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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 11/12/22 at 9:12 am to REG861
Posted on 11/12/22 at 9:12 am to REG861
quote:
Big if true. The Russians would probably insist on keeping some of the Donetsk areas.id be very curious to see if the “anti war libertarians” ITT would green light this proposal or not.
If Ukraine is good with it, I'm good with it. With that said, even if it's completely back-channel and not publicly released, ideally, Russia pays some level of damage reparations.
1
Posted on 11/12/22 at 9:23 am to Joshjrn
quote:
If Ukraine is good with it, I'm good with it. With that said, even if it's completely back-channel and not publicly released, ideally, Russia pays some level of damage reparations.
I just don't see why Ukraine would willingly give up any of Donetsk, Luhansk or Crimea without some massive, massive concessions the other way. That's a gigantic ask, and would be the first time in a long time where country would give up territory willingly due to war.
Posted on 11/12/22 at 9:29 am to crazy4lsu
quote:
without some massive, massive concessions the other way.
And assumption that Russia actually follows through
Personally, I think Ukraine would go for it (assuming Russia abided) just because their economy is taking a massive hit and their losses probably aren't all that different from Russia. Given ukraines population is much smaller than Russias that is a much bigger long term hit. So I could see Ukraine being willing to lose Crimera for stability
Not saying they will, but just saying it isn't beyond possibility
Posted on 11/12/22 at 9:30 am to crazy4lsu
quote:
I just don't see why Ukraine would willingly give up any of Donetsk, Luhansk or Crimea without some massive, massive concessions the other way. That's a gigantic ask, and would be the first time in a long time where country would give up territory willingly due to war.
Even if they won't admit it, I think everyone involved understands that Crimea is a Rubicon for the Putin administration. If Russia cedes everything taken other than Crimea (which I believe is where that would put us, unless I'm misreading it), I think Nato is looking at Ukraine and saying "look, the amount of support that would be required to retake everything, including Crimea, is simply more than we are willing to commit to in the midst of a global recession. Take your win, take your lap, join Nato from a position of strength, and worry about Crimea in the future."
Posted on 11/12/22 at 9:34 am to Joshjrn
quote:
Even if they won't admit it, I think everyone involved understands that Crimea is a Rubicon for the Putin administration. If Russia cedes everything taken other than Crimea (which I believe is where that would put us, unless I'm misreading it), I think Nato is looking at Ukraine and saying "look, the amount of support that would be required to retake everything, including Crimea, is simply more than we are willing to commit to in the midst of a global recession. Take your win, take your lap, join Nato from a position of strength, and worry about Crimea in the future."
Exactly. If you’re Ukraine I think you take that deal.
Posted on 11/12/22 at 9:37 am to Joshjrn
quote:
Even if they won't admit it, I think everyone involved understands that Crimea is a Rubicon for the Putin administration. If Russia cedes everything taken other than Crimea (which I believe is where that would put us, unless I'm misreading it), I think Nato is looking at Ukraine and saying "look, the amount of support that would be required to retake everything, including Crimea, is simply more than we are willing to commit to in the midst of a global recession. Take your win, take your lap, join Nato from a position of strength, and worry about Crimea in the future."
Well, if I was Ukraine, I would try to take a maximalist position to ensure that the cost of Russia taking Crimea is so high that that cost is not worth it. For example, if Russia insists on keeping Crimea, then Ukraine should ask for US nuclear weapons to be stationed in Ukraine itself. Some maximalist position is the only way Ukraine should operate, because anything less is, in my opinion, going to cause conflict in the future, rather than solving the situation in a meaningful way.
Posted on 11/12/22 at 9:39 am to REG861
quote:
* Vladimir Putin has been offered surrender terms by Ukraine and allies, a prominent Russian academic said * Plan would see Russia give up all territory in Ukraine except Crimea, which would become demilitarised zone. * In return, Putin and cronies would avoid war crimes prosecution and remain in power, Valery Solovey claimed.
This is one of the most absurdly laughable stories on this war so far. And that’s saying something. Yes, it’s obvious the war isn’t going well for Russia. Simply put, they’re losing the war… badly.
But a surrender offer to avoid Putin and Russian leadership from facing war crimes trials?!?
Did the Ukrainian army somehow suddenly advance all the way to encircle Moscow overnight? Are the shattered remnants of the Russian Army making a hopeless last stand in the walls of the Kremlin while Putin is trapped underground in his bunker staring at the Makarov pistol on the table in front of him?
No?
Unless that happens, even though its looking more and more likely the war will end in Russia suing for a negotiated peace, there will be no war crimes trials.
ETA:,After thinking about it, there is one path for Putin to face war crimes trial, specifically via a Coup d'état or outright revolution that toppled him from power. Could happen. Not likely But it could.
This post was edited on 11/12/22 at 9:46 am
Posted on 11/12/22 at 9:40 am to crazy4lsu
If Ukraine is really running the Russians as reports say they are, the Zelensky government would be foolish to make any major concessions. They have all the bargaining power right now.
Posted on 11/12/22 at 9:42 am to crazy4lsu
What’s the point of Russia keeping Crimea if it’s going to be a declared demilitarized zone?
Posted on 11/12/22 at 9:43 am to crazy4lsu
quote:
Well, if I was Ukraine, I would try to take a maximalist position to ensure that the cost of Russia taking Crimea is so high that that cost is not worth it. For example, if Russia insists on keeping Crimea, then Ukraine should ask for US nuclear weapons to be stationed in Ukraine itself. Some maximalist position is the only way Ukraine should operate, because anything less is, in my opinion, going to cause conflict in the future, rather than solving the situation in a meaningful way.
