on Jan. 13, citing two unnamed officials familiar with the matter.
According to the officials, Berlin will decide ahead of the Ramstein defense summit on Jan. 20. The day before the gathering, German Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht will meet with U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin.
Lambrecht will send “a clear message” at the Rammstein meeting regarding the Leopards, the report reads.
Posted on 1/13/23 at 1:36 pm to cypher
quote:
Lambrecht will send “a clear message” at the Rammstein meeting regarding the Leopards, the report reads.
This would be the first time a member of Scholz's SPD has been clear on any issue concerning Ukraine. Mendacity and equivocation is the norm under Scholz.
Lambrecht's reputation in Berlin is that of a career politician out of her depth and out of touch.
As Defense Minister she would be the one to meet with Austin, but will not stray from the SPD position. Does that mean Scholz has made an actual decision one way or another?
I doubt it. As I said, mendacity and equivocation has been the norm under Scholz and I don't see that changing.
Get ready for a long list of requirements from the NATO allies entailing many more discussion meetings.
Posted on 1/13/23 at 2:13 pm to Coeur du Tigre
quote:
As Defense Minister she would be the one to meet with Austin, but will not stray from the SPD position. Does that mean Scholz has made an actual decision one way or another?
They are going to give Leopards at Ramstein, and there is going to be a large group of other nations that give Leopards. Politically, Germany cannot turn down a request from Poland and Finland to give Leopards, and Germany cannot allow those countries to give without giving some of its own -- that would be humiliating.
Besides Germany, Finland, and Poland, there are 9 other allies who have already given Ukraine significant aid who also have Leopard 2 tanks that they could give: Canada, Denmark, the Netherlands, Sweden, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Turkey, and Greece.
I do not think that Turkey will give any, and Greece might be a tough sell, but I think that the others will, meaning that ten nations altogether will give Leopards to Ukraine.
Together, they should be able to put together 150-200 for Ukraine, enough to make a real difference. They won't all be the same model or have the same upgrades, but those differences aren't nearly as big of a logistical problem as dealing with Abrams, Leclerc, and Ariette tanks (Britain has already said that it's going to give a dozen or so Challenger 2 tanks).
Ukraine is really struggling with the incredibly complicated logistics of dealing with a ridiculous number of different weapons systems. When it comes to artillery, for example, Ukraine is already using 15 different systems and will add another when Sweden starts giving Archers (which they have already said that they will do).
For better or worse, the Leopard 2 is NATO's European MBT. Now that NATO has made the decision to provide MBTs to Ukraine, Germany has to coordinate the delivery of Leopards. Yes, Scholz has been dragged into this kicking and screaming, but there's no way out for him now.
Posted on 1/13/23 at 2:27 pm to Athanatos
quote:
How survivable is a blast from an opposing tank in a leopard2? Is it dramatically different than the T-64s?
Several factors, the size and quality of the round fired and where it hits. The Leopard is much advanced from a technology standpoint and how its plated. And German steel is better.
I'd rather ride in a Leopard than anything the Russians have.
Posted on 1/13/23 at 2:33 pm to Lakeboy7
quote:
I'd rather ride in a Leopard than anything the Russians have.
QA/QC is not something well practiced in any Russian manufacturing for chemical/refining process equipment they have made up for it by using twice the amount of steel in the past. Made in Russia other than matryoshka (nesting) dolls and Faberge Eggs is not something anyone wants to purchase and why Russian made value added products are not known outside of Russia. But then there is vodka.
Posted on 1/13/23 at 2:38 pm to GOP_Tiger
from twitter, probably needs confirmation...
Viktor Kovalenko
@MrKovalenko
#German defense minister Christine Lambrecht, 57, plans to resign, the German newspaper Bild reported. She got into hot water for her tasteless Christmas greeting to #Ukraine with celebratory fireworks. She also sabotaged weapon deliveries to #Ukraine.
Viktor Kovalenko
@MrKovalenko
#German defense minister Christine Lambrecht, 57, plans to resign, the German newspaper Bild reported. She got into hot water for her tasteless Christmas greeting to #Ukraine with celebratory fireworks. She also sabotaged weapon deliveries to #Ukraine.
This post was edited on 1/13/23 at 2:39 pm
Posted on 1/13/23 at 2:53 pm to cypher
It appears to be real. Apparently, the New Year's greeting fiasco was only the last straw. She had her son chauffeured in a military helicopter, which I think is still the bigger scandal. Her favorability rating is Germany is such that over 60% wanted her to resign.
