re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

for the record, the reported UFOs.....yea that US air force

we are 100% testing and observing

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sure send more to be slaughtered. you cant throw low trained personel at a modern battlefield and hope to win just based off that.

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Picture of the latest Russian conscripts being trained for fighting in Ukraine

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The way I think about it is Iraq and/or Afghanistan. The domestic US population as a whole didn't really care about us going there so there was "support" for it, but if the US all the sudden started having to mobilize for either of them the domestic support would have probably vanished over night.

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I was against Iraq from the beginning but fully supported Afghanistan. I was out of the military when it popped off but would have "mobilized" had the country asked for it.

The Taliban supported and trained Al Qaeda... They needed to have their arse kicked. Iraq did not support UBL. The invasion was based off a neo-con ideal of democracy building in a region that shuns freedom. We ignored the local politics and thousands died for it. Russia is now making the same mistake

Do Russian troops feel that the war in Ikraine is fighting for the freedoms of its citizens?
That is what our troops are made to believe.

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Some truth slipping into Russian state TV?

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Damn, glad she is not in charge. They, RU Forces, might actually be effective with her at the helm. Most sense I have seen a single Russian make, besides those poor bastards on the front lines calling their wives back home.

I worry that they will use the referendums to force civilians in the occupied territories to "fight for their country". Basically use them as human shields.

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Are we about to see a general mobilization in Russia? Are they about to go all in?

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I don't think so, for several reasons:

1) Russian popular opinion is not in favor of it. There will be protests if conscripts are sent to Ukraine. There will be more draft-dodging. Even today's news is causing a number of young men to flee the country. I read that a Russian airline actually has a function on the website that allows you to search for any ticket out of Russia.

But, more generally, anti-war sentiment has been subdued in Russia largely because the war has been fought by volunteers and contract soldiers. If you didn't want to fight, you didn't have to fight. A true mobilization would spark real opposition.

2) It's too late to mobilize. Really. The time to mobilize was in March, when it was obvious that the initial attempt to take Kyiv had failed. If it had been done then, those men might be reasonably decent fighters now. But to do a draft at this time would not produce viable soldiers for a long while.

3) Russia now has no one to train these troops. Or lead them. Russia has lost so much of its best units and professional soldiers. Their losses among officers has been crippling.

4) Russia doesn't have equipment for them to use. What, are they going to try to haul some more rusty T-62s out of storage? Russian heavy industries can't efficiently get the foreign parts they need to keep assembly lines running well to make new equipment.

And then, what happens when Russian forces are pushed back across the Dnipro next month? You thought that the 200 pieces of equipment that Russia left behind in Kharkiv Oblast was a lot? In Kherson, the total will be ten times higher. None of those tanks, radars, fuel trucks, etc. are going back over the river with fleeing Russian troops. They will all become the property of the AFU.



So, no, Russia probably isn't going to do a real general mobilization, because that wouldn't work. What's happening now is that Putin is likely trying to give the appearance of doing stuff, to appease critics who are pointing out that Russia is losing the war.

It will also be useful in domestic messaging to claim that "Russia is being attacked" as Ukrainian troops advance.


But today's news is going to galvanize opposition to Russia. The blatant claiming that they just take Ukrainian land is going to damage Russia's relations with India, China, Turkey and others. They can all now see how this war is going to end.

And it's going to cause the West to increase arms deliveries to Ukraine. It's so outrageous that Scholz, Macron, and others will probably be persuaded that it's time to give Ukraine modern, NATO tanks and other armored vehicles.

In sum, Putin felt the need to do this as a result of domestic political pressure, but today's announcements will actually hasten Russia's defeat.

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Are we about to see a general mobilization in Russia? Are they about to go all in?

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It appears so.

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The Russian Government has reportedly made changes to its Constitution and other National Laws in the last 24 hours that make it easier for a General Mobilization and Transfer to a War Economy to be ordered within the Country, seems as though they are preparing to go all in.

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LINK

If Russia goes all in then Biden needs to get off his senile arse and get western fighter jets, SAMs, and tanks to Ukraine ASAP. It will take 3-6 months for Russia to effectively mobilize its forces and get them to the front. So there will be just enough time to train the Ukrainians on the equipment.

Really good post. Some have been calling Russia's current system "shadow mobilization", but if it plays out the way you outline, you might call it "pseudo-mobilization". Putin's control of the media and the political and security state allows him to dictate perception of reality with a Potemkin mobilization for a while and I suppose he's holding out hopes for a Hail Mary of the European winter and energy prices to break the coalition, but if Russia is saying it's fully mobilizing against the Europeans fighting them in Ukraine, it seems like that strategy also takes a hit. If they had been able to keep the gas flowing until November and THEN cut it off, he might really shake them, but as it is, they're adjusting and the European voters will hopefully more easily blame the Russians than their pols.