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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Posted on 9/10/22 at 5:40 pm to
Posted by WeeWee
Member since Aug 2012
45554 posts
Posted on 9/10/22 at 5:40 pm to
quote:

Wee Wee are your sources reporting yet on when Russia is going to hold elections in the conquered provinces?



The elections in Kharkiv were officially cancelled on Wednesday or Thursday I do not remember which. Luhansk is still planning on having elections in October. Donetsk elections are pending, and Kherson elections have been postponed because of ballots that were lost when Ukrainian artillery sunk the ferry carrying them to the local elections office in preparation for the election.
Posted by LSUPilot07
Member since Feb 2022
8599 posts
Posted on 9/10/22 at 5:44 pm to
Not the Ukrainians fault for having night vision. That’s quality over quantity. Tanks are always vulnerable taking hits from behind though since the dawn of tank warfare. Everyone feared the Tiger in WWII until they realized it’s just another tank if you let it pass and hit it in the arse.
Posted by DabosDynasty
Member since Apr 2017
5180 posts
Posted on 9/10/22 at 6:18 pm to
quote:

Let’s say Ukraine takes back all or most of their territory, what does the security situation in Eastern Europe look like after that?


Just my untrained opinion:

If Ukraine regains all of its territory, stops there, and the war ends I think Ukraine becomes an EU and NATO member cementing the Eastern European flank with NATO troops & equipment and then a well experienced Ukrainian army that we will help rebuild and continue to train in coordination with NATO.

A humiliation of this level has to bring more domestic instability in Russia that I’m not sure anyone knows where goes. I suspect Belarus would get sucked into this as well. I think you’d see a greater effort to strengthen the NATO border with both countries in response.

Ukraine would see massive influxes of capital in a long term rebuilding effort. Once Russia became unstable and energy in Western Europe becomes more stable, partly due to Ukrainian exports to them in the postwar recovery, I would expect the Western European powers like Germany and France to get off the sidelines. With very minimal perceived risk from Russia economically because they’ll have already gone through it, their participation becomes much more a positive endeavor from their viewpoint.
Posted by jeffsdad
Member since Mar 2007
24858 posts
Posted on 9/10/22 at 6:24 pm to
Politics contaminates the thread again...
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
15688 posts
Posted on 9/10/22 at 6:36 pm to
Wagner Group was in Izyum, and fled. There have been reports of Russian helicopters tracking and shooting deserters.

Little coming out of Russian news has been as accurate as Ukraine propaganda even. This has been fairly consistent since February.
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
15688 posts
Posted on 9/10/22 at 7:03 pm to
Russians have zero experience and likely no appetite for anything other than an authoritarian form of central government.

Huey P. Long would have loved to have that type of influence and longevity of his dynasty.
Posted by JayDeerTay84
Texas
Member since May 2013
9956 posts
Posted on 9/10/22 at 7:42 pm to
quote:

Just my untrained opinion:

If Ukraine regains all of its territory, stops there, and the war ends I think Ukraine becomes an EU and NATO member cementing the Eastern European flank with NATO troops & equipment and then a well experienced Ukrainian army that we will help rebuild and continue to train in coordination with NATO.

A humiliation of this level has to bring more domestic instability in Russia that I’m not sure anyone knows where goes. I suspect Belarus would get sucked into this as well. I think you’d see a greater effort to strengthen the NATO border with both countries in response.

Ukraine would see massive influxes of capital in a long term rebuilding effort. Once Russia became unstable and energy in Western Europe becomes more stable, partly due to Ukrainian exports to them in the postwar recovery, I would expect the Western European powers like Germany and France to get off the sidelines. With very minimal perceived risk from Russia economically because they’ll have already gone through it, their participation becomes much more a positive endeavor from their viewpoint.


I don't think Putin would allow that to happen without trying to fully mobilize and declare an official war.

These kind of people dont just let their shite get pushed in without acting out.
Posted by WeeWee
Member since Aug 2012
45554 posts
Posted on 9/10/22 at 7:58 pm to
quote:

I don't think Putin would allow that to happen without trying to fully mobilize and declare an official war.

These kind of people dont just let their shite get pushed in without acting out.


Russia is not going to mobilize overnight. It will have to train troops, pull equipment out of storage, get the stuff working again, organize it, and transport it to the front. That is going to take at least 3 to 4 months to accomplish. The second Russia officially declares war on the Ukraine is when the missiles start falling on the Crimean bridge and the gloves that the West has put on Ukraine will be off and the western aid will increase bigly. By the time the Russians got their new troops to the front the Ukrainians would have air dominance with Patriot missile systems and F16s. Putain realizes that. He is either going try to negotiate to stall the west from giving Ukraine more aid then launch another attack or he will pop a nuke.
Posted by WeeWee
Member since Aug 2012
45554 posts
Posted on 9/10/22 at 8:04 pm to

LINK

Russia is like the Texas A&M of nations just with less gay sex.
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8165 posts
Posted on 9/10/22 at 8:11 pm to
New maps from the best mapper out there. The best way to view these is to right click on the map, choose open in new tab, zoom in.

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1568737425597386752
quote:

1/ UTW – Operational Update: ZSU Counter Offensive in the Donbas, 04-10 Sep. The ZSU is engaged in what may likely become the most stunningly successful counteroffensive since the IDFs OPERATION GAZELLE during the 1973 Yom Kippur War. #ukrainecounteroffensive #UkraineWillWin

2/ The ZSU has successfully utilized the concept & practices of reflexive control to create maneuver space for a division-equivalent force to penetrate, exploit, and breakthrough the dangerously vulnerable left flank and rear of the Operational Group of Russian Forces Izyum.

