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re: JP Morgan study on how pointless the lockdown is/was

Posted on 5/20/20 at 3:15 pm to
Posted by RogerTheShrubber
Juneau, AK
Member since Jan 2009
296742 posts
Posted on 5/20/20 at 3:15 pm to
There really hasnt been conclusive proof that this shutdown has done anything besides destroy many small businesses.

The incredible price paid to feel a small amount of security.

Getting ready for a technocracy, which will look a lot like this shutdown.
Posted by NIH
Member since Aug 2008
119958 posts
Posted on 5/20/20 at 3:22 pm to
Rocket, what’s your take on shutdowns continuing ?
Posted by Vacherie Saint
Member since Aug 2015
46112 posts
Posted on 5/20/20 at 3:22 pm to
Is there an article? Or just tweets?
Posted by ell_13
Member since Apr 2013
87203 posts
Posted on 5/20/20 at 3:45 pm to
Posted by GurleyGirl
Georgia
Member since Nov 2015
14434 posts
Posted on 5/20/20 at 3:50 pm to
It's good to see someone with credibility challenging the overreaction.
None of these extreme measures were implemented during the Obama administration H1V1 pandemic in spite the fact that the average age of the Swine Flu victims was 40 and over 1800 children died; there were no school closings, nada. And you can bet that there won't be an economic shutdown for the next pandemic if it occurs during a Democrat administration. Yea, this crap was mostly political with the Democrats desperately hoping that a crashed economy will be enough to get Trump voted out of office.
Posted by OweO
Plaquemine, La
Member since Sep 2009
120204 posts
Posted on 5/20/20 at 4:05 pm to
The more I think about it, the more I keep going back to the time of all of this. There was a report about this on what? December 31, 2019.. As January went on, there was more and more talk about this shite. By what? Mid February the talk about it coming to the US started to increase.. Maybe before that, but by mid February, we were aware that it was going to impact the US. Mid march shite started to lock down.

I have no evidence of this so I don't know for sure, but I think this virus was here before it was being reported.

Louisiana shut down in mid march.. And it is said Mardi Gras is the reason there were so many cases in and around New Orleans. So if people who had it came here and spread it around. If they were from the US, how long did they have it for?

In the US, out of all the people who tested positive 6% died from it and most of them were older. Now I am not saying it shouldn't matter just because they are old. Not at all. We are talking about people's loved ones, but from the beginning we were told older people and people with pre-existing conditions were at risk.

Looking back and I know its easy to say "they should have done this" after the fact, but maybe the way to do this was to start off by protecting our elders and people with health issues without having to shut shite down.

With that said, I refuse to get into the party blame game. Its an election year and you have no idea who is doing what. This situation might have been used to make it political. One side might do one thing then say something else to make it look as if the other party is the one responsible for this or that.

This is just my opinion, but if it wasn't an election year I think this would have been handled a lot different.
Posted by Klark Kent
Houston via BR
Member since Jan 2008
73206 posts
Posted on 5/20/20 at 4:10 pm to
so, the media wouldn't have over reacted if it wasn't an election year?


Posted by HeadSlash
TEAM LIVE BADASS - St. GEORGE
Member since Aug 2006
54920 posts
Posted on 5/20/20 at 4:11 pm to
quote:

Government will never admit that they overreacted.


Media forced Big Orange's hand. He was in a no win situation.
Posted by rocket31
Member since Jan 2008
41887 posts
Posted on 5/20/20 at 4:17 pm to
my theory is that we are opening everything now to minimize the winter spike that the "experts" are predicting. once cases climb it will be easier to lock down again
:
with that said, hope im wrong and we can just return to normal. this is all really silly
Posted by Hurricane Mike
Member since Jun 2008
20059 posts
Posted on 5/20/20 at 4:29 pm to
quote:

has a devastating piece
Posted by wm72
Brooklyn
Member since Mar 2010
9031 posts
Posted on 5/20/20 at 4:34 pm to
There are many valid arguments to be made that lock downs in many areas were a lot more severe than needed.

