re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

I think Russia tries to restablish initiative somewhere. They may take those forces and try to push a different front. Any other decision ends in a slow loss.

Fixed defenses are a monument to man’s stupidity- only purpose is to slow an opponents offense if you can open an attack that’s faster elsewhere

Desert and marsh terrain not inhabited.

Yea if melitopol falls it does seem like Ukraine would be able to largely reset the lines back to 2014 and isolate crimea.

Given that, Russia has to turn any approach on Melitopol into an absolute meat grinder no? Kherson seems rightly described as a siege concluded by a strategic retreat. Hard to believe Russia would concede Melitopol in a similar fashion. if Russia has anything left I think they have to put it on the line to hold Melitopol.

ISW Update

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The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) escalated claims of Russian territorial gains in Donetsk Oblast on November 13 and 14, likely to emphasize that Russian forces are intensifying operations in Donetsk Oblast following withdrawal from the right bank of Kherson Oblast

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Russian milbloggers seized on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s November 14 visit to Kherson City to criticize Russian military capacity more substantively than in previous days during the Russian withdrawal from the right bank of Kherson Oblast

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Wagner Group financier Yevgeniy Prigozhin continues to establish himself as a highly independent, Stalinist warlord in Russia, becoming a prominent figure within the nationalist pro-war community

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Prigozhin is taking actions that will resonate with a constituency interested in the ideology of Russia’s national superiority, Soviet brutalist strength, and distasteful of the Kremlin’s corruption, which Russian President Vladimir Putin has used as a political force throughout his reign.

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Prigozhin is steadily using his participation in the Russian invasion of Ukraine to consolidate his influence in Russia.

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Key Takeaways

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) escalated claims of Russian territorial gains in Donetsk Oblast on November 13 and 14, likely to emphasize that Russian forces are intensifying operations in Donetsk Oblast following their withdrawal from the right bank of Kherson Oblast.

Russian milbloggers seized on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s November 14 visit to Kherson City to criticize Russian military capacity more substantively than in previous days during the Russian withdrawal from the right bank of Kherson Oblast.

Wagner Group financier Yevgeniy Prigozhin continues to establish himself as a highly independent, Stalinist warlord in Russia, becoming an even more prominent figure within the nationalist pro-war community.

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on the Svatove-Kreminna line and clashed with Russian troops near Bilohorivka.

Russian forces unsuccessfully attempted to regain positions in northeastern Kharkiv Oblast.

Russian forces intensified offensive operations in Donetsk Oblast and claimed to have gained territory around Bakhmut and southwest of Donetsk City.

Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian troops launched an unsuccessful raid onto the Kinburn Spit.

Russian President Vladimir Putin signed additional decrees refining mobilization protocols and expanding military recruitment provisions, likely in an ongoing effort to reinforce Russian war efforts.

Russian occupation officials continued to drive the “evacuation” and forced relocation of residents in occupied territories and took efforts to move occupation elements farther from the Dnipro River.

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I find the mobilization part of this whole thing interesting so here is the more in depth part of that

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Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts (Russian objective: Expand combat power without conducting general mobilization)

Russian President Vladimir Putin signed additional decrees refining mobilization protocols and expanding military recruitment provisions, likely in an ongoing effort to reinforce Russian war efforts. Putin decreed that foreign citizens can serve in the Russian armed forces on November 14.[56] The decree also allows Russian officials to conscript Russian dual-nationals or foreigners with residence permits.[57] Such provisions will allow the Kremlin to recruit forces internationally and among immigrant populations in Russia. Recruitment of foreigners can also ignite further ethno-religious conflicts that have been plaguing Russian ad hoc forces, however.

Putin is establishing enforcement measures for censorship of foreigners with acquired Russian citizenship, which would allow military recruitment officials to further carry out covert mobilization and respond to criticism of the failures of the Russian military campaign in Ukraine. Putin proposed an amendment that would deprive people of their acquired Russian citizenship if they spread “fakes about the Russian Armed Forces” or affiliate with “extremist organizations” that advocate against Russian territorial integrity. The Russian State Duma is also considering a law that would deprive residents of acquired Russian citizenship if they surrender or evade military service.[58] Both proposals excluded Russian-born citizens and are likely attempts to silence immigrant groups and ethnically based civil society in Russia. The amendment would task the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) with prosecuting individuals with such views, and Putin may be attempting to set up an internal repression apparatus. ISW previously assessed that Putin has never built an internal repression apparatus like the Soviets, instead relying on control over the information space.[59]

Putin may also be refining conditions for future force-generation efforts, such as a new wave of mobilization. Putin decreed that individuals with drug possession and consumption criminal charges will not be able to sign a contract with the Russian Armed Forces, likely in an effort to appear to address instances of substance abuse among new recruits and mobilized men.[60] It is unclear if Russian officials will actually follow Putin’s order prohibiting individuals with drug-related charges from serving, but the Wagner Group private military company (PMC) will likely continue to recruit these individuals regardless of Putin’s order regarding the conventional Russian military.

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Double members of US KIA is within sight

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I wasn’t alive during Vietnam but this seems pretty close. I think it’s a pretty safe bet that Russia has had more KIA in Ukraine than the USA lost in Vietnam, and for what?

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Plus it is 10 years vs less than 10 months.

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Damn, there goes Brittney Griners chance to finally see some action.

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It's OK, apparently the Wagner Group is taking the druggies so she still has a chance.

British Defence Intelligence
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 15 November 2022
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE

By 12 November 2022, the Russian military had almost certainly completed the withdrawal of forces which had been holding territory west of the Dnipro River.

With the abandonment of Kherson city, Russia has made the Azov Sea port town of Henichesk a‘temporary capital' of the occupied region. Russia will likely also redeploy military command units to the Henichesk area.

The choice of this area as a command node hints at the priorities and concerns of Russian commanders as they consolidate their defences in southern Ukraine. It is well positioned to coordinate action against potential Ukrainian threats from both Kherson city in the west, or via Melitopol to the north-east, and to receive reinforcements from Crimea. Above all, it is currently out of range of Ukrainian artillery systems which have inflicted heavy damage on Russian field command posts.