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Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 5/31/22 at 2:38 pm to SteelerBravesDawg
Posted on 5/31/22 at 2:38 pm to SteelerBravesDawg
quote:
@Ryan_Bohl
Russia is lowering its expectations as to what it can achieve in this phase of the war in an ever-shrinking ambition. But the emphasis is on 'this phase' -- Moscow's overall goal to dominate Ukraine, one way or another, has not changed.
0
Posted on 5/31/22 at 2:39 pm to Abstract Queso Dip
NBC nightly news fits my definition. I was mostly just responding to a couple of posts suggesting there is some political intent to reduce coverage of the story.
Posted on 5/31/22 at 3:16 pm to LSU_historian
quote:
Reports I am seeing say Ukraine is retreating from Severodonetsk to Lysychansk
Looks like the Ukrainians are looking to hold the Russians in place while they focus on Kherson and cutting the Russian GLOC to Severodonetsk.
quote:LINK
Satellite imagery from the Inhulets river taken on May 30th by
@Planet
shows two pontoon bridges set up near the village of Velyka Artakove and evidence of a large force crossing the river. This position has already been bombarded and is known to Russian troops in the area.
It looks like the Ukrainians are making a run at Kozats'ke which would cut the Russian GLOC to Kherson. It's only 70 km from where the Ukrainians crossed the Imhulet's river to Kozats'ke and the Ukrainians have already made significance progress down the T2207 highway. Also according to militaryland.net deployment map there are no major concentrations of Russian forces between the Ukrainians and Kozats'ke. If the Ukrainians are able to reach Kozats'ke and cross the dam to Nova Kakhova this could be huge. They can cut off the forces in Kherson and regain control of the inlet for the North Crimean Canal which is probably the most strategic asset in all of eastern Ukraine.
This post was edited on 5/31/22 at 3:53 pm
Posted on 5/31/22 at 3:41 pm to WeeWee
More evidence of Russian morale issues
https://www.thedailybeast.com/top-russian-military-brass-caught-venting-youre-fricked-putinmotherfricker
https://www.thedailybeast.com/top-russian-military-brass-caught-venting-youre-fricked-putinmotherfricker
quote:
Two high-ranking Russian military officers have been caught shite-talking Kremlin leadership in unimaginably colorful language. The two colonels blast the defense minister and lash out at that “motherfricker” Vladimir Putin for his poor strategy in Ukraine, according to a leaked recording of a phone conversation.
While Western and Ukrainian intelligence agencies have routinely reported on plunging morale among rank-and-file Russian troops fighting in Ukraine, many of whom have been heard complaining of dysfunction in intercepted communications, the latest audio appears to be the first to expose frustrations among high-ranking officers.
quote:
“There are horrible losses of our guys, frick. And you know, I am familiar with military history a bit, and I compare this to the fricking Soviet-Finnish war of 1939-1940. It’s fricking one and the same,” said Vlasov, referring to a war in which the Soviets are estimated to have lost 126,875 troops.
He goes on to take aim at Shoigu, whom he describes as an “incompetent fricking layman.”
“He’s a layman in his work. This is not his fricking thing. He’s just a fricking showman,” the man identified as Vlasov says.
Kovtun responds in kind, saying, “Shoigu is fricking shite. [There are] no contracted forces. Of course not! Why would there fricking be? They paid them 30,000 rubles [$490], where are they going to get contractees?”
Posted on 5/31/22 at 3:42 pm to Palmetto98
quote:
So is Russia about win?
Depends on your definition of win.
If you consider capturing roughly half of Severodonetsk a win even though the Ukrainians are still able to shell the town to ruins from the other side of the river and the Russians have encircled it yet a win. Then yes. If you are using the definition of denatizifying Ukraine, capturing eastern Ukraine, securing the entire Donbas region, or encircling the Ukrainian military. Then no Russia is not about to win. Per the public deployment maps Ukraine has withdrawn all but 5 brigades from the Severodentsk and Lysychan'sk area.
This post was edited on 5/31/22 at 3:46 pm
Posted on 5/31/22 at 4:13 pm to WeeWee
quote:
If you consider capturing roughly half of Severodonetsk a win
Wasn't it breathlessly reported on here that Severodonetsk had fallen and Russia controlled all of the Donbas?
Russia must be taking a break to allow all the Ukraine forces to fall back since they really do not want to harm anyone....
Posted on 5/31/22 at 4:56 pm to ned nederlander
quote:
Other reports on Twitter say Ukrainian forces withdrawing from the town. This will put Luhansk under Russian control.