3/ By taking the time to properly shape the conditions for success, the ZSU has in one-week undone months of VSRF operational progress. As of the timing of this assessment, ZSU forces have already pushed further north into northern Kharkiv Oblast toward Velykyi Burluk.

4/ Russian forces are now facing a dire situation in which they have clearly lost operational momentum & the strategic initiative. With the loss of Izyum, Kupyansk, & Velykyi Burluk the VSRF position in the Donbas is now in operational peril & likewise is strategically tenuous.

5/ On 14 April 2022 I surmised that the ZSU would execute a false attack against a portion of the defensive line while applying localized overwhelming force to a weakened defensive sector before the Russians could adjust forces to prevent a breakthrough.

6/ It appears the Ukrainians have been able to accomplish this. They will continue to pressure the VSRF as they withdraw & attempt to establish a defensive line to retain control of occupied territory. However, given the poor state Russian forces the ZSU will gain more ground.



Posted by molsusports
Member since Jul 2004
37519 posts
Posted on 9/10/22 at 8:15 pm to
Just in case I missed the obvious interpretation

That reflects all of the military hardware Ukraine has taken from Russia in the war?
Posted by JayDeerTay84
Texas
Member since May 2013
9956 posts
Posted on 9/10/22 at 8:16 pm to
quote:

Just in case I missed the obvious interpretation

That reflects all of the military hardware Ukraine has taken from Russia in the war?


Its a meme. Not accurate whatsoever. That would equal about 20 years of Russia's military spend if one was to assume it went to equipment only and not subject to waste and corruption.
Posted by PrecedentedTimes
Member since Dec 2020
3128 posts
Posted on 9/10/22 at 8:16 pm to
Jesus is that graph accurate? So they’ve given like 30% of their pre-sanctions GDP?

Holy frick. That’s like us giving 8 TRILLION dollars in one year
Posted by WeeWee
Member since Aug 2012
45554 posts
Posted on 9/10/22 at 8:25 pm to
quote:

Its a meme. Not accurate whatsoever. That would equal about 20 years of Russia's military spend if one was to assume it went to equipment only and not subject to waste and corruption.


It includes the cost of the equipment that Ukraine has captured from Russia as well as the cost of the equipment it inherited from the fall of the USSR.
Posted by JayDeerTay84
Texas
Member since May 2013
9956 posts
Posted on 9/10/22 at 8:25 pm to
quote:

It includes the cost of the equipment that Ukraine has captured from Russia as well as the cost of the equipment it inherited from the fall of the USSR.


Then its grossly overvalued for maximum meme affect.
This post was edited on 9/10/22 at 8:31 pm
Posted by Errerrerrwere
Member since Aug 2015
44412 posts
Posted on 9/10/22 at 8:34 pm to
quote:

or he will pop a nuke.



You are all in, buddy...

And completely out of your fricking mind

Posted by ned nederlander
Member since Dec 2012
5896 posts
Posted on 9/10/22 at 8:36 pm to
quote:

The ZSU is engaged in what may likely become the most stunningly successful counteroffensive since the IDFs OPERATION GAZELLE during the 1973 Yom Kippur War.


One day I hope to read a book that answers how the Russian Air Force completely shite the bed in this war. None of what the Ukraine is doing right now would be remotely possible if the real Russian Air Force was close to the paper Russian Air Force.

Ukraine has zero navy and an Air Force that is a fraction of Russians and yet is now dictating events on the battle field. It’s just incredible.
Posted by WeeWee
Member since Aug 2012
45554 posts
Posted on 9/10/22 at 8:37 pm to
quote:

Then its grossly overvalued for maximum meme effect.



Add up the costs of the bases that were built in Ukraine during the cold war, the stockpiles of artillery shells (Ukraine fought an artillery heavy trench war for over 8 years without producing a single artillery round that was how large its stockpile of ammo was) the thousands of tanks that Ukraine inherited from the USSR, the hundreds of fighter jets, the missiles and bombs it inherited, and millions of small arms with the ammunition to go with them. Then you factor in the amount of supplies that Ukraine has captured plus the equipment.
Posted by WeeWee
Member since Aug 2012
45554 posts
Posted on 9/10/22 at 8:38 pm to
quote:

or he will pop a nuke.


You are all in, buddy...

And completely out of your fricking mind



No I am trying to make OMLandshark melt harder than the Aggies.
Posted by WeeWee
Member since Aug 2012
45554 posts
Posted on 9/10/22 at 8:40 pm to
quote:

The ZSU is engaged in what may likely become the most stunningly successful counteroffensive since the IDFs OPERATION GAZELLE during the 1973 Yom Kippur War.


Well I am not surprised since the Arab coalition was trained by the USSR and the Russian leaders were trained by the USSR.

quote:

One day I hope to read a book that answers how the Russian Air Force completely shite the bed in this war. None of what the Ukraine is doing right now would be remotely possible if the real Russian Air Force was close to the paper Russian Air Force.

Ukraine has zero navy and an Air Force that is a fraction of Russians and yet is now dictating events on the battle field. It’s just incredible.



Oh it will be written and the title of that book will be How Not to Invade Your Neighbor by Vladimer Putin.
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