re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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Defeats the purpose of containment if you drag it out

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Russian talking head suggests blowing up Yellowstone to start a super-volcano and wipe us out. Olga seems sad because there are still bears there.

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Tells you all you need to know about the sincerity of that request.

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I keep saying this but I don’t understand why we and Poland can’t agree on the original deal to send them some of our older f-16s that are being rotated out of service and Poland sends Ukraine their 23 Mig-29s.

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Because Poland and the Biden administration can’t get along. It’s a classic case of government workers f**king up common sense solutions.

isw update

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ISW is publishing an abbreviated campaign update today, December 18. This report discusses recent efforts by Russian military leadership to address Russian failures in Ukraine, the planned December 19 meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, and continued efforts by Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin to legitimize the Wagner Group and bolster his own reputation.

Russian military leadership is engaged in a campaign to present itself as part of an effective wartime apparatus in an effort to address the public perception of Russian failures in Ukraine. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) posted footage on December 18 reportedly of Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu on a working trip to the Southern Military District (SMD) and inspecting the Russian force grouping in the combat zone in Ukraine.
...Shoigu’s visit to the SMD—with its focus on sustainment and medical support—is likely part of an effort to show that the military leadership is fixing the Russian military’s devastating failures in those areas that have been the subject of constant angry commentary by milbloggers and protests by soldiers and their families.

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Putin’s planned December 19 meeting with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko is likely part of the same effort to present proactivity as well as an effort to set information conditions for a new phase of the war. Commander of the Ukrainian Combined Forces Serhiy Nayev commented on the upcoming Putin-Lukashenko meeting and noted that it comes after Putin’s December 17 meeting with the Russian military command to discuss both immediate and mid-term goals for the war...The capacity of the Russian military, even reinforced by elements of the Belarusian armed forces, to prepare and conduct effective large-scale mechanized offensive operations in the next few months remains questionable, as other analysts have observed.[6] The manpower Russia is generating from mobilized reservists and from the annual fall conscription cycle will not be sufficiently trained to conduct rapid and effective mechanized maneuver this fall.

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Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin continued efforts to legitimize the Wagner Group as a parastatal armed force and increase his own power base by lobbying for increased state benefits for Wagner Group personnel who fought in Ukraine. Prigozhin complained on December 18 that the local St. Petersburg authorities refused to bury a Wagner Group fighter in burial grounds for participants of the “special operation” and instead intend to relegate private military company (PMC) fighters to a separate section, which Prigozhin called humiliating.....Prigozhin’s bid for increased recognition comes as reports of systematic executions within Wagner forces emerge, suggesting that Wagner leadership is willing to go to great lengths to preserve the Wagner Group’s image as a highly disciplined force.[13] Russian opposition outlet The Insider reported on December 16 that Wagner forces routinely execute deserters and those who refuse to fight, especially those recruited from penal colonies.[14] The Insider reported that Wagner has its own internal security forces to conduct the executions and that one commander—who commanded executed POW Yevgeny Nuzhin—personally witnessed several executions.[

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Key inflections in ongoing military operations on December 18:

Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) representative Andriy Yusov reported that the Russian military received a new batch of Iranian-made drones and continues to negotiate with Iran on the acquisition of ballistic missile systems.[17]

Ukrainian and Russian sources reported that positional fighting continued along the Svatove-Kremmina line.[18]

Ukrainian and Russian sources reported ongoing fighting in the outskirts of Bakhmut and to the northeast and south of the city.[19] The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that Russian forces captured Yakovlivka, Donetsk Oblast, northeast of Soledar.[20]

Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces dislodged Russian forces from long-held positions near Bakhmut.[21]

A Ukrainian official stated that Russian forces are redeploying units from the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast and that it is too early to tell whether Russian forces are withdrawing.[22] Russian and Ukrainian forces continued routine artillery and rocket strikes across the Dnipro River.[23]

The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces struck two Russian force concentrations and two ammunition depots in Zaporizhia Oblast on December 16, injuring 150 personnel and destroying 10 pieces of equipment.[24] Ukrainian Melitopol Mayor Ivan Fedorov stated that Russian forces are placing dragon’s teeth anti-tank defenses in Melitopol.[25]

Russian forces and occupation authorities continue to struggle to address a severe shortage of medical personnel and supplies.[26]

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Interesting article about Patriot missiles in Ukraine

LINK

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Press reports indicate that the United States is in the final stages of planning to send a Patriot battery to Ukraine. This would constitute both a strong statement of U.S. commitment to defend Ukraine and a modest improvement in Ukrainian air defense capability and capacity. At the same time, the move raises several questions, including the need for extensive training, the prospects for long-term sustainment of the unit, and the short- and long-term effects of the effort on U.S. air defense capacity and readiness. Furthermore, Patriot will not be a game changer, being limited by the area it can cover, the single unit being deployed, and the high cost of its interceptors.

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You can’t trust Russians. You could wipe your arse with any peace deal because that’s what it would be worth to them. They would just violate it as soon as they were able to resupply their forces. The west needs to ramp up supplies and their own production of munitions across the board and Ukraine needs to understand that all this help will eventually come at a cost but the west has committed itself now. They can’t take a defeat on the battlefield from Russia.

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Very interesting interview snippet with Igor Girkin (YouTube) where he basically says that the war is a disaster that will only lead to hardship and breakdown for Russia.

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And every other country involved as well.

Are countries still disassembling fighter jets for delivery to Ukraine to avoid the appearance of an arms shipment? Or are we past that pretense?

British Intelligence
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 19 December 2022
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE

Russian military proxy group Wagner continues to take a major role in attritional combat around the Donetsk Oblast town of Bakhmut. In recent months, it has developed offensive tactics to make use of the large number of poorly trained convicts it has recruited.

Individual fighters are likely issued a smart phone or tablet which shows the individual's designated axis of advance and assault objective superimposed on commercial satellite imagery. At platoon level and above, commanders likely remain in cover and give orders over radios, informed by video feeds from small uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs).

Individuals and sections are ordered to proceed on the preplanned route, often with fire-support, but less often alongside armoured vehicles. Wagner operatives who deviate from their designated assault routes without authorisation are likely being threatened with summary execution.

These brutal tactics aim to conserve Wagner's rare assets of experienced commanders and armoured vehicles, at the expense of the more readily available convict-recruits, which the organisation assesses as expendable.