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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 11/12/22 at 10:10 am to AGGIES
Posted on 11/12/22 at 10:10 am to AGGIES
quote:
Second, and just as important, Ukraine has a lot of anger and revenge on their mind. They have seen their innocent civilian population bombed, killed, tortured, raped, and kids forcibly sent to Russia. They don’t give a shite about “level of difficulty”.
Then Ukraine can bankroll their own revenge tour. Further, such a posture would likely give the NATO member nations pause when Ukraine moves to join.
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Posted on 11/12/22 at 10:10 am to StormyMcMan
quote:
Personally, I think Ukraine would go for it (assuming Russia abided) just because their economy is taking a massive hit and their losses probably aren't all that different from Russia. Given ukraines population is much smaller than Russias that is a much bigger long term hit. So I could see Ukraine being willing to lose Crimera for stability
Not saying they will, but just saying it isn't beyond possibility
The Ukrainian government might go for it but the Ukrainian military will not. I spoke to my former roommate again this morning and they have heard about the alleged peace deal and they said no way the military would go for it. The Ukrainian military is only going to accept Russia's complete withdraw from all of Ukrainian territory including Crimea. The Ukrainian military has the Russians against the ropes and they feel like if they let the Russians off now then the Russians will rebuild and increase their military and invade again but with millions of troops instead of hundreds of thousands. So they are willing to suffer the losses now to achieve a true victory instead of a half victory followed by even more deaths in 10 years or so.
Posted on 11/12/22 at 10:12 am to WeeWee
I’m hearing initial proposals for negotiated agreement have been run by Kremlin and Kiev. Miles apart atm
Posted on 11/12/22 at 10:15 am to AGGIES
quote:
First, colors on a map don’t tell the whole story. How much is the troop concentration? I don’t know either, but It’s possible that half of that pink could turn blue very quickly with Russian troop retreat after getting routed again.
You actually do have a point. A good chuck of that pink could fall because, like most of Ukraine, it’s flat as a table and offers few, if any, naturally defendable lines. As WWII proved, the key feature in a campaign fought in southern Ukraine is its rivers. If an offensive can create a bridgehead on the enemy side of a river, it can be expanded thus forcing the enemy to fall back to the next defensible line, which almost always proves to be the next river back. Trenches and defensive strong points can be emplaced for sure. But really all they usually do is slow down an advancing force and give time to build up defenses along the next river.
The key is establishing a bridgehead over the river and expanding it.
This post was edited on 11/12/22 at 10:19 am
Posted on 11/12/22 at 10:18 am to WeeWee
quote:
The Ukrainian government might go for it but the Ukrainian military will not. I spoke to my former roommate again this morning and they have heard about the alleged peace deal and they said no way the military would go for it. The Ukrainian military is only going to accept Russia's complete withdraw from all of Ukrainian territory including Crimea. The Ukrainian military has the Russians against the ropes and they feel like if they let the Russians off now then the Russians will rebuild and increase their military and invade again but with millions of troops instead of hundreds of thousands. So they are willing to suffer the losses now to achieve a true victory instead of a half victory followed by even more deaths in 10 years or so.
Hard to say they are wrong. Only an unequivocal failure would discourage Vlad.
Every other outcome just tells him to do it again
Posted on 11/12/22 at 10:24 am to molsusports
I hope Putin nukes us soon
ETA: would be based
ETA: would be based
This post was edited on 11/12/22 at 10:25 am
Posted on 11/12/22 at 10:31 am to crazy4lsu
He was smoking crack with Hunter who spilled the beans
Posted on 11/12/22 at 10:33 am to el Gaucho
You've been on a real roll lately since you forgot to switch accounts in the money board a couple weeks ago, talking about Meta.
Posted on 11/12/22 at 10:38 am to AGGIES
Lots of empty space in the Northeast for sure
Posted on 11/12/22 at 10:41 am to SlowFlowPro
I have all this free time now that the stock market is dead
Posted on 11/12/22 at 10:45 am to WestCoastAg
I think Russia's Ukraine invasion experiment is going to be coming to and end soon
Posted on 11/12/22 at 10:48 am to Kansas City King
quote:
I think Russia's Ukraine invasion experiment is going to be coming to and end soon
If we’re lucky, we get to see Putin shoot himself through the mouth live on TV during the surrender press conference.
I was born too late to see Bud Dwyer, and damnit, I feel like I missed out.
Posted on 11/12/22 at 10:49 am to WeeWee
quote:
The Ukrainian government might go for it but the Ukrainian military will not. I spoke to my former roommate again this morning and they have heard about the alleged peace deal and they said no way the military would go for it. The Ukrainian military is only going to accept Russia's complete withdraw from all of Ukrainian territory including Crimea.
I assume we aren’t really close to a cease fire, but I have to say I hope this isn’t true.
Being apart of the west isn’t all just gay marriage, the blacks and HIMARS. There are some standards of governance too. The ukrainian military needs to accept the decisions of its civilian government for better or worse.