Edit: Oh, and after months on the job, she confessed that she still didn't know the different ranks in the German military. Look, if you put me on the spot, I probably wouldn't get every rank order in the different branches of the US military correct, but that would definitely seem like something I should know if I were the freaking defense minister.
Edit: Oh, and after months on the job, she confessed that she still didn't know the different ranks in the German military. Look, if you put me on the spot, I probably wouldn't get every rank order in the different branches of the US military correct, but that would definitely seem like something I should know if I were the freaking defense minister.
This post was edited on 1/13/23 at 5:05 pm
Posted on 1/13/23 at 4:41 pm to GOP_Tiger
There's an article in today's WSJ with the subheading: Time could be on Russia’s side if the U.S. and its allies don’t adjust to a prolonged conflict
This article comes on the heels of an opinion piece in the Washington Post a couple of days ago from Condoleezza Rice and Robert Gates that argues: "Time is not on Ukraine’s side." and urges the US to speed up arms deliveries to Ukraine.
Pardon for this long post, but I want to explore the “big picture” argument for a bit.
When the war started, Professor Phillips O’Brien was one of the few military analysts who believed that Ukraine could win.
O’Brien is the author of How the War was Won, which I have not read, but which argues that the Allies did not win WWII on the basis of any superior officer skill, as the Axis had men such as Yamamoto and Rommel who were certainly not incompetent. Nor was any particular battle truly decisive.
No, O’Brien says that Allied victory in WWII was mostly inevitable once the US entered the war, because WWII was a war of attrition, and the US had the superior wealth and industrial base. After Pearl Harbor, we continued to lose for a while, because it took time to build new factories and design new weapons, but the final result was not really in doubt, and we would eventually have a stronger army than the Nazis and a stronger navy than the Japanese. The disparity in Europe became larger once Allied bombing runs were able to destroy German factories. In 1941, American fighter planes were clearly inferior to those of the Japanese, and that situation was completely reversed by 1945.
To apply those concepts to the present war, if only Russia and Ukraine were considered, then of course Russia would have a huge edge in a war of attrition, because it has a larger economy with a larger industrial base than Ukraine, and it has a tremendous advantage once one takes into consideration the fact that Russia has been able to destroy much of Ukraine’s manufacturing base and factories that would produce war materiel.
But the war was never just going to be about Russia and Ukraine. Phillips believed that Ukraine could win in a long war of attrition because it had enormous soft power in the form of allies whose collective wealth and manufacturing base is many times Russia’s.
For a minute, let’s ignore NATO’s larger powers (USA, Germany, France, Italy, Britain). With food and energy prices stabilized, the people of those nations are largely immune from direct effects of the war.
That is not the case for many of Russia's neighbors or near-neighbors in Eastern and Northern Europe. For the people of Norway, Finland, Sweden, Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Czechia, and Slovakia, the war in Ukraine is almost as existential as it is for Ukrainians. The citizens of those nations know that a Russian victory over Ukraine means that they could be next, they are willing to do what it takes to ensure Russia's defeat, and those countries have a collective GDP larger than Russia's.
That's why Poland, for example, is partnering with South Korea to not only buy tanks and attack aircraft, but to also establish factories on Polish soil to build more. In a long war of attrition, these close allies of Ukraine can outproduce Russia on their own.
But, of course, they are not on their own, because they are in a military alliance that guarantees their security, and their economies are closely intertwined with those of the bigger NATO nations (USA, Germany, France, Italy, Canada), and every one of those nations has a GDP larger than Russia's, and the USA's GDP is 14 times as large as Russia's.
And so, we come to the conclusion that NATO members who border Russia absolutely cannot allow Russia to win, and those nations have military, political, and economic influence over the big NATO powers, then the big NATO powers must devote the resources to win the war.
The French, British, and Italians have now realized this, and I generally think that Biden has as well. Only Scholz still sometimes seems to think that he can put his head in the sand and this will all go away.
This upcoming Ramstein conference is really the final decision. Once we have given Ukraine main battle tanks, then the war really does become something of the "proxy war" that critics have long called it. We will collectively have sunk such large costs into the war that we cannot afford to lose.
