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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 7/18/22 at 6:26 pm to CitizenK
Posted on 7/18/22 at 6:26 pm to CitizenK
I know it sounds weird, but Russia needs the pipelines and Ukriane the money plus it would potentially cause backlash of Western support so yeah.
If you really get into the weeds on some things like this, ISIS was selling oil to both Syria and Iraq
LINK
If you really get into the weeds on some things like this, ISIS was selling oil to both Syria and Iraq
quote:
The group sells most of its crude directly to independent traders at the oil fields. In a highly organised system, Syrian and Iraqi buyers go directly to the oil fields with their trucks to buy crude
LINK
0
Posted on 7/18/22 at 6:30 pm to DabosDynasty
quote:
Well Ukraine could blow them up. I suspect they’ve been left alone because their flows supply european nations who’ve supported Ukraine and other whom are the leaders of the EU which they want to join.
Also, Russia is still paying Ukraine gas transit fees.
Posted on 7/18/22 at 6:48 pm to TBoy
quote:
It's unclear what the force majeure would be based on.
NordStream is claiming that there is a maintenance problem with the pipeline requiring parts to fix. However, the parts are in Canada and cannot be sold to or shipped to Russia to make the repairs. Thus, they are claiming force majeure. Gazprom cannot control the Western nations declaring and enforcing sanctions on Russia.
This is their reasoning, at least. There's no way of knowing if the problem is genuine or contrived for political expediency.
Posted on 7/18/22 at 7:06 pm to kingbob
ISW Update
quote:
Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu’s July 18 meeting with the commander of the Eastern group of forces Lieutenant General Rustam Muradov supports ISW’s assessment that Moscow will not prioritize an attack to seize Slovyansk in this stage of the operation but will instead focus on seizing Siversk and Bakhmut
quote:
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s likely effort to shield ethnic Russians from high levels of mobilization may trigger resistance in some of the ethnic enclaves that seem to be disproportionately bearing the burden of war
quote:
Key Takeaways
The Russian Ministry of Defense’s meeting with the leadership of the Eastern grouping of forces in Ukraine suggests that the Kremlin will not focus on seizing Slovyansk at this stage of the campaign but will instead prioritize attempting to seize Siversk and Bakhmut.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s likely effort to put the burden of supporting operations in Ukraine on ethnic minorities to avoid conducting a general mobilization of ethnic Russians may be sparking resistance in ethnic enclaves in Russia.
Russian forces conducted a series of ground attacks east of Siversk and south of Bakhmut.
Russian forces intensified efforts to advance on Avdiivka and conducted limited ground assaults along the Donetsk City-Avdiivka frontline.
Russian authorities are continuing to integrate occupied areas into the Russian trade economy.
Posted on 7/18/22 at 7:39 pm to StormyMcMan
quote:
The Russian Ministry of Defense’s meeting with the leadership of the Eastern grouping of forces in Ukraine suggests that the Kremlin will not focus on seizing Slovyansk at this stage of the campaign but will instead prioritize attempting to seize Siversk and Bakhmut.
LW said that his podnas took Siversk several days ago.
Bakmet gets Russians on a ridge NNE to SSW and just east of Siversk is a ridge which runs north and south thus a natural line of defense. The highway there is on top of the ridge as well.
Posted on 7/18/22 at 8:33 pm to CitizenK
He's also gonna not gonna like that it looks like his bawskis are going to have set their "days without shooting down our own Su-34" signs back to zero. Perhaps they're trigger-happy trying to shoot down HIMARS.
LINK
quote:
Russian forces appear to have shot down one of their own Su-34 Fullback strike fighters as it flew over the occupied Luhansk region in eastern Ukraine.
Videos published online on July 17 show what are reportedly air defense systems belonging either to Russian forces or separatist proxies from the so-called Luhansk People’s Republic firing into the night sky, followed by a large fireball that floats to the ground.
LINK
Posted on 7/18/22 at 8:49 pm to TigerDoc
Hahahaha only Russians are incompetent enough to shoot down their own aircraft. Good times.