Posted on 11/12/22 at 10:57 am to molsusports
quote:
Hard to say they are wrong. Only an unequivocal failure would discourage Vlad.
Every other outcome just tells him to do it again
I agree. It’s sad to see so many doves in this thread.
Russia needs to be defeated, period. Their problem is not just Putin’s ego. It seems the majority of Russians think they’re better than their neighbors and that they can do with them as they will.
If Putin goes away, another imperialistic dictator will take his place. Now is the time for a change in Russian society. One that will convince them that they are not a superpower but just a society that is flirting with third-world status.
Take away St. Petersburg and Moscow and you’ve got just another stan. When the USSR existed, the commies built a strong military on the backs of central and eastern Europe “soviet republics.”
That’s who the Ukes have been fighting since February. A military that was strong in the mid-20th century but which is rusted and outdated in the first quarter of the 21st century, having not been maintained.
The Russian societal mindset is also rusted and outdated. It’s time to show them that the world moved on while they were stuck celebrating their victory over true nazism in Germany. It’s like they’re in a time warp, still thinking they’re invincible.
Any kind of concession will only support that warped thinking. They must be defeated.
This post was edited on 11/12/22 at 11:01 am
Posted on 11/12/22 at 11:27 am to WeeWee
Any talk of a deal is really a moot point though because you can’t trust the Russians in anything you do so even if it’s a good deal that is in favor of Ukraine they can’t trust Russia to keep its word.
Posted on 11/12/22 at 11:29 am to Kentucker
quote:
I agree. It’s sad to see so many doves in this thread.
Russia needs to be defeated, period. Their problem is not just Putin’s ego. It seems the majority of Russians think they’re better than their neighbors and that they can do with them as they will.
If Putin goes away, another imperialistic dictator will take his place. Now is the time for a change in Russian society. One that will convince them that they are not a superpower but just a society that is flirting with third-world status.
Take away St. Petersburg and Moscow and you’ve got just another stan. When the USSR existed, the commies built a strong military on the backs of central and eastern Europe “soviet republics.”
That’s who the Ukes have been fighting since February. A military that was strong in the mid-20th century but which is rusted and outdated in the first quarter of the 21st century, having not been maintained.
The Russian societal mindset is also rusted and outdated. It’s time to show them that the world moved on while they were stuck celebrating their victory over true nazism in Germany. It’s like they’re in a time warp, still thinking they’re invincible.
Any kind of concession will only support that warped thinking. They must be defeated.
The hypothetical agreement would have Russia in a worse position than before this conflict. We would have more than met our obligations under Budapest. Take the win, add Ukraine to Nato. Any more than that and, if you aren't advocating for the United States to declare war, you're being unreasonably flippant, in my opinion.
Posted on 11/12/22 at 11:55 am to Joshjrn
quote:
The hypothetical agreement would have Russia in a worse position than before this conflict.
No, it wouldn’t. Any ceasefire or halt to military action will be seen by the Russians as a great victory. They don’t think the way we do.
They pay no heed to agreements, written or otherwise. Even a “demilitarized Crimea” would be ignored by them. They would see it as being theirs.
quote:
We would have more than met our obligations under Budapest.
It’s about so much more than this. It’s about us, Europe and the rest of the civilized world putting an end to a chronic bully. Russians only respect strength and they see themselves as the strongest of all.
Being defeated by Ukraine and it’s allies would tell them that they are no longer the only strong player in their neighborhood.
quote:
Take the win, add Ukraine to Nato. Any more than that and, if you aren't advocating for the United States to declare war, you're being unreasonably flippant, in my opinion.
Flippant is as flippant does. To cede any part of Ukraine to the Russians is about as flippant as anything that I can imagine in this war.
Posted on 11/12/22 at 12:07 pm to Kentucker
I'm not interested in a hot war with Russia. I'm also not interested in spending a trillion dollars we don't have to help Ukraine prove a point, which is likely what it would take.
With that said, I think this is all academic because I think it's incredibly unlikely Russia would agree to those terms, because they are delusional morons.
With that said, I think this is all academic because I think it's incredibly unlikely Russia would agree to those terms, because they are delusional morons.
Posted on 11/12/22 at 12:24 pm to Joshjrn
I don’t see any way Ukraine joins nato… they are years away from meeting the criteria. It starts with stronger economic ties to the EU… if/when they are back on their feet, maybe.
The future agreement that ends this war could include provisions that would prevent Ukraine from joining nato.
The future agreement that ends this war could include provisions that would prevent Ukraine from joining nato.
Posted on 11/12/22 at 12:27 pm to lowspark12
quote:
The future agreement that ends this war could include provisions that would prevent Ukraine from joining nato.
Because it wasn't expressly mentioned in the summary, I assumed it wasn't present. And I think that condition should be a non-starter if Russia attempts it. Take the land back at the stroke of a pen and fast track Ukraine into Nato.
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