That is why I am confident that Ukraine will get American F-16s by the summer and why I remain confident that Ukraine will win, at least to the point of pushing Russia out of the territory it captured in 2022.
quote:
The war in Ukraine, it’s clear by now, won’t end soon. The bet in Moscow—and the fear in Kyiv—is that the West will lose stamina before Russia suffers a decisive defeat.
So far, Russia’s expectations of discord among Ukraine’s backers haven’t materialized. Europe has severed its dependence on Russian energy with limited pain and no political cataclysms. As all major Western economies grew in 2022 despite the disruptions, the consensus behind supplying weapons to Kyiv has only solidified.
Yet, with Russia announcing a mobilization of hundreds of thousands of soldiers in October and switching its economy to a war footing, time could be on Moscow’s side. So far, neither the U.S. nor Europe has made the adjustments, especially in military production, that are necessary for sustaining Ukraine in a war that could potentially drag on for several years.
This article comes on the heels of an opinion piece in the Washington Post a couple of days ago from Condoleezza Rice and Robert Gates that argues: "Time is not on Ukraine’s side." and urges the US to speed up arms deliveries to Ukraine.
Pardon for this long post, but I want to explore the “big picture” argument for a bit.
When the war started, Professor Phillips O’Brien was one of the few military analysts who believed that Ukraine could win.
O’Brien is the author of How the War was Won, which I have not read, but which argues that the Allies did not win WWII on the basis of any superior officer skill, as the Axis had men such as Yamamoto and Rommel who were certainly not incompetent. Nor was any particular battle truly decisive.
No, O’Brien says that Allied victory in WWII was mostly inevitable once the US entered the war, because WWII was a war of attrition, and the US had the superior wealth and industrial base. After Pearl Harbor, we continued to lose for a while, because it took time to build new factories and design new weapons, but the final result was not really in doubt, and we would eventually have a stronger army than the Nazis and a stronger navy than the Japanese. The disparity in Europe became larger once Allied bombing runs were able to destroy German factories. In 1941, American fighter planes were clearly inferior to those of the Japanese, and that situation was completely reversed by 1945.
To apply those concepts to the present war, if only Russia and Ukraine were considered, then of course Russia would have a huge edge in a war of attrition, because it has a larger economy with a larger industrial base than Ukraine, and it has a tremendous advantage once one takes into consideration the fact that Russia has been able to destroy much of Ukraine’s manufacturing base and factories that would produce war materiel.
But the war was never just going to be about Russia and Ukraine. Phillips believed that Ukraine could win in a long war of attrition because it had enormous soft power in the form of allies whose collective wealth and manufacturing base is many times Russia’s.
For a minute, let’s ignore NATO’s larger powers (USA, Germany, France, Italy, Britain). With food and energy prices stabilized, the people of those nations are largely immune from direct effects of the war.
That is not the case for many of Russia's neighbors or near-neighbors in Eastern and Northern Europe. For the people of Norway, Finland, Sweden, Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Czechia, and Slovakia, the war in Ukraine is almost as existential as it is for Ukrainians. The citizens of those nations know that a Russian victory over Ukraine means that they could be next, they are willing to do what it takes to ensure Russia's defeat, and those countries have a collective GDP larger than Russia's.
That's why Poland, for example, is partnering with South Korea to not only buy tanks and attack aircraft, but to also establish factories on Polish soil to build more. In a long war of attrition, these close allies of Ukraine can outproduce Russia on their own.
But, of course, they are not on their own, because they are in a military alliance that guarantees their security, and their economies are closely intertwined with those of the bigger NATO nations (USA, Germany, France, Italy, Canada), and every one of those nations has a GDP larger than Russia's, and the USA's GDP is 14 times as large as Russia's.
And so, we come to the conclusion that NATO members who border Russia absolutely cannot allow Russia to win, and those nations have military, political, and economic influence over the big NATO powers, then the big NATO powers must devote the resources to win the war.
The French, British, and Italians have now realized this, and I generally think that Biden has as well. Only Scholz still sometimes seems to think that he can put his head in the sand and this will all go away.
This upcoming Ramstein conference is really the final decision. Once we have given Ukraine main battle tanks, then the war really does become something of the "proxy war" that critics have long called it. We will collectively have sunk such large costs into the war that we cannot afford to lose.
