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Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 10/2/22 at 2:11 pm to BrianKellyRespecter
Posted on 10/2/22 at 2:11 pm to BrianKellyRespecter
The Kherson Russian pocket over the river has now had at least a month of limited supplies and so even the armor that was in the best shape should be seeing some wear and tear.
Without going into an all out MRO discussion regarding the Russian armor or motorized regiments, just view it that they aren’t really being able to do regular service or rotate in and out armor for routine mattinence like they should. That starts to have a cascading effect on what is available.
18 tank unit but one has a busted turret motor and another is having engine issues. Normally you swap them into your reserves and the reserve unit then swaps them into the repIr depot.
There are no bridges so no resupply or spares by now and most likely no major repair depot and likely limited units in reserve. Field repairs and likely unit triage means that anything that is broke now is cannibalized to keep the other units going and so is one less unit on the line or in reserves.
This adds up quick. Soon you have units at 1/2 strength or with limited mobility that makes a breakthrough that much easier to achieve and exploit.
The battle of Kherson, at least on the west side of the river, has been over strategically for a while. Without the bridges there are little reinforcements, especially armor, to replace losses due to attrition. The Russian inability to develop a pontoon bridge to help resupply armor into Kherson means at some point that the troops there will get overwhelmed. It’s more when, not if.
With Kherson the real thing to watch for is if the Ukrainians can jump the river to get to the East bank. If they can establish a bridgehead this winter, it will force a major shift in the Russian troops to help prepare to defend against a spring offensive.
Right now, from Kherson to Donetsk you are looking at a static front along geographic barriers and ping standing entrenched fortifications. Hoping the river near Kherson would cause chaos because it allows the Ukrainians to drive south in hopes to get closer to putting the supply line via the Kerch bridge in Crimea and then up NE to Melitopol, which is the only other way to get supplies in via rail.
The Ukrainians cut one major rail artery when they capture Kupyansk and hoped the Oskil river. The 2nd is the N/S rail that feeds most of Luhansk and Donetsk and the 3rd is through the Crimea at Kerch. Hop the river in Kherson and be able to pressure/target the main rail lines in Crimea will cripple an already bad logistics situation.
Without going into an all out MRO discussion regarding the Russian armor or motorized regiments, just view it that they aren’t really being able to do regular service or rotate in and out armor for routine mattinence like they should. That starts to have a cascading effect on what is available.
18 tank unit but one has a busted turret motor and another is having engine issues. Normally you swap them into your reserves and the reserve unit then swaps them into the repIr depot.
There are no bridges so no resupply or spares by now and most likely no major repair depot and likely limited units in reserve. Field repairs and likely unit triage means that anything that is broke now is cannibalized to keep the other units going and so is one less unit on the line or in reserves.
This adds up quick. Soon you have units at 1/2 strength or with limited mobility that makes a breakthrough that much easier to achieve and exploit.
The battle of Kherson, at least on the west side of the river, has been over strategically for a while. Without the bridges there are little reinforcements, especially armor, to replace losses due to attrition. The Russian inability to develop a pontoon bridge to help resupply armor into Kherson means at some point that the troops there will get overwhelmed. It’s more when, not if.
With Kherson the real thing to watch for is if the Ukrainians can jump the river to get to the East bank. If they can establish a bridgehead this winter, it will force a major shift in the Russian troops to help prepare to defend against a spring offensive.
Right now, from Kherson to Donetsk you are looking at a static front along geographic barriers and ping standing entrenched fortifications. Hoping the river near Kherson would cause chaos because it allows the Ukrainians to drive south in hopes to get closer to putting the supply line via the Kerch bridge in Crimea and then up NE to Melitopol, which is the only other way to get supplies in via rail.
The Ukrainians cut one major rail artery when they capture Kupyansk and hoped the Oskil river. The 2nd is the N/S rail that feeds most of Luhansk and Donetsk and the 3rd is through the Crimea at Kerch. Hop the river in Kherson and be able to pressure/target the main rail lines in Crimea will cripple an already bad logistics situation.
1
Posted on 10/2/22 at 2:12 pm to BrianKellyRespecter
Honest question…is any of this intentional on Putin’s part? I wonder if he is giving up ground and clearing out the battle field to nuke it.
