re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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Sorry, I’m not down for my neighborhood to be leveled over the Donbas and Crimea

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If only that was all Putin was after, I would support Ukraine ceding it in exchange for a cessation of war. But it’s not, and Putin is a psychopath, so trying to reason with him at this point is DOA.

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what happened to you being banned from this thread

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An admin pages ago clarified what I was texted. Said to stop trolling it but that I’m not technically banned from posting in the thread.

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And they hadn’t done for many months. And it’s more the blowing up of the bridge in Crimea that I find to be a bigger escalation than that.

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Many months? They did strikes on Kyiv on August 25th and then launched both missile strikes and air strikes on September 4th. What the frick are you talking about? Why are you so loose with facts?

Also, I'm waiting on my post where I said that I wanted Putin out of Russia, you dishonest hack.

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Because it’s true and if you read history at all you know how this can happen to the detriment of everyone.

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I’ve been reading and studying history before you were even born. Posting on an online message board in no way equals drunk on war. To make that statement just shows how foolish and delusional you are.

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Oh really? Did I not say the war would severely escalate in October for months? Last I checked to start this month Ukraine blew up the bridge to supplying Crimea and Russia launched 80 missiles.

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There hasn’t been a severe escalation in October. The escalation came when Ukraine started their offensive. How about your predictions in the Japan’s prime minister assassination thread? Millions are going to starve and freeze this winter?

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You LARPers just thought September and August was proof they were going to lose. It’s Fall. If they’re going to push, that’s the season to do it. Winter is going to be such a different story.

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Following a thread on a sports boards makes me a LARPer? You’re completely off the reservation.

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Ukraine is so important to Russia that it would risk using a tactical nuke on territory it would also like to annex and use as a buffer region.

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Yes.

Territory it would also like to annex? No.
Territory it would like as a buffer? Perhaps.

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Ukrainians self-determination is secondary to Russian security

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Tell it to the Donbas separatists.

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For what its worth, that situation you described, Party A threatening a greater pain on Party B than on Party C

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Not my analogy.

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you've argued your points so poorly that you've made the case that the matter of nuclear war is a certainty

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It is not a matter of the argument.
It is a matter of the reception.

If the parties are as concrete as are you in the latter, nuclear war and the end of our civilization is exactly where this is headed ... over Donbas self-determination and NATO expansion.
How sad is that?

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Yes.

Territory it would also like to annex? No.
Territory it would like as a buffer? Perhaps.

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So they would seek out the course of action which would ensure that Ukraine is no longer a buffer, as it would ensure open fighting between the very powers they want a buffer from. That's some brilliant logic at play.

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Tell it to the Donbas separatists.

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And then what? You seem to elevate their self-determination over Ukrainian self-determination. That's how important Russian concerns are to you.

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Not my analogy.

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It is still a description of Russian escalation tactics, which apparently we have to take seriously because they could also inflict potential pain on themselves, to the point they negate their stated interest completely. Please for the love of god think this through.

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If the parties are as concrete as are you in the latter, nuclear war and the end of our civilization is exactly where this is headed ... over Donbas self-determination and NATO expansion.

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Does it matter exactly what it would end over? Is there some civilizational battle where it would be worth it? Again, the argument that you have laid out is that it the end result is nuclear war, and the only question is when. The sheer fact that Russia is willing to use nukes over what is an absolutely nonsensical reason (as a buffer from the West to prevent the chance of a possible invasion means something about Russian plans in the future, if you can put two and two together) is evidence enough that nuclear war is assured.

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Been spending time with the grandkids...flying home tomorrow. Is anything happening in the War?

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Not much, hence the pages of arguing brought on by Elon tweets (sorry, that was not my intent when I shared them).

Looks like some troop and equipment build up Belarus in cooperation between the two countries. Last I’ve seen is about 9,000 Belarusian troops and Russia has moved a decent amount of equipment there. Maybe to stage another shot at Kyiv or just a feint, an actual feint this time.

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Why not choose an easier, far more lucrative target in Kazakhstan?

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Because before the war, the Kazakhs were mostly in Russia's camp. They have moved away from that since the war began. That could be another flashpoint in the future, as the Caspian Sea Agreement, a good example of how long negotiations for multilateral international agreements could change with changes in regional geopolitics, as it was only recently negotiated after 20 years of work, but there were some issues still to be resolved.

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Yet, the target is Ukraine.
Why?

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Because Ukraine's interest has long been integration with Europe proper, and for some reason, Putin thought that the long negotiated agreements between Ukraine and Russia about Crimean bases were at stake, among many other reasons.

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as it would ensure open fighting between the very powers they want a buffer from.

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Would it?

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You seem to elevate their self-determination over Ukrainian self-determination

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You don't appear familiar enough with East Ukrainian ethnic grievances to be engaging this.

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Please for the love of god think this through.

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Cease with the projection. It isn't a good look.

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Does it matter exactly what it would end over?

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After the fact? Nope. But if it was avoidable, yet not avoided, survivors would rightfully cast the irresponsibility on all parties.