That is why I am confident that Ukraine will get American F-16s by the summer and why I remain confident that Ukraine will win, at least to the point of pushing Russia out of the territory it captured in 2022.
Posted on 1/13/23 at 4:53 pm to cypher
quote:
#German defense minister Christine Lambrecht, 57
quote:
She also sabotaged weapon deliveries to #Ukraine.
Well well well. This is big. Jan 20th is looming large.
Posted on 1/13/23 at 8:17 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
This article comes on the heels of an opinion piece in the Washington Post a couple of days ago from Condoleezza Rice and Robert Gates that argues: "Time is not on Ukraine’s side." and urges the US to speed up arms deliveries to Ukraine.
I have been saying for months that Ukraine has time to defeat Russia, but in the long run time is not on its side. Ukraine has to defeat Russia before 2024. Ukraine can’t risk the war becoming an issue in the US Presidential election. Even more importantly Ukraine has its own presidential election on 3/31/24. Plus in another year Russia’s economy would have switched over to a war setting completely and Putin and his cronies would have stamped out any resistance to his war (if any should appear). That’s why I have been saying that the Biden administration and Germany and France have been half assing it when it comes to aid. Glad to see that “the experts” are coming around to what I have been saying for months.
Posted on 1/13/23 at 9:19 pm to cypher
quote:
#German defense minister Christine Lambrecht, 57, plans to resign, the German newspaper Bild reported. She got into hot water for her tasteless Christmas greeting to #Ukraine with celebratory fireworks. She also sabotaged weapon deliveries to #Ukraine.
My sauce(s) have been telling me for months and I have been passing on the message that Germany was slow walking deliveries. Did you people want to believe me? No y’all just wanted to point out the fact that Germany gave Ukraine Gepards and downvote my posts. The Gepards have been damn effective but the only reason they got delivered to Ukraine was because Germany considered them to be obsolete. I’m glad German defense minister is resigning and hopefully it’s a signal that Germany is going to get fully on board.
Posted on 1/13/23 at 9:43 pm to Lakeboy7
isw update
quote:
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced on January 13 that Russian forces seized Soledar, Donetsk Oblast, on the evening of January 12. The Russian MoD claimed that Russian forces can now form a “cauldron” around Bakhmut and threaten Ukrainian supply lines running southwest of Soledar that support Ukrainian troops in the city.[1] The Russian MoD notably praised assault and army aviation, missile and artillery troops, and Russian airborne forces for seizing Soledar, without acknowledging Wagner Group’s participation in the fighting for the city
quote:
The announcement sparked a significant backlash within the Russian information space due to the Russian MoD’s failure to acknowledge the Wagner Group's participation in the capture of Soledar. The Russian MoD issued a follow-up announcement six hours later recognizing Wagner volunteers and assault detachments as participants in the Battle for Soledar and noting that the Russian MoD received numerous inquiries regarding its original commemoration of select Russian forces.[4] The Russian MoD attempted to justify their snub of Wagner by claiming that a Russian “heterogeneous grouping of troops” executed a “joint plan” in the Soledar direction and attributed the assault against residential areas to Wagner forces
Wagner financier Yevgeny Prigozhin staged conditions for such backlash by personally visiting Soledar days prior to its capture and taking his cadre of Wagner-affiliated milbloggers to commemorate Wagner forces’ daily advances on Russian social media platforms.[6] Prigozhin likely attempted to preempt the announcement on January 12 by accusing unnamed bureaucrats and government officials of “constantly trying to steal victory from [the] Wagner private military company” and belittling its merits
quote:
The Russian MoD’s announcement highlighted the existing conflict between the Wagner Group and the Russian MoD – a dynamic that ISW has previously observed and assessed. Several prominent milbloggers – including those affiliated with the Kremlin – stated that there is an ongoing conflict between the Russian MoD and Prigozhin behind closed doors and within the information space
Former Russian officer and prominent nationalist voice, Igor Girkin, condemned the “acute conflict” between traditional military command and unofficial forces (referring to Wagner) during a time of war and claimed that Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu and Chief of the Russian General Staff Valery Gerasimov seek to disband private military companies like Wagner and incorporate its elements into the MoD structure.
