re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The levels of desperation are almost hard to believe.

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We have information that Putin is preparing to announce mobilization, reports Presidential Advisor for National Security Jake Sullivan.

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LINK

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they are having issues equiping present front with modern weapons. How is general mobilization going to help?

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Those T-34's aren't just going to drive themselves.

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they are having issues equiping present front with modern weapons. How is general mobilization going to help?

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Aside from nukes, Russia doesn't likely have any additional hardware. These latest moves are less rational than the invasion itself.

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Capture Starobilsk and the only rail and major connection between the Luhansk oblasts and the Donetsk oblasts is severed. Plus every time Ukraine captures a rail line Russian forces flee. I doubt announcing the annexation of the 2 oblasts will carry much weight if the new Russian soil is split in 2 and Russian troops are retreating.

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That spur may already be worthless since the UKA can reach the triple rail bridge south of Valyuki from the territory rolled up in the latest Kharkiv offensive. It is approximately 20 km from the bridges to the border and as such that puts that entire spur out of Belgorod/Vulyuki/Starobilsk out of commission to actually resupply from Russia proper.

Now if you mean to cut off the direct rail link from Staroblisk to Luhansk, I agree that it would seriously limit the ability to transfer troops back and forth, but right now with the BVS spur out all supplies have to be rerouted through Liski, Russia south to around to Luhansk and then up north.

It might be just as easy to cut off the rail traffic with HIMARS hitting the rail bridge at Polovynkyne and just let the entire northern sector wither and die with no rail access.

Anybody out there think that Luka doesn't slooow roll that "alarm to wartime standards"?

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They are having issues equiping present front with modern weapons. How is general mobilization going to help?

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Russian law is a weird thing; mobilization means a very different approach to who can be sent into the conflict zone, a stark departure from the last 30 years of Federation law, which even Chechnya did not change. It will at the very least allow them to flood in desperately needed additional manpower to try to slow the Ukranian counter-offensive, even if not resolve the logistics problems that underly the losses.

This move is a pretty significant escalation, but also one of a dwindling number of cards left in Putin's hands, and it will bring much more political pressure into his conflict than ever before.

If Belarus steps in, you think Poland steps in to aid Ukraine?

Poland can request NATO not invoke Article 5 and go HAM on Russia

If Russia escalates this by "annexing" part of Ukraine, undertaking a mobilization, and declaring war, I think the US will respond, at a minimum, by supplying ATACMS to the Ukrainians.

If Belarus, starts to become an active participant, I believe Poland will come off the sidelines.

From a worldview perspective, this is entering the most dangerous phase so far.

I really don't see Luka joining the war if he hadn't done so before now. He can't afford to send his army into Ukraine or he'll be thrown out of power.