Posted on 10/2/22 at 2:14 pm to Jim Rockford
quote:
I'm not so sure. Russian doctrine does call for the use of tactical nukes. At least on paper, they believe in using them. Putin knows he can't survive without winning this thing. That puts everything on the table.
But there's survival, and then there's survival.
If Putin believes nukes would have him win the war and leave him safe and comfortable in Russia for the rest of his life, I think he might be tempted. But if he believes that using nukes would potentially leave him as a hunted man internationally, if he thinks there is any chance that he might still lose the war even if he used nukes, I'm not sure he will take that risk.
He's a narcissist, but I think he'd rather step down and retire with his millions/billions in the countryside somewhere than end up hanged in the street or put on trial at the Hague.
Posted on 10/2/22 at 2:17 pm to Chromdome35
Just wanted to bring forward Chromdome25's excellent post from 9/23:
Jeffsdad, I put this together for you.
ETA: This is a good link to bookmark, its the sourcemap I used for this post. LINK
This is a map of the overall front. There are three areas to watch.
1: Eastern Front
2: Central Front (also known as the Zaporizhzhia Front)
3: Southern Front
1: On the eastern front Ukraine is currently attempting to take Lyman (#1 on map) Russia is fighting fiercely to keep it because if it falls to Ukraine, it opens up the flank of Severdonetsk. Simultaneously, they are pushing on #2 to interdict the railway (black line). Ultimately Ukraine will want to take #3 as it represents the remaining Russian Rail hub in the center of the region.
2: On the Central Front, there are multiple reports that Ukraine is building combat power to launch an assault on Melitopol. This entire area is strategically important because it is the land bridge to Crimea. Establishing the land bridge to Crimea was one of Russia's primary goals. Without this landbridge, Russia is forced to rely on the bridge across the Kerch strait as the only road into Crimea. If Ukraine takes Melitopol, then Russia's entire offensive is in danger of collapse.
3: On the Southern Front, The Russians are trapped on the north side of the river because Ukraine has taken out the only two bridges. Russia cannot effectively supply their troops in this area. Ukraine has been slowly advancing, their likely strategy being to let the Russian combat power wither away without supply. Ukraine has the luxury of time here.
Jeffsdad, I put this together for you.
ETA: This is a good link to bookmark, its the sourcemap I used for this post. LINK
This is a map of the overall front. There are three areas to watch.
1: Eastern Front
2: Central Front (also known as the Zaporizhzhia Front)
3: Southern Front
1: On the eastern front Ukraine is currently attempting to take Lyman (#1 on map) Russia is fighting fiercely to keep it because if it falls to Ukraine, it opens up the flank of Severdonetsk. Simultaneously, they are pushing on #2 to interdict the railway (black line). Ultimately Ukraine will want to take #3 as it represents the remaining Russian Rail hub in the center of the region.
2: On the Central Front, there are multiple reports that Ukraine is building combat power to launch an assault on Melitopol. This entire area is strategically important because it is the land bridge to Crimea. Establishing the land bridge to Crimea was one of Russia's primary goals. Without this landbridge, Russia is forced to rely on the bridge across the Kerch strait as the only road into Crimea. If Ukraine takes Melitopol, then Russia's entire offensive is in danger of collapse.
3: On the Southern Front, The Russians are trapped on the north side of the river because Ukraine has taken out the only two bridges. Russia cannot effectively supply their troops in this area. Ukraine has been slowly advancing, their likely strategy being to let the Russian combat power wither away without supply. Ukraine has the luxury of time here.
Posted on 10/2/22 at 2:19 pm to laxtonto
With your scenario do you think the Ukrainians can jump the river with enough force? If what you say is true it would almost seem inevitable, right?
Posted on 10/2/22 at 2:31 pm to Lsupimp
As you can see by the map, it's a series of reservoirs for most of its course, which makes it more problematic than throwing across a pontoon bridge. The Russians have used ferrying operations, which have been difficult under fire. Ukraine will probably be more successful but IDK if they can get enough supplies across to sustain an offensive.
Posted on 10/2/22 at 2:33 pm to CalcuttaTigah
quote:It seems more like he is being stubborn trying to hold the frontlines where they are. He ordered troops to stay in Lymon and now is doing the same with Kherson. As if these battles can be won based on the sheer will of the politician ordering it so.
