re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

isw update

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Russian forces conducted their ninth large-scale missile campaign against critical Ukrainian energy infrastructure on December 16 and carried out one of the largest missile attacks on Kyiv to date. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Valery Zaluzhny stated that Ukrainian air defenses shot down 60 of 76 Russian missiles, of which 72 were cruise missiles of the Kh-101, Kalibr, and Kh-22 types, and four guided missiles of the Kh-59 and Kh-31P types...Russian forces are likely intensifying their strikes on Kyiv to stir up societal discontent in the capital, but these missile attacks are unlikely to break Ukrainian will.

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Russian strikes continue to pose a significant threat to Ukrainian civilians but are not improving the ability of Russian forces to conduct offensive operations in Ukraine.

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Russian National Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev made inflammatory but irrelevant comments in support of ongoing information operations that aim to weaken Western support for Ukraine. Medvedev published on December 16 a list of what he described as legitimate military targets, which included "the armed forces of other countries that have officially entered the war" in Ukraine.[7] Medvedev rhetorically questioned whether Western military aid to Ukraine means that NATO members have entered the war against Russia.

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Russian President Vladimir Putin will likely pressure Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko for Russian-Belarusian integration concessions at an upcoming December 19 meeting in Minsk—Putin’s first meeting with Lukashenko in Minsk since 2019.[

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Lukashenko is already setting information conditions to deflect Russian integration demands as he has done for decades.[14] Lukashenko stressed that "nobody but us is ruling Belarus," and that Belarus is ready to build relations with Russia but that their ties "should always proceed from the premise that we are a sovereign and independent state

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Putin’s visit to Minsk could indicate that Putin is trying to set conditions for the newly assessed most dangerous course of action (MDCOA) that ISW reported on December 15: a renewed offensive against Ukraine—possibly against northern Ukraine or Kyiv—in winter 2023.[16] Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin signed an unspecified document to further strengthen bilateral security ties—likely in the context of the Russian-Belarusian Union State—and increase Russian pressure on Belarus to further support the Russian invasion of Ukraine, in Minsk on December 3.

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Putin and Lukashenko’s meeting will—at a minimum—advance a separate Russian information operation that seeks to break Ukrainian will and Western willingness to support Ukraine, however.

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Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly ignored warnings about worst-case economic scenario assessments from senior Kremlin financial advisors prior to launching his full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Unnamed sources told the Financial Times (FT) that the head of the Russian Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina, and the head of Sberbank, German Gref, briefed a 39-page assessment to Putin outlining the long-term damage to the Russian economy if Russia recognized the independence of proxy republics in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts a month prior to the full-scale invasion

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Russia is continuing to endure some economic challenges as a direct result of Putin’s war in Ukraine. FT reported that Nabiullina was able to protect the Russian economy from the worst-case scenario by undertaking provisions such as regulation of the exchange control during the first day of the war, but some war costs are likely catching up to the Kremlin. Russia’s Central Bank announced on December 16 that mobilization had sparked increasing manpower shortages across several industries in Russia.[20] The Central Bank report added that Russia has limited possibilities to expand its production as a result of shortages in the state labor market and noted that "unemployment hit a historic low." The costs of Putin’s war, including the human and labor cost of his force generation efforts, will continue to have a long-term effect on Russia’s economy, as ISW has previously assessed.

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Key Takeaways

Russian forces conducted another set of large-scale missile strikes throughout Ukraine and one of the largest missile attacks against Kyiv to date.

Russian strikes continue to pose a significant threat to Ukrainian civilians despite generating no improvement in the Russian ability to conduct offensive operations.

Dmitry Medvedev made inflammatory but irrelevant comments in support of ongoing information operations that aim to weaken Western support for Ukraine.

Russian President Vladimir Putin will likely pressure Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko to support the Russian war in Ukraine further at a December 19 meeting in Minsk.

Lukashenko is already setting information conditions to deflect Russian integration demands.

Putin’s upcoming visit to Minsk could indicate that he is setting conditions for a new offensive from Belarusian territory.

Putin and Lukashenko’s meeting will likely advance a separate Russian information operation that seeks to break Ukrainian will and Western willingness to support Ukraine.

Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly ignored worst-case scenario assessments of potential damage to the Russian economy prior to launching his full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Russia is continuing to face economic challenges as a direct result of the war in Ukraine.

Russian forces conducted counterattacks in the Svatove and Kreminna areas.

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka-Donetsk City areas.

Russian forces continued to undertake defensive measures on the left (east) bank of the Dnipro River.

Russian officials will likely struggle to recruit additional contract servicemembers despite ongoing efforts to do so.

