re: Italy’s death toll climbs 627 in last 24hrs

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Yea idk why, but Italy is getting hit harder than anyone else. At this point im just starting to believe that something in the Italians' physiology just makes them more susceptible to the virus than everyone else. I know that doesnt make sense, but neither does saying "they just have a lot of old people" either.

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There may also be a problem in reporting. Without CV, a certain average number of people die every day. What is it in Italy? How many of these covid deaths are where the patient is actually dying from something else, but because they were CV positive (pretty much everyone there is at this point), they are throwing them into the special CV numbers.

Example, Andre's fate already had him scheduled to drop dead of a heart attack on Wednesday. And he did. But he was also CV+. So his death gets counted as Covid.

Where can we see avg numbers of deaths per day, see how that relates to the covid deaths, and how they my be overlapping, and get a better picture?

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Why do people use Italy as an example. That region with the highest case and death rates also had direct flights from Wuhan for Chinese workers. That is the DIRECT link for Italy. It is an outlier. Same with Iran. Iran has many construction projects run by the Chinese.

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Yeah, not sure I understand the thought as well. If I were to guess, we're one of the highest BMI of all 1st world countries and I would guess take more health related Rx than anyone in the world. We're not exactly spring chickens here no matter the age bracket.

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Medical supplies that are stockpiled in a warehouse will start decaying and be useless when the next apocalypse arrives. Don't see hospitals bulk purchasing stuff like that after this is over.

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I disagree. They'll have a FIFO system in place so nothing gets wasted. They will simply build up a much higher inventory and associated storage space for it all. So there will be some bulk purchases up front.

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Italy has one of the worst aging populations in the world, bummer for them.

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This keeps being used to hand wave away why the Italian problems are something systemic that don’t apply here.

No. Take away the percentage difference in the age group proportion between the US and Italy from Italy’s death count and you still end up with scary numbers far in excess of expected flu mortalities.



The difference is sociological, not biological. More people living in multi family and multi generation units. More public transit, etc. These allowed it to spread widely even before officials knew there to be a problem.


But it also illustrates why officials here “over reacted” to limit the speed of the spread. Main reason why they are an outlier is because other nations took notice and were fearful of following in their steps.


If you wait for it to entrench and be a problem before reacting, it’s very very difficult to change the trajectory of the trend.

Just a reminder to everyone in both good and bad news. Italy only went full shelter in place 8 days ago. This is a 14-day disease on the short end. As long as 21 in some cases.

Bad news is we will start to see really high numbers and growth in the next 8-10 days. The good news is this isn’t an indication at all that the lockdown isn’t working. Next weekend’s numbers will tell that story

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The difference is sociological, not biological. More people living in multi family and multi generation units. More public transit, etc. These allowed it to spread widely even before officials knew there to be a problem.

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Agreed.

We have noticed that hypertension is highly correlated with death rate. 75% of deaths have been people with hypertension. Germany and Italy have both have similar hypertension rates in adults. ~55%.

However, the huge difference between the two is cultural. Socially, Germany and Italy could not be further apart. Germans are very distant, but Italians are incredibly friendly and touchy feely. Germans, like us, herd our elderly into nursing homes and assisted living effectively isolating them. Italians, as you mentioned, are more traditional in that grandparents will very often be in the same household as their super spreader grandchildren.

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How well enforced is it?

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Japanese people seems to be immortal.

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This baw disagrees.

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This will always be the retort won't it? Can't just admit this is a serious thing.

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So you cant be taking it serious AND ask questions? I mean our whole plan was based around projections so don’t you think it makes sense to evaluate actual data?

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but Japanese people seems to be immortal

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<——My Pops reported differently from his experience on Okinawa in ‘45.