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Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 12/15/22 at 6:38 am to cypher
Posted on 12/15/22 at 6:38 am to cypher
Washington Post: US plans to send Ukraine smart-bomb kits.
U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration is considering providing Ukraine with advanced electronic equipment that turns unguided aerial munitions into “smart bombs” capable of hitting Russian military positions “with a high degree of accuracy,” WP reported, citing senior U.S. officials familiar with the matter.
U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration is considering providing Ukraine with advanced electronic equipment that turns unguided aerial munitions into “smart bombs” capable of hitting Russian military positions “with a high degree of accuracy,” WP reported, citing senior U.S. officials familiar with the matter.
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Posted on 12/15/22 at 6:47 am to cypher
Garth must have sung Callin' Baton Rouge in Siberia
This post was edited on 12/15/22 at 6:54 am
Posted on 12/15/22 at 6:57 am to Obtuse1
The blast wave at the plant — owned by Rosneft and run by close Vladimir Putin crony Igor Sechin — was so powerful it was felt 25 miles away in Irkutsk city.
The explosion, which took place at 5:52am local time, wrecked several buildings and caused damage away from the epicentre as it led to a blaze spreading to an area of around 27,000 square feet
Videos showed a bright flash as the facility exploded, followed by a raging fire at one of the largest refineries in Russia.
The explosion, which took place at 5:52am local time, wrecked several buildings and caused damage away from the epicentre as it led to a blaze spreading to an area of around 27,000 square feet
Videos showed a bright flash as the facility exploded, followed by a raging fire at one of the largest refineries in Russia.
This post was edited on 12/15/22 at 6:58 am
Posted on 12/15/22 at 7:03 am to jeffsdad
Since we talked about the Swiss refusal to allow this ammo to be sent to Ukraine:
quote:
A factory for the production of ammunition for Gepards is being built in Germany. Ukraine has already around 30 Gepards in active service. The production of medium-caliber ammunition should be launched in January, and in July the manufacturing company will be able to deliver the first batch of shells for the Gepards. Under favorable conditions, Ukraine can receive up to 300,000 ammunition.
Posted on 12/15/22 at 8:03 am to GOP_Tiger
I’m surprised at this point that western fighters have not been scheduled for transfer yet. If Ukraine really gets patriot missiles, then the US appears ready to trust them with advanced technology. The previous argument that it would take too long to train Ukrainian fighter pilots on western jets goes out the window now considering it takes 3-6 months to train operators for the Patriot missile system.
Plus, with both advanced AA weapons and advanced airport, the potential to tilt the balance in favor of the Ukrainians is greatly increased.
Plus, with both advanced AA weapons and advanced airport, the potential to tilt the balance in favor of the Ukrainians is greatly increased.
Posted on 12/15/22 at 8:03 am to GOP_Tiger
I don't have a NY Times subscription, so I can't read the article, but the headline is that the US is going to substantially increase our training program in Germany for Ukrainian soldiers.
LINK
Supposedly, we will start training a new battalion every month.
LINK
Supposedly, we will start training a new battalion every month.
Posted on 12/15/22 at 8:23 am to Athanatos
quote:
I’m surprised at this point that western fighters have not been scheduled for transfer yet. If Ukraine really gets patriot missiles, then the US appears ready to trust them with advanced technology.
Yes, that seems to be a signal that the dam is breaking, and more powerful and technically sophisticated weaponry is heading to Ukraine.
I just watched this interview with British Defense Minister Ben Wallace, and he said that, if Russia continues its war crimes of attacking Ukrainian civilians, Britain will be providing long-range weaponry to Ukraine.
The interviewer asks if that means Storm Shadow cruise missiles, and Wallace declines to say.
LINK
This is normally an air-launched missile, so I don't know if it could be jerry-rigged to be fitted onto Ukrainian planes (as HARM was done), but I would guess that the answer is yes.
Posted on 12/15/22 at 8:27 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Yes, that seems to be a signal that the dam is breaking, and more powerful and technically sophisticated weaponry is heading to Ukraine.
Yep. This is the final step in communication.
The patriot is a highly sophisticated defensive array.
Russia is being told the next leg will be highly sophisticated offensive arrays via the sending of the patriot system.
Posted on 12/15/22 at 8:29 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Under the expanded program, American trainers will instruct larger groups of Ukrainian soldiers in more advanced battlefield tactics, including “collective training,” like coordinating ground infantry troop maneuvers with artillery support.
quote:
Ukrainian officials have been wary of pulling too many troops off the front lines at any given time for specialized weapons training. But with winter slowing the tempo of fighting in many parts of the combat zone, officials said the coming months would provide a window.
This is why I don’t think we’ll see a significant winter offensive. Both sides are refitting and rearming. HIMARS and the precision guided bombs will be used to harass the Russians until the army is ready to attack again in the spring.
Posted on 12/15/22 at 8:31 am to jeffsdad
quote:
Videos showed a bright flash as the facility exploded, followed by a raging fire at one of the largest refineries in Russia.
It is the largest by throughput at 384,000 BPD. One of half dozen with over 300,000 BPD capacity, meaning Russia has ZERO world scale refineries.
Russia has never regained its refined product exports lost in 2020. Since most if not all refined products are transported via rail. The cost to make and export is higher than almost everywhere else. More than double the distance from ND to Houston, to get to any port.
