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re: Italy reports 793 new deaths

Posted on 3/21/20 at 12:55 pm to
Posted by stout
Porte du Lafitte
Member since Sep 2006
184625 posts
Posted on 3/21/20 at 12:55 pm to
quote:

lso keep in mind Italy is about a week ahead of us on the curve. Next week in the U.S. will be fairly telling of how we can handle things.


People keep saying this but people never post numbers of where we are vs where they were in the same time frame.

Virus deaths: Italy to USA
Day 3: 7 to 9
Day 6: 17 to 15
Day 9: 41 to 26
Day 12: 107 to 41
Day 15: 233 to 68
Day 18: 631 to 150

We are WAY behind where they were in the same time frames
This post was edited on 3/21/20 at 12:55 pm
Posted by Salmon
I helped draft the email
Member since Feb 2008
86734 posts
Posted on 3/21/20 at 12:55 pm to
I’m not in healthcare, but I assume there is some correlation to hospital rate and mortality rate

Posted by MojoGuyPan
Intercession City, Florida
Member since Jun 2018
2797 posts
Posted on 3/21/20 at 12:56 pm to
quote:

You’ve seen similar spreads in New York/New Jersey as well as New Orleans.

Posted by Ed Osteen
Member since Oct 2007
59350 posts
Posted on 3/21/20 at 12:57 pm to
quote:

It's part of the modern silk road to Europe, that gateway to Europe basically. It's no coincidence and it's not bc of an aging population. Italy sold itself to China.


So just so we are clear, a larger aging population than most is not a factor in the high number of deaths in your expert opinion
Posted by Roll Tide Ravens
Birmingham, AL
Member since Nov 2015
51961 posts
Posted on 3/21/20 at 12:57 pm to
quote:

China’s reporting can’t be seen as reliable.


I know, I am justing saying that if you take China's numbers at face value, it shows how much of an outlier Italy is so far.
Posted by Number 9 Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2020
681 posts
Posted on 3/21/20 at 12:59 pm to
quote:


I know, I am justing saying that if you take China's numbers at face value, it shows how much of an outlier Italy is so far.


It doesn’t add up. Chinese migrants causing more deaths in Italy than there are in China???
Posted by Clark14
Earth
Member since Dec 2014
27162 posts
Posted on 3/21/20 at 1:01 pm to
Is there any data on Russia?

I haven't seen any so I've upped my vodka intake.
Posted by bigpapamac
Mobile, AL
Member since Oct 2007
22610 posts
Posted on 3/21/20 at 1:02 pm to
quote:

South Korea appears to be an anomaly on the other side


They were testing tens of thousands from day one. They were prepared. And when they found a positive test they aggressively traced back anybody that person had been in contact with. South Korea handled this as close to perfectly as anybody could.
Posted by bigpapamac
Mobile, AL
Member since Oct 2007
22610 posts
Posted on 3/21/20 at 1:04 pm to
quote:

I am justing saying that if you take China's numbers at face value


A good place to start is not taking anything China says or reports at face value.
Posted by SlowFlowPro
With populists, expect populism
Member since Jan 2004
481219 posts
Posted on 3/21/20 at 1:04 pm to
quote:

They were testing tens of thousands from day one. They were prepared. And when they found a positive test they aggressively traced back anybody that person had been in contact with. South Korea handled this as close to perfectly as anybody could.

and it still required societal isolation, both geographically and culturally
Posted by Redbone
between St. Amant and Port Vincent
Member since Sep 2012
20738 posts
Posted on 3/21/20 at 1:08 pm to
quote:


What in the frick is going on over there?
#1. Italy is involved big time in industry.

#2 Direct flights between Italy and China continued well into the outbreak in China. China was trying to hide it.

#3 The virus got a major start in Italy before they knew what hit them.

Proportionally speaking Italy's numbers is probably more comparable to the Wuhan, China area. The problem is China will never let the REAL statistics be known to the rest of the world.
Posted by arkiebrian
NWA
Member since Nov 2006
4167 posts
Posted on 3/21/20 at 1:11 pm to
Italy is truthfully reporting numbers. Iran has no freaking idea how many have it or how many have died there. Many other countries outside of Europe are in that boat.
Posted by RedRifle
Austin/NO
Member since Dec 2013
8335 posts
Posted on 3/21/20 at 1:11 pm to
quote:

South Korea appears to be an anomaly on the other side

Japan just isn't testing. i think it has to do with the Olympics issue


So where are the Japan deaths?

South Korea was aggressive in fighting this. Italy in true Italian fashion waited until it was too late. Also add in an old population and high smoker population and you get this.

So Italy did frick up.

Posted by Redbone
between St. Amant and Port Vincent
Member since Sep 2012
20738 posts
Posted on 3/21/20 at 1:12 pm to
quote:

Is there any data on Russia?
Would you believe any information from them?

I haven't looked for Russian statistics because I wouldn't believe them.

Not as bad as N.Korea though. They shot their first case and burned the body. They haven't had a case reported since then. Hummmm........
Posted by deuce985
Member since Feb 2008
27660 posts
Posted on 3/21/20 at 1:18 pm to
I find it hard to believe their population has that many old people in it or people with healthy conditions to get that % of deaths so quickly. The virus conveniently targeted so many old people to put on their backs to death even with the culture?

The data that comes out of that country is disturbing and while viruses can mutate and die off, they can also mutate into something much worse. It's very possible the virus has mutated into something worse and is also targeting their neighbors who is having a rise in deaths too. It has shown to be more lethal for very specific groups outside just age group.

I would think if it's a new strain mutated they would've identified it by now...or they're not letting anyone know to panic the world more. I know their healthcare is destroyed on top of a high old population+health problems but something isn't right there. It seems like more. Spain is seeing a rise too and it's starting to spike infections there.
This post was edited on 3/21/20 at 1:20 pm
Posted by Paul Allen
Montauk, NY
Member since Nov 2007
78697 posts
Posted on 3/21/20 at 1:19 pm to
How is Spain’s healthcare system compared with Italy?
Posted by Number 9 Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2020
681 posts
Posted on 3/21/20 at 1:23 pm to
Survey I found and posted had Spain as the healthiest country.
Posted by SlowFlowPro
With populists, expect populism
Member since Jan 2004
481219 posts
Posted on 3/21/20 at 1:25 pm to
quote:

So where are the Japan deaths?


Japan has a history of jogging their stats to look better

murders become suicides

it wouldn't shock me if they have deaths from this virus that are just being reported as standard elderly death causes
Posted by Melvin
Member since Apr 2011
23535 posts
Posted on 3/21/20 at 1:26 pm to
I don’t believe the numbers China is reporting for a second.
Posted by Burhead
Member since Dec 2014
2100 posts
Posted on 3/21/20 at 1:27 pm to
quote:

Japan has a history of jogging their stats to look better

murders become suicides

it wouldn't shock me if they have deaths from this virus that are just being reported as standard elderly death causes


The only thing they care about is having the Olympics run on time.
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