Honest question…is any of this intentional on Putin’s part? I wonder if he is giving up ground and clearing out the battle field to nuke it.
Posted on 10/2/22 at 2:39 pm to BrianKellyRespecter
quote:
Absolutely impossible.
All it takes is a couple of guards to arrest him and throw him in prison.
Posted on 10/2/22 at 2:40 pm to mmcgrath
I don't think he has any delusions. But he's like the guy who's all in and needs to draw an ace. He knows it's probably not there but if it's not, Vito is gonna take him out back and break his kneecaps. There's no live to fight another day for Putin. He has a populace waking up to the realty of this war. Worse, he has people around him who think he hasn't gone far enough and believe they can do better. Somebody has to hold the line or he's fricked.
Posted on 10/2/22 at 2:51 pm to LSUCanFAN
quote:
Last 72 hrs 2800/900 is confirmed total.
That matched what my sauce(s) are saying too. My sauces are also saying that around 1500 of those 2800 were killed in the last 18 hours of fighting with atleast 10 of those 18 hours being extremely vicious. That is some fierce arse fighting.
quote:
Total RU military killed 63000 plus 20000 WG Mercs which the Kremlin for obvious reasons wants no where near the totals. Total wounded between the two is approximately 150000. there is some disagreement on MIA figures from Russia/NATO perspectives with Russian figures actually higher…Russia may not want to start paying survivor pensions right away. Putin is said to be aware of 65k dead from RU
Holy f**k! 85,000 Russians and mercenaries dead and 150,000 injured. That is a metric f**k ton of dead and no way they keep it quiet for long.
Posted on 10/2/22 at 2:51 pm to Lsupimp
From the Russian Z channel
https://t.me/c/1552544518/5815
https://t.me/c/1552544518/5815
quote:
??The Ukrainians broke through the front in the Kherson direction.
fricking Nazis took the settlement of Dutchany.
And this could turn into a disaster for us: dill can go to the crossing to the Kakhovskaya dam and capture Novaya Kakhovka (which, I remind you, is already part of Russia).
frick.
Good evening, generals, what are you dreaming about?!
Posted on 10/2/22 at 2:55 pm to Chromdome35
From Girkin who is making fun of what Russia is calling a NEGATIVE OFFENSIVE. Now mining the bridge at Kherson
LINK
LINK
Posted on 10/2/22 at 2:56 pm to Chromdome35
Russian Kotsnews on the situation on the Kherson front.
https://t.me/sashakots/36181
https://t.me/sashakots/36181
quote:
Ukry advance in the direction of Kherson. I am sure that in the coming days another 1-2 sectors of the front will appear, where the Ukrainians will try to advance. Ukrovskoe command show miracles of strategy and military leadership talents? - NO! They act ingenuously, having the fullness of intelligence, and all NATO intelligence is working for them, they are accumulating strike groups in those places where we are “subtly” and hit. Where our units resist, nothing comes of the Ukrainians, and they suffer huge losses. But losses are not important for them, they have a lot of meat. The main thing is that they do not invent anything, but use our mistakes. Plus, they act the way we did in 2014 against the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Bold, confident and sure. Only then we did not have what the Ukrainians have.
Better late than never, but we need to prepare front-line cities and towns for defense. Prepare for urban battles. Motivation is very important for urban battles. The commanders need to finally explain what the meaning of this war is. Explain that if you do not stop the enemy here and now, then he will have to be stopped on the threshold of their homes. And their cities can very quickly become front-line. And it's not about the Donbass or Ukraine. This war is more global and started many years ago by the West. Ukraine tricked but voluntarily agreed to become a battlefield between NATO and Russia. Either we will win on the territory of the former Ukraine, or we will have to win on the territory of Russia. Every fighter must understand this - he went to war so that the war itself would not come to his house.
Posted on 10/2/22 at 2:57 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
Ukrainians broke through the front in the Kherson direction. fricking Nazis took the settlement of Dutchany. And this could turn into a disaster for us: dill can go to the crossing to the Kakhovskaya dam and capture Novaya Kakhovka (which, I remind you, is already part of Russia).
Slava Ukraine biotches!
quote:
There are Unconfirmed reports that Russian Defensive Lines to the North of the City of Kherson on the Dnieper River have completely collapsed after suffering severe loses and that Russian Forces are now in Full-Retreat.
