re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Why do you give a frick, this thread is here minding its own business and this is the 3rd time today you've posted in it about it being political.

You are exactly the same as the liberal sky screamers, two sides of the same coin; however you're too stupid to understand that, so you continue to come in and remind us of it.

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Thinking about the refinery, we probably won't know the cause of the explosion for years, but it's almost certainly related to the war in some fashion or other. I could have been the result of:...

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There have been a lot of major fires posted in Twitter/Telegram and I expect a lot of them just have a temporal correlation versus any actually war-based causation. If this fire had any war-related causation I expect it was the lack of parts for maintenance or maybe all the red hats and operators got swept up in the draft. Especially in areas where the mobilization was haphazard like Siberia, there have been reports of key personnel in various industries ending up on the front lines.

Morocco is sending T-72s to Ukraine but they will first go to the Czech Republic to get a modernization upgrade from the Czech company Excalibur Army.

I'm digging the narrative. You are turning me.

Dec 15th ISW Update

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Russia may be setting conditions to conduct a new offensive against Ukraine— possibly against Kyiv—in winter 2023. Such an attack is extraordinarily unlikely to succeed. A Russian attack from Belarus is not imminent at this time.

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Russian President Vladimir Putin’s objectives in Ukraine have not changed according to Ukrainian officials’ and ISW’s assessments based on Kremlin statements and actions. Putin continues to pursue maximalist goals in Ukraine using multiple mechanisms intended to compel Ukrainians to negotiate on Russia’s terms and likely make preemptive concessions highly favorable to Russia...Various Ukrainian defense officials continue to assess that Putin maintains maximalist goals and seeks to compel Ukraine to enter negotiations and/or accept a ceasefire to advance Russian objectives.

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Putin is using two simultaneous military efforts to pursue his ultimate objective of regaining control of Ukraine and securing major territorial concessions. Russia’s current offensive pushes in Donetsk Oblast, particularly around Bakhmut and in the Avdiivka-Donetsk City area and the ongoing campaign of massive missile strikes on critical Ukrainian infrastructure are intended to create realities on the ground that Russia will likely demand Ukraine recognize as the basis for negotiations.

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These two military efforts are failing to coerce Ukraine into negotiating or offering preemptive concessions, and Ukraine has retained the battlefield initiative following its two successive counteroffensive operations in Kharkiv and Kherson oblasts. Putin may therefore be setting conditions for a third, sequential military effort in the likely event that these two efforts fail to secure his objectives by preparing for a renewed offensive against Ukraine in the winter of 2023. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Valery Zaluzhny suggested that such an offensive could take place as early as January, in the worst-case scenario, and March, in the best case.[

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The winter 2023 timeframe suggested by Ukrainian officials for such a potential offensive is consistent with ISW’s long-standing assessment that the winter will facilitate Ukrainian and Russian offensive operations and is consistent with the current projected timeline for the completion of Russian force generation efforts.[9] Putin announced the beginning of mobilization in late September 2022.[10] Putin stated that Russia fielded 150,000 mobilized men of the initial 300,000 mobilized recruits in Ukraine on December 7—about two months after beginning mobilization—and that 150,000 mobilized men continue to train in Russia to prepare for deployment.[

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Russian forces may be setting conditions to attack from Belarus, though ISW continues to assess a Russian invasion from Belarus is not imminent at this time. The Ukrainian General Staff’s daily reports from December 1 to 15 uniformly state that Ukrainian officials have not detected Russian forces in Belarus forming strike groups necessary to attack northern Ukraine.

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The following indicators support a forecast cone that Russia may be setting conditions to attack Ukraine from Belarus in winter 2023. ISW will continue to monitor the situation and provide updated assessments.

Russia’s military presence in Belarus has been growing since fall 2022

Ukrainian officials claim that Russian forces in Belarus do not have specific plans to return to Russia after completing their training

Senior Ukrainian officials are increasingly warning that Russian forces may attempt to attack Kyiv.

Elements of the 1st Guards Tank Army—in principle the Russian military’s most elite heavy formation that could form the core of a strike force—are reportedly training in Belarus as of December 15

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It remains extraordinarily unlikely that Russian forces would be able to take Kyiv even if Russian forces again attack from Belarus again. Russian forces are extremely unlikely to be more successful at attacking northern Ukraine in the winter of 2023 than they were in February 2022. Russia’s conventional forces are badly degraded and lack the combat power that they had when Russia attempted (and failed) its full-throated effort to capture Kyiv in February 2022.

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Key Takeaways

Russia may be setting conditions to conduct a new offensive against Ukraine—possibly against Kyiv—in winter 2023. Such an attack is extraordinarily unlikely to succeed. A Russian attack from Belarus is not imminent at this time.

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s objectives in Ukraine have not changed.
Putin is using two simultaneous military efforts to pursue his objective of conquering Ukraine and securing major concessions.

Putin is likely setting conditions for a renewed offensive before spring of 2023 to coerce Ukraine into offering concessions.

Russian forces may be setting conditions to attack from Belarusian territory, although ISW continues to assess that the Belarusian military will not join the fighting in Ukraine.

Ukrainian forces reportedly continued counteroffensive operations in the direction of Kreminna and Svatove.

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka areas.

Russian forces continued defensive operations south of the Dnipro River in southern Ukraine.

The Russian officer corps continues to suffer heavy losses in Ukraine.

Ukrainian partisans conducted a sabotage attack on a power transformer substation in Berdyansk, Zaporizhia Oblast.

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The War Zone has 2 articles based on interview with a Ukrainian pilot.

Interesting that Ukrainian pilots have been to DC discussing their plight and lobbying for more munitions and aircraft.

Includes descriptions of trying to stop drones and dealing with Wagner piloted aircraft.

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...Fortunately for them, they now have Wagner squadrons for the stupid suicide missions. But still, it’s resources, it’s still airframes, it’s still money, and it’s still fricking lives. But they don’t care about that.”

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Part 1

Part 2

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Russia may be setting conditions to conduct a new offensive against Ukraine— possibly against Kyiv—in winter 2023. Such an attack is extraordinarily unlikely to succeed. A Russian attack from Belarus is not imminent at this time.

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Any thaw just for a day and Feb 2022 happens all over again. Lots of marshes/swamps at the border.

Is it street legal in Louisiana? I want one.

Kremlin Launches Another Missile Attack in a Quest to Destroy Ukraine’s Power Grid


Civilians take shelter inside a metro station during air raid alert in the centre of Kyiv on December 16, 2022, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Photo by AFP.

Kremlin bombers and warships on Friday, Dec. 16, launched yet another wave of massed long-range missile strikes at Ukrainian civilian targets, hitting homes and infrastructure in the capital Kyiv and in cities across the country.

 

Russian army commanders used precision-guided X-101 missiles fired from Tu-95 bombers flying above the Sea of Azov and Kinzhal missiles launched from frigates in the Black Sea, a statement from Ukraine’s Defense Ministry said.

 

Russian ground units based in occupied regions of Ukraine’s south also fired S-300 surface-to-surface missiles and Iran-manufactured Shahed kamikaze drones, according to news reports. More than 60 weapons were fired from various launch platforms, Mykolaiv regional defense head Valery Kim said in a statement.

 

The incoming wave of guided munitions, aimed primarily at Ukraine’s power grid and public heating infrastructure, set off air raid warning alarms across the country at 8 a.m. Utility operators blacked out some regions proactively, prior to missile detonations, in a bid to prevent power surges. Most missiles and drones had detonated or been intercepted by Ukrainian air defenses by 9:30 a.m.

The Kyiv Post