re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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Let’s say Ukraine takes back all or most of their territory, what does the security situation in Eastern Europe look like after that?

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It depends very much on who replaces Putin and what that new system looks like. It depends on whether Tuva, Chechnya, etc. decide to to push for independence and how much internal turmoil there is in Russia.

But Putin will not stay in power if Ukraine wins this war. He will not negotiate the treaty. There would simply be no way for Russia to tolerate that humiliation. People have to understand that so much of Russian motivation for this war derives from nationalistic pride. If Russia destroys its economy, makes itself hated by much of the world, sets its military back 30 years, and loses the territory that it gained in 2014 ... and loses some 70,000 lives in the process?

Very soon, we're see voices coming from the Russian dovish left, saying that the war was always stupid and morally wrong. We'll see voices from the hawkish Russian right saying that it was arrogant to pretend that this could be done as a "special operation" and that Russia should have been put on a war footing from the beginning, with full mobilization -- that it was an insult to the men fighting in Ukraine to play stupid games such as the tank biathlon and the Vostok exercises. Both will be correct.

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It also means that there was a strong resistance and likely special ops active behind the lines and deep in occupied territory.

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There was definitely a plan to launch partisan and special ops attacks in conjunction with the Kharkiv offensive. It's purpose is to exploit opportunities and create confusion in the Russian command. It's hard for Russia to redeploy forces when they are facing threats in lots of places.

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If true, Russia lost this war in less than a week. It also means that there was a strong resistance and likely special ops active behind the lines and deep in occupied territory.

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When I visited the Dnipro region I saw some spetnaz guys wearing the old ttsko and other old soviet pattern camouflage . I asked my buddy why the were wearing those old camos and he said it was because that it was the LPR and DPR militias wear. That way they can rip off their Ukrainian patches and throw on separatist patches and blend in when they cross the lines. One of my buddy's brothers is in the Ukrainian Spetznaz and he has been operating in the occupied territory for months now. So I am fairly certain that Ukraine has been organizing a resistance force for a while now. Which it is relatively easy to do with Russia not taking down the cell networks.

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I just don’t buy that the Southern offensive was a ‘feint’…hell, there’s still serious fighting going on there now… Ukraine has suffered real casualties in the south… just because it pulled in Russian resources and top line troops doesn’t mean it was solely designed to open up the northern offensive.

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It wasn't. Ukraine just had the resources available to mount multiple counterattacks and when they saw that Russia had redeployed its best troops to Kherson and left separatist militia holding the line in Kharkiv they struck and struck hard.

More news coming out of Donetsk.

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The Gauleiter for the Russian fascists in temporarily-occupied Donetsk, Denis Pushilin, has fled the city.

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LINK
Pushilin makes video saying all is well while he is in a car fleeing to Russia.

The rumors of fighting near Donetsk city might actually be true if the Head of the Donetsk People's Republic is fleeing the Donetsk People's Republic.

I also don’t think the fighting around kherson is/was a feint. That’s a real campaign to evict Russia.

I do think there was a feint in terms of that being presented as the main thrust. Before the Kharkiv offensive there were stories about American war gamers convincing Ukraine to pursue a limited counter offensive. I do believe the Russians had no idea what was coming in the east this week.

ISW Sept 10th Update

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The Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kharkiv Oblast is routing Russian forces and collapsing Russia’s northern Donbas axis....

Ukrainian forces have penetrated Russian lines to a depth of up to 70 kilometers in some places and captured over 3,000 square kilometers of territory in the past five days since September 6 – more territory than Russian forces have captured in all their operations since April.

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Ukrainian forces will likely capture the city of Izyum itself in the next 48 hours if they have not already done so.

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The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced the withdrawal of troops from the Balakliya-Izyum line on September 10, falsely framing the retreat as a “regrouping” of forces to support Russian efforts in the Donetsk Oblast direction – mirroring the Kremlin’s false explanation for the Russian withdrawal after the Battle of Kyiv.

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The Russian MoD’s inability to admit Russian failures in Kharkiv Oblast and effectively set information conditions is collapsing the Russian information space

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The withdrawal announcement further alienated the Russian milblogger and Russian nationalist communities that support the Kremlin’s grandiose vision for capturing the entirety of Ukraine.

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Russian milbloggers also criticized the Russian occupation authorities for failing to organize evacuation measures in Kharkiv Oblast.

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Key Takeaways

Ukrainian forces in Kharkiv Oblast are collapsing Russia’s northern Donbas axis, and Ukrainian forces will likely recapture Izyum itself in the next 48 hours.

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced the withdrawal of troops from the Balakliya-Izyum line on September 10, and the Russian MoD’s failure to set effective information conditions is collapsing the Russian information space.

The withdrawal announcement and occupation authorities’ failure to organize evacuation measures is further alienating the Russian milblogger and Russian nationalist communities that support the Kremlin’s grandiose vision of capturing the entirety of Ukraine.

Ukrainian forces reached positions within 15–25km of the Russo-Ukrainian border in northeastern Kharkiv Oblast, Izyum’s northern outskirts, and Lyman’s south and southwestern outskirts, and captured the western half of Kupyansk.

Russian forces are reinforcing frontline positions in Kherson Oblast while Ukrainian forces conduct positional battles and continue their interdiction campaign against Russian logistics lines.

Russian forces conducted limited ground assaults north of Kharkiv City, south of Bakhmut, and west of Donetsk City.

Russian recruitment drives are generating some criticism among Russian milbloggers and regions.

Russian forces are reportedly intensifying filtration measures in Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts in response to Ukrainian counteroffensives on the Southern Axis.

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British Defence Intelligence
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 11 September 2022
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE

Over the last 24 hours, Ukrainian forces have continued to make significant gains in the Kharkiv region. Russia has likely withdrawn units from the area, but fighting continues around the strategically important cities of Kupiansk and Izium

On 07 September 2022, President Putin said that only 60,000 tonnes of the grain exported from Ukraine since August had been sent to developing countries, and that the majority had been delivered to EU states.

Putin's claim is not true. According to UN figures, around 30% has been supplied to low and middle-income countries in Africa, the Middle East and Asia.

Russia is pursuing a deliberate misinformation strategy as it seeks to deflect blame for food insecurity issues, discredit Ukraine and minimise opposition to its invasion.