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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Posted on 12/15/22 at 9:43 am to
Posted by NPComb
Member since Jan 2019
28503 posts
Posted on 12/15/22 at 9:43 am to
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8172 posts
Posted on 12/15/22 at 9:49 am to
If Chicken wants to move this thread he will. Take your beef up with him.
Posted by LSUPilot07
Member since Feb 2022
8619 posts
Posted on 12/15/22 at 9:55 am to
Agreed and one day Ukraine very well may have f-16s but it won’t be anywhere in the near future as it’s not really even being considered right now so the Ukrainians have to worry about the here and now and get by with what they have instead of hoping for f-16s way down the line. Again, for f-16s to be supplied to Ukraine they would have to seriously overhaul some of their airfields and that’s a tough ask in wartime. It’s a shame the Gripen isn’t going to be considered because it is a rugged but very competent 4th gen fighter that would be easier to maintain than the f-16 (the Gripen’s engine can be changed with hand tools in an hour) is but they just don’t have the numbers of aircraft to be able to hand over a couple squadrons worth.
Posted by TBoy
Kalamazoo
Member since Dec 2007
28603 posts
Posted on 12/15/22 at 9:56 am to
quote:

Thoughts?

That refinery seems too remote to be directly related to the war. If the Russians aren't keeping up the proper maintenance, there are a lot of ordinary explanations for an explosion.
Posted by lsulaker
BR
Member since Jan 2009
1476 posts
Posted on 12/15/22 at 10:05 am to
I really appreciate that this is on the OT. I hope it doesnt move to the political board.
Posted by NPComb
Member since Jan 2019
28503 posts
Posted on 12/15/22 at 10:07 am to
quote:

Chicken wants to move this thread he will. Take your beef up with him.


A little hypocrisy never hurt anyone eh, komrade. I apologize for pointing it out.
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8172 posts
Posted on 12/15/22 at 10:16 am to
If you want to tell Chicken he's being hypocritical, knock yourself out.

The people posting in this thread don't control where it's located on the board.
Posted by Lakeboy7
New Orleans
Member since Jul 2011
28324 posts
Posted on 12/15/22 at 10:18 am to
quote:

NPComb


Tard, go to the tard area.
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
15774 posts
Posted on 12/15/22 at 10:24 am to
After several years of deferred maintenance, a friend was involved in a survey of Citgo, Lake Charles for upcoming maintenance. There was a propylene line held together by the epoxy paint. Pressure rating for propylene equipment is around 300 PSIG Maximum Allowable Working Pressure.

Who know what maintenance program that Rosneft had for that refinery?

Hydrogen will find a leak faster than anything else, if two flanges are not bolted together with the gasket sitting as needed, KABOOM is easy as pie
Posted by notiger1997
Metairie
Member since May 2009
61723 posts
Posted on 12/15/22 at 10:42 am to
How much of that Russian refinery is now offline?
Posted by Tigris
Cloud Cuckoo Land
Member since Jul 2005
13136 posts
Posted on 12/15/22 at 11:05 am to
quote:

That refinery seems too remote to be directly related to the war.


Maybe, but on the other hand that may be the message - nothing is too remote in Russia to be off limits. Russia would have to beef up security across the entire country. They probably already have to some extent. I've worked in plants. It's pretty easy to figure out how to do a lot of damage with an RPG from across the fence. There are probably a LOT of Russians with family in Ukraine, both working in the plants or living nearby. It could be a way for Ukraine to take out Russian infrastructure in retaliation for the drone and missile strikes.

It could also easily just be an accident. It would be interesting to see data on accident rates in Russia before and after the invasion.
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
20975 posts
Posted on 12/15/22 at 11:55 am to
quote:

How much of that Russian refinery is now offline?



The initial reports that I saw indicated that this plant was divided into two parts. The part where the explosion occurred was destroyed, and the other part sustained significant damage.