LINK
I hope they have their pontoon trains and engineers ready because the roads across the dam are impassive and the Ukrainians need to keep the heat on the Ruskies.
This post was edited on 10/2/22 at 3:01 pm
Posted on 10/2/22 at 2:59 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
it's not about the Donbass or Ukraine. This war is more global and started many years ago by the West. Ukraine tricked but voluntarily agreed to become a battlefield between NATO and Russia. Either we will win on the territory of the former Ukraine, or we will have to win on the territory of Russia. Every fighter must understand this - he went to war so that the war itself would not come to his house.
Posted on 10/2/22 at 3:04 pm to AGGIES
quote:
Absolutely impossible.
All it takes is a couple of guards to arrest him and throw him in prison
Russian leaders tend to go from despots to deposed in shockingly fast order
Posted on 10/2/22 at 3:07 pm to CitizenK
quote:
From Girkin who is making fun of what Russia is calling a NEGATIVE OFFENSIVE.
Now that is good stuff.
quote:
Now mining the bridge at Kherson
Them orcs better hurry.
quote:
Russian sources claim that Ukrainian forces are trying to take over Beryslav city. If these claims are true,this would indicate that Ukrainian soldiers have breached around 72 km into Russian lines in Kherson Oblast. Furthermore, Dudchany was allegedly taken over a few hours ago.
LINK
72 km in less than a day. The good guys are hauling arse. Stidham8 would shite his pants if he could see a front collapsing that fast.
Posted on 10/2/22 at 3:10 pm to WeeWee
Russian Telegram on Kherson
https://t.me/boris_rozhin/65895?single
https://t.me/boris_rozhin/65895?single
quote:
??????????The difficult situation in the south: The enemy is conducting a powerful tank offensive, breaking through towards Berislov
??Yesterday, tank and infantry battalions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine attacked from Novovorontsovka in the direction of Khreschenovka.
??The enemy was met by our howitzers and MLRS, which stopped the pressure of the enemy.
Army aviation helicopters also came into play, burning enemy equipment.
??Our tanks did not come to the rescue in time and the enemy threw new forces and continued the offensive.
??The forces of the 80th brigade came to the aid of the 126th coastal defense brigade.
??During the first day of heavy fighting, ours burned down 15-20 infantry fighting vehicles and up to 10 tanks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
??Our people withdrew from the gray zone from Lyubimovka.
?? Oskorovka and Zolotaya Balka were also abandoned, in the evening the enemy approached Dudchany on the banks of the Dnieper.
??The enemy continues to put pressure, stubborn battles continue, our fighters really need reinforcements.
??From the positive: Our troops repelled the attack on Davydov Ford near the river. Ingulets and Pravdino, dozens of enemy vehicles were destroyed, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have a large number of dead and wounded.
t.me/RVvoenkor
Posted on 10/2/22 at 3:12 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
@GlobeSentinels · 4m #NATO has sent an intelligence note to its member countries warning of the mobilization of the #Russian nuclear submarine 'K-329 Belgorod', carrying the Poseidon nuclear missile - Italian daily 'La Repubblica'
Posted on 10/2/22 at 3:15 pm to JJJimmyJimJames
quote:
The Khazarians are not in any way the biblical Jews.
JJJimmyJimJames, are you part of the so-called "Christian Identity movement"?
For those that are unaware, these people believe that the "ten lost tribes of Israel" spread across Europe and that those of the white race are the literal descendants of the Israelites of the Bible.
Most Ashkenazi Jews of today, they claim, are not actually racially Jewish at all. So, it's actually the white people who are the literal heirs of God's promises in the Bible. When Jesus said that he "was sent to the lost sheep of the house of Israel," that meant that the message of Jesus Christ was meant for the white race!
Notice that JJJimmyJimJames referred to Jews such as Zelensky as "imposters." In his view, he is not an anti-Semite, because most Jews are not really descendants of Shem (son of Noah). That, in his view, means that they are worthy of hatred.
Sadly, I know so much of this because I was raised in this cult. I have been free of it for 30 years, but my mother is still a prisoner of these delusions. I guess it's not surprising that she also believes every conspiracy under the sun -- she's even a flat-earther.
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