This post was edited on 12/15/22 at 8:37 am
Posted on 12/15/22 at 8:37 am to Athanatos
quote:
surprised at this point that western fighters have not been scheduled for transfer yet. If Ukraine really gets patriot missiles, then the US appears ready to trust them with advanced technology. The previous argument that it would take too long to train Ukrainian fighter pilots on western jets goes out the window now considering it takes 3-6 months to train operators for the Patriot missile system.
I still think there’s a lot of concern about western jets being used to strike inside Russian territory. On top of that the Europeans have become hesitant about giving away their advanced systems in any real numbers because they just don’t have enough of them. They are starting to realize that they have been woefully undermanned and under armed for generations. Most European nations simply can’t afford to give away what few jets they have. The only real option is American F-16s and I’ve yet to see anything the administration has said to suggest that’s going to happen anytime soon.
Posted on 12/15/22 at 8:39 am to GeauxxxTigers23
You could certainly be right.
If I'm Ukraine, I don't want to give Russia any respite and allow them to reconstitute into a functioning army.
If I'm Ukraine, I don't want to give Russia any respite and allow them to reconstitute into a functioning army.
Posted on 12/15/22 at 8:41 am to Chromdome35
quote:
If I'm Ukraine, I don't want to give Russia any respite and allow them to reconstitute into a functioning army.
The Ukrainians got pretty tore up during the offensive as well. They’re more than likely in no condition to conduct another major offensive.
Posted on 12/15/22 at 8:53 am to Athanatos
Western fighters won’t matter right now. It will take at a minimum 6 months to train Ukrainian pilots on the f-16 which would be the obvious choice with it’s large numbers and neighboring countries flying them as well so parts would never be an issue but the nose gear on the f-16 is far too fragile to land on less than great runways like the Ukrainians have to do. They would need to upgrade their air bases but that presents a big target to the Russians. Unless they decide on the Swedish Gripen, which they should do but I seriously doubt will, then for the most part Ukraine will have to fight this war with their Mig-29s and Su-27s. Poland could really help the Ukrainians by sending their last 23 Mig-29s over to the Ukrainians. Poland is going towards an all western military anyway but I’m guessing they won’t do that until we send them f-16s to replace the Mig-29s. Those 23 along with the 11 coming from Slovakia would give them 2 new fighter squadrons.
This post was edited on 12/15/22 at 9:43 am
Posted on 12/15/22 at 8:55 am to CitizenK
Thinking about the refinery, we probably won't know the cause of the explosion for years, but it's almost certainly related to the war in some fashion or other. I could have been the result of:
1) Ukrainian SOF. This is the obvious first thought, though I think it less likely.
2) A lack of available parts and machine tools, due to sanctions. Without critical parts available, plant operators may have jerry-rigged things in an unsafe way, simply to keep the refinery chugging along.
3) Mobilization. Key personnel were supposed to be exempt from the mobilization decrees, but we know of many instances that didn't happen. If a number of safety inspectors at the plant have been sent to Bakhmut, then that could be a proximate cause of the disaster.
Thoughts?
1) Ukrainian SOF. This is the obvious first thought, though I think it less likely.
2) A lack of available parts and machine tools, due to sanctions. Without critical parts available, plant operators may have jerry-rigged things in an unsafe way, simply to keep the refinery chugging along.
3) Mobilization. Key personnel were supposed to be exempt from the mobilization decrees, but we know of many instances that didn't happen. If a number of safety inspectors at the plant have been sent to Bakhmut, then that could be a proximate cause of the disaster.
Thoughts?
Posted on 12/15/22 at 8:59 am to LSUPilot07
quote:
Western fighters won’t matter right now. It will take at a minimum 6 months to train Ukrainian pilots on the f-16 which would be the obvious choice with it’s large numbers and neighboring countries flying them as well so parts would never be an issue but the nose gear on the f-16 is far too fragile to land on less than great runways like the Ukrainians have to do. They would need to upgrade their air bases but that presents a big target to the Russians. Unless they decide on the Swedish Gripen, which they should do but I seriously doubt will, then for the most part Ukraine will have to fight this war with their Mig-29s and Su-27s. Poland could really help the Ukrainians by sending their last 23 Mig-29s over to the Ukrainians. Poland is going towards an all western military anyway but I’m guessing they won’t do that until we send them f-16s to replace the Mig-29s.
Sweden just reaffirmed on the 12th that it is not sending Gripens to Ukraine: LINK
Slovakia also said on the 12th that it is preparing to send its eleven MiG-29s to Ukraine: LINK
Posted on 12/15/22 at 9:13 am to LSUPilot07
This war likely won’t be over in six months, and Ukraine will need to defend against Russian aggression well beyond that timeframe.
Posted on 12/15/22 at 9:19 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Thoughts?
None of the three.
Maintenance issues is most likely and didn't happen in just a few months since any mobilization. Without a good export market, Russian refineries likely not profitable since MAYBE 2019. No money means fewer maintenance issues addressed.
Purely a guess, most likely culprit is a hydrogen line from a reformer to hydroprocessing unit. A fine example of the hydrogen economy.
Posted on 12/15/22 at 9:38 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
we will start training a new battalion every month.
Already happening in Poland. Also a short course for JOs and NCOs.
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