We can park subs off their coast anytime we want. I don't care what Ukraine's position on the subject is, stationing warheads on the Russian border is an unnecessary provocation. Ukraine regaining everything except Crimea, joining Nato, and having the Nato stick as an enforcement mechanism in the event of Russia violating an agreement to demilitarize Crimea is a massive fricking win.
Now, this is all staggering hypothetical, because we have no idea whether any of this has actually been offered, but if it's a feasible agreement, Ukraine should take it, in my opinion. They would be unreasonably relying on the good will of the West if they didn't.
This post was edited on 11/12/22 at 9:45 am
Posted on 11/12/22 at 9:45 am to StormyMcMan
Both sides are stupid not to take this deal right now. It gives Ukraine back all their territory bearded Crimea but it also takes it away from Russia as a military base by making it a DMZ if I’m understanding the terms correctly. Unless they make the border to Crimea from Ukraine the DMZ and allow Russia to keep it’s bases there but if they keep all of Crimea as the DMZ that takes away Russia’s Black Sea fleet.
Posted on 11/12/22 at 9:48 am to RollTide1987
quote:
If Ukraine is really running the Russians as reports say they are, the Zelensky government would be foolish to make any major concessions. They have all the bargaining power right now.
Yeah, it seems they can (and should) press the advantage, but they can negotiate at the same time.
Posted on 11/12/22 at 9:51 am to LSUPilot07
quote:
Both sides are stupid not to take this deal right now.
The fact this alleged “deal” includes an offer from Ukraine to not put Putin on trial for war crimes, strongly indicates the story is probably bullshite. While the war is going strongly in Ukraine’s favor, they’re in no position to even mention war crimes trials of Russian leadership. It’s absurd.
Posted on 11/12/22 at 9:52 am to Joshjrn
quote:
I don't care what Ukraine's position on the subject is, stationing warheads on the Russian border is an unnecessary provocation.
I'm saying that if Russia gets some of its maximalist claims, then Ukraine has room to make those claims as well. There are other options on the table. They could return to the agreements they had about Russian use of Crimea before 2014, which Russia violated, which is another problem. Without some maximalist position, there is no guarantee that Russia would actually abide by any settlement. That's been the consistent them in negotiations with Russia.
How do the interested parties make a meaningful settlement when one party has consistently shown they will violate agreements without regard?
Posted on 11/12/22 at 9:55 am to ned nederlander
quote:
If true that’s a solid framework to be honest. Would need to formalize the seized assets being used to pay reparations
300 billion USD would be good a start on reparations for Ukraine but it is not enough. Ukraine is going to need more to rebuild its country and maintain a modern military that can defend itself when Russia decides to try it again. However, Russia could agree to pay the extra reparations over 25-50 years or so.
quote:
would need to see a general prohibition of military build up along either border.
That is a nonstarter. Ukraine is not going to agree to not being able to to use its troops to defend its borders as needed and neither is Russia.
quote:
But until then, any guess as where the next big thrust in this conflict happens? Can Ukraine push to melitopol and east through the rest of kherson oblast as winter sets in?
It all depends on the weather. If it is a warm winter like last year then their won't be much either side can do except for trench warfare until spring. If it is a cold winter then the ground around Svatove will freeze solid enough to support armor so the Ukrainians could push there. That makes the most sense because it would put basically all the major GLOCs between Russia and the conflict zone within HIMARs range. Then Ukraine could strike and knock out the bridges on those GLOCs and conduct a conflict wide version of the strategy they used in Kherson and basically starve the Russians out of Ukraine.
Posted on 11/12/22 at 9:56 am to RollTide1987
quote:
If Ukraine is really running the Russians as reports say they are, the Zelensky government would be foolish to make any major concessions. They have all the bargaining power right now.
To revisit this, we need to keep the larger context in sight. Is Ukraine cooking with gas? Absolutely. But they are still incredibly early going on that. This is the current map:
Don't get drunk on the blue when there's so much pink left on that map. If you can retake all of that pink, minus the striped zone, at the stroke of a pen? I don't know if refusing that is reasonable when your continued success is utterly predicated on the largess of other nation states.
Posted on 11/12/22 at 10:00 am to TacoNash
quote:
The irony especially with this thread
Still trying to figure out how to read a map?
IIRC it was Stidham8 who could not read a map.
Posted on 11/12/22 at 10:02 am to WeeWee
quote:
IIRC it was Stidham8 who could not read a map.
Lol, it was both.
Posted on 11/12/22 at 10:07 am to Joshjrn
First, colors on a map don’t tell the whole story. How much is the troop concentration? I don’t know either, but It’s possible that half of that pink could turn blue very quickly with Russian troop retreat after getting routed again.
Second, and just as important, Ukraine has a lot of anger and revenge on their mind. They have seen their innocent civilian population bombed, killed, tortured, raped, and kids forcibly sent to Russia. They don’t give a shite about “level of difficulty”.
I get that Macron wants Putin to safe face and avoid the nuclear threat, but Ukrainians couldn’t care less about that.
Second, and just as important, Ukraine has a lot of anger and revenge on their mind. They have seen their innocent civilian population bombed, killed, tortured, raped, and kids forcibly sent to Russia. They don’t give a shite about “level of difficulty”.
I get that Macron wants Putin to safe face and avoid the nuclear threat, but Ukrainians couldn’t care less about that.
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