Posted on 7/18/22 at 8:54 pm to LSUPilot07
It was apparently one of only 10 existing highly upgraded Su-34M's.
Oops.
Oops.
Posted on 7/18/22 at 8:58 pm to TigerDoc
5% of their total Su-34's have been shot down in Ukraine
Posted on 7/18/22 at 9:45 pm to TigerDoc
poor man's F35, it has wings and engines
Posted on 7/18/22 at 10:55 pm to CitizenK
quote:
We often discuss the all important supply lines, & in the case of Russia, the railways. RU is one of the few countries in the world & the only major power to still field Railway Troops (In NATO, only Italy has a small regiment w 2 railway engineer companies).
Erik Zimmerman writing on Twitter about Russias Railway troops
LINK
Posted on 7/18/22 at 10:58 pm to CitizenK
quote:
LW said that his podnas took Siversk several days ago.
I was wrong
The Ukrainians still hold the heights west of the town. The Russians/DNR Militia need to clear those positions before they occupy the town.
Posted on 7/18/22 at 11:01 pm to Malik Agar
Real heroes most certainly exist
This post was edited on 7/18/22 at 11:03 pm
Posted on 7/18/22 at 11:06 pm to Lima Whiskey
They have made recon in force but several miles away still
Posted on 7/18/22 at 11:42 pm to Lima Whiskey
Lol wow that’s a real scary looking piece of machinery there. Are those anti-aircraft guns from the Battle of Stalingrad? Also nice touch with the plywood armor there. An armored train in today’s era of warfare is about as useful as tits on a bull. Can still be derailed like any other train by one person with a well placed charge on the tracks and would still get blown to shite if hit with a precision guided weapon. A dozen HIMARS have completely fricked the Russian logistical system, not that they really had a decent one to begin with.
Posted on 7/19/22 at 12:05 am to LSUPilot07
Only a single track and larger staging areas than trucks would need. Presenting nice targets all the way around
Posted on 7/19/22 at 12:09 am to cypher
Here is likely a far better assessment of Russian oil exports than you'll get from the news media. Not that the value added products have not been a cash cow at all.
What is interesting is that the penalty for Indian refineries if products are shipped outside of the country. That's a wrinkle which I did not see coming.
I knew about the discounts but didn't realize it was $40 across the board. At today's closing that is around $20 per barrel net profit.
LINK
What is interesting is that the penalty for Indian refineries if products are shipped outside of the country. That's a wrinkle which I did not see coming.
I knew about the discounts but didn't realize it was $40 across the board. At today's closing that is around $20 per barrel net profit.
LINK
This post was edited on 7/19/22 at 12:26 am
Posted on 7/19/22 at 12:38 am to CitizenK
quote:
Only a single track and larger staging areas than trucks would need. Presenting nice targets all the way around
RR track is a sapper's dream. Just a couple of lb blocks of M112 and the rails are toast.
The more elegant solution is using M118* which is 4 half pound sheets of Primasheet flexible sheet explosive. Just set up a ribbon charge one on each rail about 5-6 feet apart. You can have the sheets cut beforehand for the standard Russian rail cross-section. Pick a place the trains run at full speed and crank it off when the engine is right in front of it and it will take days/weeks to clear all the mess and get the line usable again. I love ribbon charges because when done correctly they cut a steel beam so perfectly it looks like it was done with a torch.
* you can use M112 blocks but you have to do more cutting and molding and have to pay attention not to mold the explosives too thin or you won't get a full depth cut and it will just twist the beam. It might derail the train but if you are gonna blow something up do it right.
Posted on 7/19/22 at 1:21 am to Obtuse1
Like you said it would take a long time to clean up a derailment, particularly if its armor being shipped. How nice of a target 50 twisted tanks or a few dozen cars of ammunition would be for a HIMARS battery if they got the the ATACMS missiles. You could shut an entire supply line down for several weeks or even months if there is a rail bridge somewhere in range.
Posted on 7/19/22 at 6:22 am to LSUPilot07
When the Mud returns in Mid-October, Rus will be compelled to rely more than ever on its Railroad supply assets, because wheeled and tracked vehicle movement will be impaired.
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