For their part, the Russians claim that they are still continuing to refine fuel there.
Posted by LSUCanFAN
In the past
Member since Jan 2009
28100 posts
Posted on 12/15/22 at 12:26 pm to
nothing is too remote in Russia to be off limits.
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
15774 posts
Posted on 12/15/22 at 3:30 pm to
quote:

The initial reports that I saw indicated that this plant was divided into two parts. The part where the explosion occurred was destroyed, and the other part sustained significant damage.


Per the Google Satellite View, the site is divided by a railyard with lots of loading racks for tank cars. "West" side is storage and loading racks. "East" side is several blocks of refining process units. Typically the crude unit(s) and Vacuum unit will be in one block. FCC in a separate block but nearby an alkylation unit. Another block for reforming and hydroprocessing with there reformer providing the hydrogen. This plant has a coker as well which likely a separate block. Finally a power plant (steam boilers) for the complex, but this seems to have a central large coal fired power plant for the refinery and other just a large manufacturing plants in a large plot along the river. The complex has chemical manufacturing too. Methanol, Amines, MTBE, etc...

there are several other large manufacturers to the north

LINK
This post was edited on 12/15/22 at 3:34 pm
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
15774 posts
Posted on 12/15/22 at 3:36 pm to
quote:

It could also easily just be an accident. It would be interesting to see data on accident rates in Russia before and after the invasion.


Per friends who worked there in the oilfields and building pipelines, accidents are a daily routine. Fatalities are more common than first aid cases in US industries.

Edit: After looking at results of the blast, I assume that this could well be a hydrogen compressor building as the source with the compressors on a mezzanine.
This post was edited on 12/15/22 at 5:58 pm
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
20975 posts
Posted on 12/15/22 at 5:41 pm to
There's lots of talk about Bakhmut, now that Russian troops seem to have entered some of the outer suburbs:

Much of the discussion about Bakhmut has focused on the limited strategic importance of the city, but you can read a contrarian view here. The author explains that Russia is still committed to a maximalist view of taking all of Donetsk Oblast, and how a capture of Bakhmut would relate to those plans.

Meanwhile, here's an article in the Kyiv Independent that explores the ways that Russian tactics have changed during the fight for Bakhmut.
Posted by jeffsdad
Member since Mar 2007
24906 posts
Posted on 12/15/22 at 5:49 pm to
Very good article.
Posted by WeeWee
Member since Aug 2012
45582 posts
Posted on 12/15/22 at 6:12 pm to
quote:

This war likely won’t be over in six months, and Ukraine will need to defend against Russian aggression well beyond that timeframe.



This war will be over in 6 months. Russia is pulling thousands of tanks out of storage and mobilizing millions of men. The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine was just a distraction. Mighty Russia will launch the real invasion of Ukraine in February 2023 and during this invasion powerful Belarus will be involved as well. Ukraine will not have enough western weapons to stop the masses of T55 and T62 tanks that will come charging out of Mother Russia and Belarus will bugger their rear. By February millions of Ukrainian citizens will be freezing to death and begging Russia to make peace. The Orthodox Cross will be raised on the Hagia Sophia by Easter, the world will be saved from liberalism and its obsession with transgenderism, and the new Russian Empire will dominate the globe for 10,000 years! All hail Vladimer the Conquerer!
Posted by WeeWee
Member since Aug 2012
45582 posts
Posted on 12/15/22 at 6:13 pm to
quote:

Russia also wants to save the world from globalists like obama and biden and want to save the western world by reinstalling Trump and making it ok to be Christian



Yes comrade! Finally someone else sees the bigger picture!
Posted by WeeWee
Member since Aug 2012
45582 posts
Posted on 12/15/22 at 6:17 pm to
quote:

The Ukrainians got pretty tore up during the offensive as well. They’re more than likely in no condition to conduct another major offensive.



The Ukrainians are getting more torn up fighting around Bakhmut than they did during the Kharkiv oblast offensive in September. The Russians are suffering a lot more but WW1 style trench warfare is costly for both.
























Damn it I broke character.
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