At this point, Sievierdonetsk will be a victory for the Russians on paper and possibly help with morale issues. However, Sievierdonetsk is not much of a military objective. Militarily speaking Lyschans'k is more important. It is the city that is located on the high ground, keeps the Ukrainians within artillery range of the major road and rail intersections as well as the only airport in Sieverdonetsk, and gives Ukraine a launching point for a counterattack into the Luhansk oblast. If the Russians cannot complete their encirclement then it is not much of a victory. However, if Russia is able to complete their encirclement and or force the Ukrainians to abandon Lyschans'k then it will give control of the Luhansk oblast to Russia and give Russia a major boost in their ability to defend against any Ukrainian counterattack on Luhansk.
Posted on 5/31/22 at 6:31 pm to RLDSC FAN
Biden admin to send Multiple Launch Rocket Systems to Ukraine in $40B aid package
The approval comes after President Biden said Monday the U.S. would not send rocket systems to Ukraine that could potentially reach into Russia, though he was referring to longer-range ATACMS missiles, which have a range of 185 miles.
The Pentagon reportedly plans to send the shorter-range missiles, but these are still longer than what the Ukrainians are currently using to fend off Russia’s military. The new HIMARS, expected to be announced tomorrow, fires at a range of about twice that of the current M777 Howitzer.
Fox News
The approval comes after President Biden said Monday the U.S. would not send rocket systems to Ukraine that could potentially reach into Russia, though he was referring to longer-range ATACMS missiles, which have a range of 185 miles.
The Pentagon reportedly plans to send the shorter-range missiles, but these are still longer than what the Ukrainians are currently using to fend off Russia’s military. The new HIMARS, expected to be announced tomorrow, fires at a range of about twice that of the current M777 Howitzer.
Fox News
Posted on 5/31/22 at 6:46 pm to cypher
quote:
The approval comes after President Biden said Monday the U.S. would not send rocket systems to Ukraine that could potentially reach into Russia, though he was referring to longer-range ATACMS missiles, which have a range of 185 miles.
That thing is really able to reach out and touch somebody. Which kind of makes me wonder why Biden has not sent it earlier. We all know how he likes to reach out and touch people.
Posted on 5/31/22 at 6:55 pm to cypher
why on earth would they announce this shite like this?
Posted on 5/31/22 at 7:03 pm to WeeWee
From today’s ISW report. Interesting point regarding Kherson being the only population center on the west bank of the Dnipro River.
LINK
“Moscow’s concentration on seizing Severodonetsk and Donbas generally continues to create vulnerabilities for Russia in Ukraine’s vital Kherson Oblast, where Ukrainian counter-offensives continue. Kherson is critical terrain because it is the only area of Ukraine in which Russian forces hold ground on the west bank of the Dnipro River. If Russia is able to retain a strong lodgment in Kherson when fighting stops it will be in a very strong position from which to launch a future invasion. If Ukraine regains Kherson, on the other hand, Ukraine will be in a much stronger position to defend itself against future Russian attack. This strategic calculus should in principle lead Russia to allocate sufficient combat power to hold Kherson. But Russian President Vladimir Putin has chosen instead to concentrate all the forces and resources that can be scraped together in a desperate and bloody push to seize areas of eastern Ukraine that will give him largely symbolic gains.“
LINK
“Moscow’s concentration on seizing Severodonetsk and Donbas generally continues to create vulnerabilities for Russia in Ukraine’s vital Kherson Oblast, where Ukrainian counter-offensives continue. Kherson is critical terrain because it is the only area of Ukraine in which Russian forces hold ground on the west bank of the Dnipro River. If Russia is able to retain a strong lodgment in Kherson when fighting stops it will be in a very strong position from which to launch a future invasion. If Ukraine regains Kherson, on the other hand, Ukraine will be in a much stronger position to defend itself against future Russian attack. This strategic calculus should in principle lead Russia to allocate sufficient combat power to hold Kherson. But Russian President Vladimir Putin has chosen instead to concentrate all the forces and resources that can be scraped together in a desperate and bloody push to seize areas of eastern Ukraine that will give him largely symbolic gains.“
This post was edited on 5/31/22 at 7:28 pm
Posted on 5/31/22 at 7:10 pm to ned nederlander
And so goes Kherson likely also goes control of Crimea’s water supply. Below is a pretty interesting read on Crimea’s water supply. About 85% comes via a canal from the Dnipro river. Following the annexation of Crimea, the Uke’s dammed the river. Before the invasion and implosion of the dam by Russia, it was spending $3.7 billion to bring water in via truck. The southern theater of this war is going to be awfully interesting in June. I’m pretty skeptical Ukraine can really retake most land to the February 24 border but we shall see.
LINK
LINK
Posted on 5/31/22 at 7:13 pm to ned nederlander
To me this is a degree of confirmation a push for concessions is about to come from France & Germany.
Posted on 5/31/22 at 7:20 pm to ned nederlander
quote:
If Russia is able to retain a strong lodgment in Kherson when fighting stops it will be in a very strong position from which to launch a future invasion.
