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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 9/20/22 at 10:48 am to GOP_Tiger
Posted on 9/20/22 at 10:48 am to GOP_Tiger
Really good post. Some have been calling Russia's current system "shadow mobilization", but if it plays out the way you outline, you might call it "pseudo-mobilization". Putin's control of the media and the political and security state allows him to dictate perception of reality with a Potemkin mobilization for a while and I suppose he's holding out hopes for a Hail Mary of the European winter and energy prices to break the coalition, but if Russia is saying it's fully mobilizing against the Europeans fighting them in Ukraine, it seems like that strategy also takes a hit. If they had been able to keep the gas flowing until November and THEN cut it off, he might really shake them, but as it is, they're adjusting and the European voters will hopefully more easily blame the Russians than their pols.
This post was edited on 9/20/22 at 10:53 am
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Posted on 9/20/22 at 10:50 am to jeffsdad
The city of Kharkiv has never been under Russian control.
Posted on 9/20/22 at 10:56 am to TigerDoc
I think that the likely effect of today's announcements is to cement that Russia's annexation of Crimea was just as illegitimate as these sham referenda.
For the longest time, I thought that the war would end with Russia still in control of Crimea. I've been unsure about that for a few weeks, and now I feel confident that Ukraine will return to its 2014 borders.
For the longest time, I thought that the war would end with Russia still in control of Crimea. I've been unsure about that for a few weeks, and now I feel confident that Ukraine will return to its 2014 borders.
Posted on 9/20/22 at 10:59 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
I feel confident that Ukraine will return to its 2014 borders.
As it should... Will Georgia and Moldova try to retake their conquered territory?
What an incredible turn of events. We thought we were seeing the true advent of Cold War II in March.
Now we have discovered the emperor has no clothes
This post was edited on 9/20/22 at 11:00 am
Posted on 9/20/22 at 11:07 am to TigerDoc
Dang, that is correct doc. I keep getting cities confused! Dang, I hope they didn’t send troops there awaiting surrender based on what I said.
Posted on 9/20/22 at 11:16 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
I think that the likely effect of today's announcements is to cement that Russia's annexation of Crimea was just as illegitimate as these sham referenda.
For the longest time, I thought that the war would end with Russia still in control of Crimea. I've been unsure about that for a few weeks, and now I feel confident that Ukraine will return to its 2014 borders.
How do you figure that? If Ukraine returns to its 01/01/2014 borders then Russia will have to give up Crimea. It's highly unlikely Ukraine returns to its 12/31/2014 borders, since Russia is going to try and claim all of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts even though they no longer control all of the Luhansk Oblast and never controlled all of the Donetsk Oblast. If Ukraine gives in and lets them have the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts then that is not the 2014 borders either.
Also Russian annexation of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts does nothing to change the situation on the ground unless Russia decides to go nuclear since Ukrainian troops would not be fighting on ground that Russia claims to be "Russian soil." Kherson will still be surrounded and cut off. Russia has deployed its junior officers and NCOs (if you can call them that) to the front. It will have to withdraw them from the front in order to train reserves (unless it decides to just hand lots of untrained constricts AKs and send them into battle as machine gun fodder). That will decrease Russia's ability to fight effectively which is not a good position for Russia to be in right now. Ukraine will still have the momentum, and if/when a decrease in Russia's fighting efficacy leads to an opportunity Ukraine has the superior leadership structure, intelligence assets (thanks to NATO passing them info) and superior numbers to effectively exploit the weakness.
If Russia goes nuclear then I have no idea where this will end. Anyone who feels confident about how it ends if Russia drops a nuke is just pulling shite out of his or her arse.
This post was edited on 9/20/22 at 11:24 am
Posted on 9/20/22 at 11:21 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
And it's going to cause the West to increase arms deliveries to Ukraine. It's so outrageous that Scholz, Macron, and others will probably be persuaded that it's time to give Ukraine modern, NATO tanks and other armored vehicles.
From a tank standpoint, they don’t even have to send the latest and greatest versions of the Abrams and Leopards. If the Ukrainians had maybe a division’s worth of either the M1A1 that I used in Iraq over 30 years ago, backed up with M3 Bradleys and supported by M109 Paladin’s & MLRS, they’d run through the Russians like shite through a goose.
