re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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"There is several claims that Severodonetsk is fully under Ukrainian control"
Unconfirmed Information will see if it is true tomorrow.

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This sounds too good to be true, but ill post it and leave it for others to decide. He claims Severodonetsk is under UA control. And northern Donetsk... LINK

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There is a huge amount of ex special forces in the ranks of the foreign legion from all over the world, they form formidable fighting units.

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SEVERODONETSK / 1630 UTC 04 JUN/ Having determined to take the city, RU inadvisedly committed to a costly urban fight. Choosing to make a defensive stand in highly favorable urban terrain, UKR appears now to have lured RU forces into a fruitless diversion of men and materiel.

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This analysis examines lessons from Russian air, ground, cyber, and other domains following Moscow’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. It asks: What are some of the most important military lessons from the first three months of the war? What do these lessons suggest about the future of the war? The assessment focuses predominantly on the operational level of warfare, especially the planning and conduct of the military campaign.1 The operational level links the tactical utilization of forces to strategic objectives and includes such aspects as fire and maneuver, logistics, intelligence, command and control, and planning.2

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Russia utilized between 150,000 and 190,000 soldiers—including regular and irregular forces—for the initial invasion of Ukraine, a country of approximately 44 million people with an area of over 600,000 square kilometers.34 Those numbers translate into a force ratio of 4 Russian soldiers per 1,000 Ukrainian inhabitants.

There are no exact formulas for how many soldiers are required to hold conquered territory, but a force ratio of as many as 20 soldiers per 1,000 inhabitants has sometimes been necessary to pacify a hostile local population.35 Large numbers of troops are generally essential to establish basic law and order. By the end of World War II, for example, there were 101 U.S. soldiers per 1,000 inhabitants in the U.S.-controlled sector of Germany. More recently, there were 19 U.S. and European soldiers per 1,000 inhabitants in Bosnia in 1995 and 20 soldiers per 1,000 inhabitants in Kosovo in 2000.36

Lower ratios are generally insufficient to pacify hostile populations. In Iraq, for instance, the United States had 7 soldiers per 1,000 inhabitants and faced a persistent deadly insurgency—even with the help of Iraqi government forces and Sunni militia members. U.S. Army chief of staff General Eric K. Shinseki warned Congress in February 2003 that “several hundred thousand” troops would likely be needed to secure postwar Iraq.37 In Afghanistan, the United States had only 1 soldier per 1,000 inhabitants, along with the help of Afghan National Security Forces. With such small numbers, the United States and its NATO allies faced a prolonged insurgency that led to the overthrow of the Afghan government in 2021.38 The force ratio of Russian soldiers in Ukraine was far too small to hold territory—including cities—for long.

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Nevertheless, cyber was largely a bust for Russia in the war. The Russian military faced considerable operational challenges, in part because of outside state and non-state assistance to Ukraine to identify cyber and electronic warfare attacks, attribute the perpetrators, and assist with remediation. Some Western governments, including U.S. Cyber Command and the National Security Agency, provided help to the Ukrainian government. As General Paul Nakasone, commander of U.S. Cyber Command and director of the National Security Agency, remarked, “Coordinating with the Ukrainians in an effort to help them harden their networks, we deployed a hunt team who sat side-by-side with our partners to gain critical insights that have increased homeland defense for both the United States and Ukraine.”51

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If this is true, this is a major defeat for the Russians.

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If this is true, this is a major defeat for the Russians.

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Some folks around here are going to be big mad if this is true after they were told it could be part of the strategy, unlike the Russian retreats which were just running.

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The implications are insane, so let’s say an army was told to attempt a river crossing and it failed, then a second and third command given to attempt the crossing again and again with no regard for men and materials losses but the 2nd and 3rd commands were not actually given by that 1st army command but by the other opposing side. Fog of war on steroids.

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