1. Putin is obviously maneuvering to get full control of the Luhansk oblast on the battlefield and pushing for Europe to force Ukraine into a ceasefire behind the scenes. However, I do not think that Ukraine agrees to a ceasefire now only helps Russia. Ukraine has spent months training reserves and taking a ceasefire deal before using them would have Zelinski in hot water at home real fast and his military might even attempt a coup because they are not ready to quit.
2. Even if Zelinski was stupid enough to make a deal with Putin. Ukraine will not accept any ceasefire that allows Russia keep a foot hold on the west side on the Dnieper river.
Posted on 5/31/22 at 7:27 pm to ned nederlander
quote:
Interesting point regarding Kherson
I found the next points to be more interesting.
quote:
The Ukrainian leadership has apparently wisely avoided matching Putin’s mistaken prioritization. Kyiv could have committed more reserves and resources to the defense of Severodonetsk, and its failure to do so has drawn criticism.[1] Ukrainian forces are now apparently withdrawing from Severodonetsk rather than fighting to the end—a factor that has allowed the Russians to move into the city relatively rapidly after beginning their full-scale assault.[2] Both the decision to avoid committing more resources to saving Severodonetsk and the decision to withdraw from it were strategically sound, however painful. Ukraine must husband its more limited resources and focus on regaining critical terrain rather than on defending ground whose control will not determine the outcome of the war or the conditions for the renewal of war.
Sound Ukrainian prioritization of counter-offensive and defensive operations pushed the Russians almost out of artillery range of Kharkiv City and have stopped the Russian advances from Izyum—both of which are more important accomplishments than the defense of Severodonetsk. Ukraine’s leadership has had to make incredibly difficult choices in this war and has generally made the right ones, at least at the level of strategic prioritization and in the pace, scale, and ambitiousness of its counter-offensives. That is why Ukraine still has a good chance to stop and then reverse the gains Russia is currently making.
Ukraine is ceding giving Putin a symbolic victory to allow themselves to take advantage of opportunities elsewhere.
Posted on 5/31/22 at 7:31 pm to WeeWee
I looked at the map several weeks ago and suggested Ukraine do what they are doing. There’s no need to throw away good men for nothing. Defend a line and let Russia hit the line over and over while you flank them.
Posted on 5/31/22 at 7:43 pm to DabosDynasty
quote:
To me this is a degree of confirmation a push for concessions is about to come from France & Germany.
It may also be a rebuttal to a U.S. element in favor of concessions exemplified by a NYTimes editorial entitled "The War in Ukraine Is Getting Complicated, and America Isn’t Ready".
The Ukrainians didn't take kindly to the editorial. The Daily Mail has good coverage of it.
Daily Mail
Posted on 5/31/22 at 7:46 pm to ned nederlander
quote:
And so goes Kherson likely also goes control of Crimea’s water supply.
The city of Kherson does not control Crimea's water supply. Kozats'ke and Nova Kakhovka control Crimea's water supply. As I posted earlier, the Ukrainian military is moving swiftly towards Kozats'ke, and then likely to cross the dam to Nova Kakhovka. If Ukraine control Nova Kakhovka then they can shutdown the intake for the North Crimean Canal and it would dry up in a few days time. If Ukraine is able to reach Kozats'ke, but unable to cross the dam and control Nova Kakhovka then it can at least blow the dam and drain the reservoir which would serve two purposes. First, it would deny Russia the ability to use the North Crimean Canal for years to come, and it would flood all trenches and other defensives the Russians have dug in Kherson.
quote:
I’m pretty skeptical Ukraine can really retake most land to the February 24 border
Really? Have you looked at the deployment maps? Putin has stripped the Kherson oblast of most of its defenses. Russia only has 2 brigades in all of the Kherson Oblast and 8 brigades in Crimea. The map maybe colored red because a few Russian squads control the villages, but Russia does not have any significant force in the area to stop the Ukrainian drive on Kozats'ke.
Posted on 5/31/22 at 7:59 pm to cypher
quote:
It may also be a rebuttal to a U.S. element in favor of concessions exemplified by a NYTimes editorial entitled "The War in Ukraine Is Getting Complicated, and America Isn’t Ready".
The Ukrainians didn't take kindly to the editorial. The Daily Mail has good coverage of it.
Have a feeling we’ll see shortly. If the Ukrainians are ceding Severodonetsk and allowing for Putin to begin the expected negotiation from “strength”, Macron and Schroeder will answer this for us.
Posted on 5/31/22 at 7:59 pm to cypher
quote:
The new HIMARS, expected to be announced tomorrow, fires at a range of about twice that of the current M777 Howitzer.
The package is certainly good news for the Ukrainians, but this is a weapon system that doesn’t introduce a new capability, is inferior (for their purposes) to what they already have, and while it replenishes some of the losses they’ve sustained, it doesn’t make they stronger than they were on day one.
One of the consistent problems with our military aid packages, is that we’re not sending enough hardware.
This post was edited on 5/31/22 at 8:12 pm
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