Posted on 9/20/22 at 11:22 am to WeeWee
quote:
@sentdefender There are Unconfirmed Reports that after 2359 Moscow Local Time tonight, it will be Illegal for Military Aged Men between the ages of 18-65 to leave Russia and all Territories Occupied by the Russian Federation.
Posted on 9/20/22 at 11:22 am to lsu777
quote:
sure send more to be slaughtered. you cant throw low trained personel at a modern battlefield and hope to win just based off that.
not to mention ukraine has hundreds of thousands in training right now in case they are needed.
Ex Officer warns the same thing to Russian Warhawks pushing for mobilization. Mobilization wont solve Russian issues. LINK
Khodaryonok correctly warned the risks / shortcomings of the Russian military pre invasion. Has had to backtrack once in with his brutal assessments about the war.
This post was edited on 9/20/22 at 11:25 am
Posted on 9/20/22 at 11:29 am to Burhead
Russia alters criminal code in what may be precursor to general mobilization
September 20, 2022, 09:12 AM
The Russian parliament has voted to amend the country’s criminal code, introducing “mobilization” and “martial law” as legal terms, as well as criminal punishments for desertion and surrender, Russian media outlet Meduza reported on Sept. 20.
The amendments would make voluntary surrender by Russian troops punishable with 10 years in prison, and looting – 15 years.
Additionally, military service members who abandon their units without leave during martial law would face up to 10 years in prison. Criminal responsibility is also introduced for reservists who defy mobilization summons.
Finally, refusing to follow combat orders during martial law could result in up to three years in a penal colony.
Russia’s invasion army in Ukraine has been plagued by all of the offences for which punishments have been increased.
The New Voice of Ukraine
September 20, 2022, 09:12 AM
The Russian parliament has voted to amend the country’s criminal code, introducing “mobilization” and “martial law” as legal terms, as well as criminal punishments for desertion and surrender, Russian media outlet Meduza reported on Sept. 20.
The amendments would make voluntary surrender by Russian troops punishable with 10 years in prison, and looting – 15 years.
Additionally, military service members who abandon their units without leave during martial law would face up to 10 years in prison. Criminal responsibility is also introduced for reservists who defy mobilization summons.
Finally, refusing to follow combat orders during martial law could result in up to three years in a penal colony.
Russia’s invasion army in Ukraine has been plagued by all of the offences for which punishments have been increased.
The New Voice of Ukraine
Posted on 9/20/22 at 11:32 am to TigerDoc
quote:
Really good post. Some have been calling Russia's current system "shadow mobilization", but if it plays out the way you outline, you might call it "pseudo-mobilization". Putin's control of the media and the political and security state allows him to dictate perception of reality with a Potemkin mobilization for a while and I suppose he's holding out hopes for a Hail Mary of the European winter and energy prices to break the coalition, but if Russia is saying it's fully mobilizing against the Europeans fighting them in Ukraine, it seems like that strategy also takes a hit. If they had been able to keep the gas flowing until November and THEN cut it off, he might really shake them, but as it is, they're adjusting and the European voters will hopefully more easily blame the Russians than their pols
1. Russia has already shite the bed because if it mobilizes it is going to take months to train the reserves and modernize the equipment.
2. Imagine how much better off Europe would be if Merkel and Macron had listened to Trump and Poland and invested in the infrastructure needed for American LNG to reduce Europe's consumption of natural gas instead of doubling down on importing Russian gas back in 2014. Western europeans should blame and throw out their liberal globalist politicians who ignored America's and eastern europe's warnings about Russia for the past 8 years or so. Hopefully europeans remember that Russia is not their friend when they elect their new governments and follow Poland's lead and not Hungary's lead.
Posted on 9/20/22 at 11:40 am to Darth_Vader
quote:
From a tank standpoint, they don’t even have to send the latest and greatest versions of the Abrams and Leopards. If the Ukrainians had maybe a division’s worth of either the M1A1 that I used in Iraq over 30 years ago, backed up with M3 Bradleys and supported by M109 Paladin’s & MLRS, they’d run through the Russians like shite through a goose.