Russian occupation authorities continued seizing civilian infrastructure to treat wounded Russian servicemen and aid Russian forces operating in occupied territories.

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Right. I don't think that the cap, at the present time, is lowering Russian oil revenue by all that much. The point is that the system is working, and the West can now tighten up and lower the cap.

And any reduction in Russia's revenue has an impact.

British Defence Intelligence
UPDATE ON UKRAINE
17 December 2022
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE

In recent days, there has been an uptick in Russia's campaign of long-range strikes against Ukraine's critical national infrastructure.

The waves of strikes have largely consisted of air and maritime launched cruise missiles, but have almost certainly also included Iranian-provided uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs) being launched from Russia's Krasnodar region.

Previously these UAVs had been primarily launched from locations within occupied Crimea. The change of launch site is likely due to Russian concerns about the vulnerability of Crimea, while it is also convenient for resupply from the weapons' likely arrival point in Russia, at Astrakhan.
Lorem Ip

NY Times article: LINK

I can't read behind the paywall, but these are supposed quotes, and they are rather infuriating:

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Finally, in late April…Gen Valery Gerasimov, made secret plans to go himself.

American officials said they found out, but kept the information from the Ukrainians, worried they would strike. Killing General Gerasimov could sharply escalate the conflict.

The Ukrainians learned of [Gerasimov’s] plans anyway…After checking with the White House, senior American officials asked the Ukrainians to call off the attack… The message arrived too late. Ukrainian military officials told the Americans that they had already launched their attack.

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The Biden Administration has consistently tried to make Ukraine fight just exactly enough and in this precisely measured way, as though Putin has his finger lightly hovering over the red button. It's ridiculous. Either win the war, or don't fight it at all.

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NY Times article: LINK

I can't read behind the paywall, but these are supposed quotes, and they are rather infuriating:

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Way around the paywall

When you hit a paywall go to archive.ph and run the internet addie and more often than not you can read the entire article.

yeah I think there was some vain hope this could be a limited conflict still back in April/may.

The continued attacks on civilian infrastructure has communicated clearly to Washington this is a total war scenario.

Moscow is betting we won’t escalate because we didn’t before.

They’re incorrect. There was no escalation before because there was a perception for a possible diplomatic resolution.

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I don't think that the cap, at the present time, is lowering Russian oil revenue by all that much.

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Russia has a reported 9 billion USD budget surplus for January through November, but that is because Russia pays its major bills at the end of the year and has been deferring payments to December. Thanks to these fiscal policies it’s projected to finish the year with a 55 billion USD budget deficit. The cap is roughly $18 dollars per day lower than the Brent price for oil. That’s going to have an impact on their budget especially since Russia’s budget next year increases 30% due to extra defense spending.

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The point is that the system is working, and the West can now tighten up and lower the cap.

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Yes if the reports of Russian oil being shipped on western tankers is true and those companies are adhering to the cap then it is working. The west has successfully called Russia’s bluff of threatening to cut off oil supplies as a result of the price cap because even if they are only making $10-$30 per barrel Russia can’t afford to lose that revenue stream. Now it’s time to start tightening the lowering the cap to squeeze them. Force Putin to choose between paying Russia’s bills or letting his oligarch buddies of keep him in power skim off the money. One choice leads to pissed off populace once their pension checks bounce or their wages can’t keep up with inflation. The other choice leads to pissed off oligarchs who are losing money. Sooner or later one side will rebel against Putin. If for some reason they don’t then they deserve to suffer whatever hardships fall upon them.

No comrade this is all a Kansas City shuffle. They want us looking at Ukraine and hen really North Africa is the target with china and NK!



Btw who broke WeeWee,I’ve been out of the loop a week. Plot twist, WeeWee is OLM

Plot twist we’

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Btw who broke WeeWee,

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I am not broke. I have been shown the light. The wise people of the political board were right. Russia is fighting to save Christianity even though it is lead by someone who was raised as an atheist, worked for the KGB, and has only been seen attending religious services when it benefitted him politically.

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Plot twist, WeeWee is OLM

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F**k you. I am not an Ole Miss fan and have never and will never pretend to be. I do enjoy trolling people but I have standards.

If the current path of slowly opening the floodgates of sending modern equipment to Ukraine continues, 2023 will be a bad time to be a Russian soldier. Ukraine has a lot of work to do, but they’ve essentially killed or eliminated the entire active Russian military from the start of the war and are fighting the second (and maybe third) wave now.

My only fear is the Ukrainians give Russia enough time to somewhat regroup with what they have left and make the fight more difficult.