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re: Italy reports 793 new deaths

Posted on 3/21/20 at 12:39 pm to
Posted by otowntiger
O-Town
Member since Jan 2004
16924 posts
Posted on 3/21/20 at 12:39 pm to
quote:

taly is a total anomaly on the world stage.
lets hope it stays the anomaly. I hope the US isn’t about to say: ‘hold my beer”.
Posted by Ed Osteen
Member since Oct 2007
59350 posts
Posted on 3/21/20 at 12:39 pm to
quote:

Actually 21.6% over 64
US is 16%


Which is a big jump, especially having more in the 80-90 age range than the majority of the world

Not sure why your stat doesn’t mean it can’t be 23% at 65 though
This post was edited on 3/21/20 at 12:44 pm
Posted by PearlJam
NotBeardEaves
Member since Aug 2014
13908 posts
Posted on 3/21/20 at 12:39 pm to
quote:

not population density or age as the rest of the EU isn’t dealing with this level of severity
Yet. They may still.
Posted by The Egg
Houston, TX
Member since Dec 2004
83930 posts
Posted on 3/21/20 at 12:40 pm to
I think you might see a surge in SK soon, just me though

*fricking autocorrect
This post was edited on 3/21/20 at 12:41 pm
Posted by Batman Chalupa
Member since Feb 2020
387 posts
Posted on 3/21/20 at 12:41 pm to
Has it been established why so many deaths in Italy compared to the rest of the world?
Posted by SlowFlowPro
With populists, expect populism
Member since Jan 2004
481219 posts
Posted on 3/21/20 at 12:41 pm to
quote:

I think you might see a dude in SK soon, just me though



Posted by The Egg
Houston, TX
Member since Dec 2004
83930 posts
Posted on 3/21/20 at 12:43 pm to
I hate you
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
135363 posts
Posted on 3/21/20 at 12:43 pm to
quote:

I thought the lockdown was supposed to bend the curve?
The increase in testing is resulting in more cases being identified, NOT that there are more cases.

This was repeated numerous times last week to expect a huge jump in identified cases as testing numbers increased.
Posted by Salmon
I helped draft the email
Member since Feb 2008
86734 posts
Posted on 3/21/20 at 12:44 pm to
Both are probably correct FWIW

Posted by castorinho
13623 posts
Member since Nov 2010
88345 posts
Posted on 3/21/20 at 12:45 pm to
quote:

The increase in testing is resulting in more cases being identified, NOT that there are more cases.

This was repeated numerous times last week to expect a huge jump in identified cases as testing numbers increased.
increased testing isn't affecting raw death numbers
Posted by Kentucker
Rabbit Hash, KY
Member since Apr 2013
20055 posts
Posted on 3/21/20 at 12:46 pm to
quote:

Has it been established why so many deaths in Italy compared to the rest of the world?



Old age, heavy smoking and other underlying causes are currently the best guess. Heavy smoking is also being attributed to the disproportionate number of older men dying. 70% of Italian deaths are men.
Posted by SlowFlowPro
With populists, expect populism
Member since Jan 2004
481219 posts
Posted on 3/21/20 at 12:46 pm to
i couldn't pass on the opportunity to merge post with gif like that

but i agree with you. SK has things working for it, like being effectively an island, history responding to viruses, culture, etc

this is our first pandemic in 100 years. it's like their 3rd in 10 or so
Posted by Kentucker
Rabbit Hash, KY
Member since Apr 2013
20055 posts
Posted on 3/21/20 at 12:49 pm to
quote:

this is our first pandemic in 100 years.


The first with a novel virus since 1918. Old friends like H1N1 have caused recent pandemics.
This post was edited on 3/21/20 at 12:50 pm
Posted by Number 9 Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2020
681 posts
Posted on 3/21/20 at 12:49 pm to
One ranking;
One through ten
Spain.
Italy.
Iceland.
Japan.
Switzerland.
Sweden.
Australia.
Singapore.
Norway.
Israel.
Posted by dagrippa
Saigon
Member since Nov 2004
12171 posts
Posted on 3/21/20 at 12:49 pm to
quote:

What in the frick is going on over there?


Their hospitals are overwhelmed. Some of the dead would be alive if not for the spike in cases.
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
135363 posts
Posted on 3/21/20 at 12:51 pm to
quote:

increased testing isn't affecting raw death numbers
I didn't say it did. Thanks.

My comment was in response to the "bending the curve" comment by another poster.

The "curve" that we keep hearing about that needs bending doesn't refer to death numbers.

It refers to the number of infection cases.
Posted by nobigdeal69
baton rouge
Member since Nov 2009
2287 posts
Posted on 3/21/20 at 12:51 pm to
quote:

Italy has only been locked down for 12 days or so. Think the average time from infection to death is 18 days so you aren’t really expecting to see these numbers go down yet. Italy got way behind on testing and this thing was overwhelming their system by the time they figured out what was happening.


I really hope this is the case.
Posted by Number 9 Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2020
681 posts
Posted on 3/21/20 at 12:52 pm to
quote:


Which is a big jump, especially having more in the 80-90 age range than the majority of the world

Not sure why your stat doesn’t mean it can’t be 23% at 65 though


I posted under someone saying 25%.
I just quickly googled and posted two stats. One for Italy and one for the US to bring some context to the discussion.
Posted by Unknown_Poster
Member since Jun 2013
5758 posts
Posted on 3/21/20 at 12:53 pm to
quote:


Their hospitals are overwhelmed. Some of the dead would be alive if not for the spike in cases.

This is why people relying too much on the mortality rate are using flawed logic. The key number is capacity of the health care system. Even if someone does not die, if they require hospitalization/ventilator then it's a huge issue. Also keep in mind Italy is about a week ahead of us on the curve. Next week in the U.S. will be fairly telling of how we can handle things.
Posted by Number 9 Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2020
681 posts
Posted on 3/21/20 at 12:54 pm to
quote:


The "curve" that we keep hearing about that needs bending doesn't refer to death numbers.


The two key numbers as I see it are the death numbers and those requiring critical or intensive care. Numbers showing the total confirmed cases are totally dependent on testing that is not consistent.
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