Even the best of the best American tank divisions would have not have been able to keep up an offensive when it out ran its supply lines, and American supply lines would not have been able to keep up with the spearhead any better than the Ukrainians did given how shitty the road network in Ukraine is. Ukraine has several division worth of modernized USSR and captured modern Russian tanks to do that and it did that two weeks ago. It is not the American equipment that allows the USA to run through shite like a goose on an enemy. It's our training and tactics which the Ukrainians have adopted. However, western tactics cannot overcome a road and rail network that is aging and was designed by the USSR to allow troops and supplies to pass through the country but not sustain a fight in the country or at least the eastern part of the country.
Posted on 9/20/22 at 11:41 am to Burhead
quote:
@sentdefender There are Unconfirmed Reports that after 2359 Moscow Local Time tonight, it will be Illegal for Military Aged Men between the ages of 18-65 to leave Russia and all Territories Occupied by the Russian Federation.
Only 7 months behind their opponent.
Posted on 9/20/22 at 11:42 am to WeeWee
Stoltenberg just said the referendums are an escalation of the war in Ukraine and Ukrainian officials are saying the annexation will end any hopes for a diplomatic solution (if there was one to start with).
Posted on 9/20/22 at 11:46 am to TigerDoc
quote:
The #US Department of Justice has asked Congress to legalize the transfer of frozen #Russian assets to #Ukraine in response to the announced "referendums". At least $ 300 billion of such assets are blocked in the United States.
See now this is where I’d like to see the US require a chunk of this to come right back to us in the form of payments under the lend lease program.
“We’re going to build Ukraine’s military and Russia is going to pay for it” has a certain je ne said quoi quality to it.
Posted on 9/20/22 at 11:52 am to Burhead
quote:
Stoltenberg just said the referendums are an escalation of the war in Ukraine and Ukrainian officials are saying the annexation will end any hopes for a diplomatic solution (if there was one to start with).
The was never hope of a diplomatic solution.
With that being said, Ukraine needs to just ignore the noise about a Russian mobilization and referendums. It needs to push through Svatore to Starobilsk before the referendum results are announced.
Capture Starobilsk and the only rail and major connection between the Luhansk oblasts and the Donetsk oblasts is severed. Plus every time Ukraine captures a rail line Russian forces flee. I doubt announcing the annexation of the 2 oblasts will carry much weight if the new Russian soil is split in 2 and Russian troops are retreating.
Posted on 9/20/22 at 11:55 am to ned nederlander
quote:
The #US Department of Justice has asked Congress to legalize the transfer of frozen #Russian assets to #Ukraine in response to the announced "referendums". At least $ 300 billion of such assets are blocked in the United States.
See now this is where I’d like to see the US require a chunk of this to come right back to us in the form of payments under the lend lease program.
“We’re going to build Ukraine’s military and Russia is going to pay for it” has a certain je ne said quoi quality to it.
I mentioned this last week or maybe it was over the weekend and got slammed for it. It is a great move that would silence the "muh my tax dollars" ppl and allow the USA to support Ukraine without using my tax dollars.
Posted on 9/20/22 at 11:58 am to WeeWee
quote:
silence the "muh my tax dollars" ppl
You know it won’t though
Posted on 9/20/22 at 12:14 pm to WeeWee
[quote]The #US Department of Justice has asked Congress to legalize the transfer of frozen #Russian assets to #Ukraine in response to the announced "referendums". At least $ 300 billion of such assets are blocked in the United States. See now this is where I’d like to see the US require a chunk of this to come right back to us in the form of payments under the lend lease program. “We’re going to build Ukraine’s military and Russia is going to pay for it” has a certain je ne said quoi quality to it. I mentioned this last week or maybe it was over the weekend and got slammed for it. It is a great move that would silence the "muh my tax dollars" ppl and allow the USA to support Ukraine without using my tax dollars.[/quote
ONLY if we pay ourselves back what is owed FIRST.
ONLY if we pay ourselves back what is owed FIRST.
Posted on 9/20/22 at 12:15 pm to PrecedentedTimes
quote:
@EndGameWW3 Update: RT: Both Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics, as well as Kherson and Zaporozhye regions, have announced they will be holding a vote on whether to become part of Russia.
So I knew it was going to involve the DNR/LNR but apparently Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.
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