quote:
Prigozhin likely seeks to use the victory in Soledar as a bargaining tool to elevate his authority in Russia. The Russian MoD’s subsequent mention of Wagner forces in response to public outcry signals a significant victory for Prigozhin, solidifying him as a crucial actor in this war. Reznikov stated that Prigozhin needed a victory in Soledar to deliver proof to Putin that his forces are better than the conventional army.[13] Prigozhin also publicized a journalist’s question about his reported upcoming meeting with Putin to discuss victory in Soledar, singling out the question amidst an array of other similar questions on his response to the Russian MoD’s announcement.[14] Prigozhin told the journalist to read his original statement on Soledar instead of “doing nonsense,” despite his comment stating that questions on Russian MoD’s exclusion of Wagner will “need answers but not now.”
quote:
Putin may be taking measures to cultivate a cadre of milbloggers loyal to Putin and the Russian MoD to undermine Prigozhin’s effort to elevate himself. United Russia Party Central Executive Committee Head Alexander Sidyakin, United Russia State Duma parliamentarian Artyom Turovyi, and Donetsk People Republic Head and Putin ally Denis Pushilin met with several milbloggers on January 13.[16] These senior Putin allies presented a group of over 10 milbloggers – including Alexander Sladkov and a journalist who works for Wargonzo – an official certificate of thanks signed by Secretary of the General Council of the United Russia Party Andrey Turchak.
quote:
High-ranking Ukrainian officials continue to forecast that Ukrainian and Russian operations will likely intensify in the spring of 2023, while a Russian offensive from Belarus remains unlikely. Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov stated in a January 13 interview with the BBC that “spring is the best period to refresh [military] movement for all sides” and that Ukrainian officials understand that Russian forces will be ready to start a higher pace of operations in the spring and therefore Ukrainian forces need to be ready to do so as well.
Reznikov also stated that it “would take a lot of time” for Russian forces to prepare an offensive from Belarus and that the Russian military currently “has no resources” to support such an effort.
quote:
Disagreement over how to respond to Russians who have fled abroad risks dividing Russian officials and exposing the gap between the Kremlin and certain extreme nationalist actors. Chairman of the Russian State Duma Vyacheslav Volodin proposed on January 12 that Russia amend its criminal code to confiscate the property of Russians who fled the country.[27] Occupation Head of Crimea Sergey Aksyonov praised Volodin’s proposal to punish the “scoundrels” who “betrayed” Russia.[28] A prominent Russian milblogger amplified Volodin’s proposal and polled his subscribers, finding that the majority supported or strongly supported Volodin’s proposal.[29] Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov opposed Volodin’s proposal, however.[30] Peskov claimed that Russian citizens who left the country “are all our citizens, all equally, and could have different reasons for leaving” and stated that Russian authorities should create conditions to entice Russians abroad to return
quote:
Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly ordered Russian occupation authorities to deport Ukrainian children to Russia using medical schemes at a meeting with members of the Russian Presidential Council for Civil Society and Human Rights (HRC) on December 7. The Kremlin published a list of official orders on January 12 that Putin gave to HRC members on December 7. The document includes an order for Russian occupation officials to take unspecified measures to “meet healthcare system needs” in occupied Ukraine.[33] Zaporizhia Oblast Occupation Deputy Vladimir Rogov stated on January 12 that Putin personally ordered occupation authorities to administer preventative medical examinations to children in occupied Ukraine and that over 110,000 Ukrainian students have undergone medical examinations in occupied Zaporizhia, Kherson, Donetsk, and Luhansk oblasts
Posted on 1/13/23 at 9:43 pm to StormyMcMan
quote:
Key Takeaways
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced on January 13 that Russian forces seized Soledar on the evening of January 12.
The MoD’s initial announcement (which did not mention the Wagner Group) sparked a significant backlash within the Russian information space, forcing the MoD to issue a second announcement crediting Wagner.
Prigozhin likely seeks to use the victory in Soledar as a bargaining tool to elevate his authority in Russia.
Putin may be taking measures to cultivate a cadre of milbloggers loyal to Putin and the Russian MoD to undermine Prigozhin’s effort to elevate himself.
High-ranking Ukrainian officials continue to forecast an intensification of Ukrainian and Russian operations in the spring of 2023 and that a Russian offensive from Belarus remains unlikely.
Russian officials’ responses to Russians who have fled abroad risks dividing the Kremlin and the ultra-nationalist pro-war community even further.
Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly ordered Russian occupation officials to deport Ukrainian children to Russia under medical relocation schemes.