However, I have no idea how looking at R0 after the lockdowns have already finished really proves anything?

Wasn't the entire logic of the lockdowns to slow the spread -- and that limited testing at the time of the lockdowns really left everyone guessing as to how widespread infections were?

Seems like you would need examples of places with similar % of initial cases and demographics that were never locked down to prove that the lockdowns are not the reason that the R0 is now staying level.



This post was edited on 5/20/20 at 5:20 pm
Posted by Fientist
God’s Country
Member since Dec 2019
9 posts
Posted on 5/20/20 at 4:38 pm to
quote:

No, JP Morgan Chase received 13B in 2008.


That’s a little misleading. All SIFI banks took additional capital, regardless of need, to prevent a run on the weak banks that needed the funding.
This post was edited on 5/20/20 at 4:44 pm
Posted by el Gaucho
He/They
Member since Dec 2010
58492 posts
Posted on 5/20/20 at 4:40 pm to
I wish there was some kind of quarantine safe house we could put the Karens and kevins that are afraid of the virus so that they would be safe


Maybe like a gulag
Posted by ell_13
Member since Apr 2013
87203 posts
Posted on 5/20/20 at 5:02 pm to
quote:

However, I have no idea how looking at R0 after the lockdowns have already finished really proves anything?

Wasn't entire logic of the lockdowns was to slow the spread -- that limited testing at the time of the lockdowns really left everyone guessing as to how widespread infections were?
Based on how long it’s actually been here and antibodies testing, the Ro wasn’t as high as originally thought. Even though it had plenty of time to spread thoroughly and the death rate has proven to be exponentially lower than initial estimates and studies.

As far as the initial lockdown, the analyst admits it was warranted due to lack of solid information and being conservative. But that it should have been lifted much sooner and that at this point, it has no affect on bumping up the Ro number. Basically, from the beginning this could have been mitigated by simply washing hands and social distancing without shutting down any businesses.
Posted by Arkapigdiesel
Faulkner County
Member since Jun 2009
15421 posts
Posted on 5/20/20 at 5:14 pm to
quote:

This will anger the board’s liberals

Liberals stare common sense and logic right in the face, and do just the opposite.
Posted by fr33manator
Baton Rouge
Member since Oct 2010
133411 posts
Posted on 5/20/20 at 5:20 pm to
They could have just stayed at home and let the rest of us get on with our lives
This post was edited on 5/20/20 at 5:20 pm
Posted by GoCrazyAuburn
Member since Feb 2010
39704 posts
Posted on 5/20/20 at 5:29 pm to
quote:

There really hasnt been conclusive proof that this shutdown has done anything besides destroy many small businesses.


I really would be interested to see what the legit impact of the lockdown actually was as far as the spread and everything goes.
Posted by Penrod
Member since Jan 2011
52192 posts
Posted on 5/20/20 at 5:31 pm to
I don’t trust JP Morgan if they don’t know what R0 is. And the guy who made that graph didn’t know. R0 for a given place never changes. Once a few people get infected it reduces Ri from the initial value (R0) to something lower.
Posted by Penrod
Member since Jan 2011
52192 posts
Posted on 5/20/20 at 5:37 pm to
quote:

Anyone not a Democrat could have told you this from the beginning.

Were these the same people saying it’s just the flu? Let’s face it, a lot of people patting themselves on the back right now made all kinds of predictions that turned out false - like we’ll have less than 60,000 dead in the US. Say what you want about exaggerated death counts, but we’ve passed 60k for sure.

We needed the lockdown to flatten the curve and get the attention of Americans. Some states never should have locked down, because they are rural; some locked down too soon, like California; and most stayed locked down too long. But a short lockdown was a good thing.
Posted by taylork37
Member since Mar 2010
15631 posts
Posted on 5/20/20 at 5:43 pm to
You mean to tell me a global financial services firm (aka big bank) is arguing heavily that the shut down was overly bad for business?

This is profound.
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