Russian forces conducted limited counterattacks along the Svatove-Kreminna line while Ukrainian forces reportedly continued counteroffensive operations near Kreminna.
Russian forces continued offensive operations around Soledar, Bakhmut, and Avdiivka.
Ukrainian Intelligence reported that Russian forces seek to raise personnel numbers to two million by an unspecified date.
Ukrainian partisan attacks continue to divert Russian resources away from the frontline to rear areas in occupied territories.
Posted on 1/13/23 at 9:57 pm to WeeWee
quote:
My sauce(s) have been telling me for months and I have been passing on the message that Germany was slow walking deliveries.
Two things, Russia has infiltrated Germany rather easily, with inclusion of former East Germans in government. Second Germany seems to have been castrated post WWII.
Posted on 1/13/23 at 10:18 pm to GOP_Tiger
It’s now time to put up or shut up for everyone. This war is coming up on 1 year and Ukraine has proven they are willing and able to fight back against Russia. As long as they are under Putin they are a danger to everyone. He’s delusional and I don’t think he’s going to stop until he gets the old Soviet bloc countries back under his power which is never going to happen. All the Soviet tanks available should be sent with the promise that they will receive Abrams or another western tank in return for them. There is around 250 left in friendly countries. They need to be sent now so Ukraine can fight through the spring while other Ukrainian tankers are learning on the Leopards which will take time. They also need the 23 Mig-29s that Poland still has in operation. That should be an easy deal. Send a squadron of older f-16s that are being rotated out of device. Poland is also on the waiting list for f-35s I believe so they don’t need those Soviet aircraft with them going to an all western military.
Posted on 1/13/23 at 10:21 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Oh, and after months on the job, she confessed that she still didn't know the different ranks in the German military. Look, if you put me on the spot, I probably wouldn't get every rank order in the different branches of the US military correct, but that would definitely seem like something I should know if I were the freaking defense minister.
Attention Joe Biden--you have a quality candidate who is on the market to go along with the rest of your incredible hand picked appointees.
Posted on 1/13/23 at 10:33 pm to CitizenK
quote:
Two things, Russia has infiltrated Germany rather easily, with inclusion of former East Germans in government.
I don’t think it has to do with including east Germans in the government. I think it has more to do with the fact that former Chancellor Schroder was a paid lobbyist for Russia. He is the one who started Germany on the path to becoming addicted to Russian gas. Even after he lost power, the bureaucrats he hired stayed in place and I’m sure that they got something under the table from Russia as well.
Posted on 1/14/23 at 1:37 am to WeeWee
In your estimate since you have a friend in the 93rd so he would know, how many tanks does Ukraine have ready for battle? I would hope even after the losses they have taken that they still have 1000-1500 ready to go. Something just feels like to me that a big tank battle is coming in the spring since at least 73 Easting. I don’t think air power is going to be as much of a factor because Ukraine’s pilots are already stretched thin and they don’t have the numbers in fighters or the long range missiles that Russian fighters have. Air defenses are building on both sides which is going to keep rotorcraft and ground attack planes down.
Posted on 1/14/23 at 6:25 am to RLDSC FAN
British Defence Intelligence
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 14 January 2023
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
On 11 January 2023, a group of at least 10 vessels of Russia's Black Sea Fleet (BSF) departed the Novorossiysk Naval Facility.
Given the type and number of vessels putting to sea at the same time, the activity is likely a fleet dispersal in response to a specific threat to Novorossiysk that Russia believes it has identified.
It is unlikely that the deployment signifies preparation for unusual maritime-launched cruise-missile strikes. It is highly unlikely that the fleet is preparing for amphibious assault operations. The BSF largely remains fixed by perceived threats from Ukraine, and continues to prioritise force protection over offensive or patrol operations.
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 14 January 2023
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
On 11 January 2023, a group of at least 10 vessels of Russia's Black Sea Fleet (BSF) departed the Novorossiysk Naval Facility.
Given the type and number of vessels putting to sea at the same time, the activity is likely a fleet dispersal in response to a specific threat to Novorossiysk that Russia believes it has identified.
It is unlikely that the deployment signifies preparation for unusual maritime-launched cruise-missile strikes. It is highly unlikely that the fleet is preparing for amphibious assault operations. The BSF largely remains fixed by perceived threats from Ukraine, and continues to prioritise force protection over offensive or patrol operations.
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