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re: Hurricane Season - NHC Tracking TD7 but Very Low End Gulf Threat

Posted on 8/26/22 at 10:58 pm to
Posted by The Boat
Member since Oct 2008
175801 posts
Posted on 8/26/22 at 10:58 pm to
Rolf’d at the Stone Cold gif being whacked out of the thread
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36439 posts
Posted on 8/26/22 at 11:26 pm to
What dildo posted the Stone Cold gif?
Posted by The Boat
Member since Oct 2008
175801 posts
Posted on 8/26/22 at 11:29 pm to
The guy 30 people replied to the last two pages
Posted by GreenRockTiger
vortex to the whirlpool of despair
Member since Jun 2020
58473 posts
Posted on 8/26/22 at 11:35 pm to
quote:

Give me a GoPro and a mic and I’ll be the official OT field reporter.

Go to the Vermillion in Brownsville, best enchiladas
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
71639 posts
Posted on 8/26/22 at 11:38 pm to
quote:

What dildo posted the Stone Cold gif?

A misguided fool.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
71639 posts
Posted on 8/26/22 at 11:40 pm to
quote:

did we learn anything new tonight?


Yes. That late lunch burrito was a mistake.
Posted by Oates Mustache
Member since Oct 2011
26028 posts
Posted on 8/27/22 at 7:44 am to
So the last two GFS runs are coming more in line with the ensembles showing a landfall in Mexico. So far so good! Leave us alone here.
Posted by notiger1997
Metairie
Member since May 2009
61276 posts
Posted on 8/27/22 at 7:51 am to
When we getting one of them cold front things?
Posted by BayouENGR
Seagrove Beach
Member since Nov 2015
2858 posts
Posted on 8/27/22 at 7:51 am to
First system, right?
Now do the second.
Posted by deuce985
Member since Feb 2008
27660 posts
Posted on 8/27/22 at 9:45 am to
I'm still recovering from Ida last year and as soon as the housing market fully collapses I'm moving. Early option looks like Austin, Texas for me.
This post was edited on 8/27/22 at 9:46 am
Posted by RummelTiger
Official TD Sauces Club Member
Member since Aug 2004
92934 posts
Posted on 8/27/22 at 9:52 am to
quote:

Early option looks like Austin, Texas for me.


Come on, brother. Always nice to have more Louisiana people here!
Posted by tarzana
TX Hwy 6-- the Brazos River Valley
Member since Sep 2015
30682 posts
Posted on 8/27/22 at 9:55 am to
Neither prospective system looks impressive at all. No future Ida or Laura visible there.
Posted by Legion of Doom
Old Metry
Member since Jan 2018
5610 posts
Posted on 8/27/22 at 9:58 am to
I’m with you. My Dad is elderly and I won’t go until after he passes. But between the evacuation every other year, property damage every other year, sky high insurance, and horrible political “leadership “, I think it’s time for me to get out of Louisiana as well.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21041 posts
Posted on 8/27/22 at 10:05 am to
quote:


We'll have to wait and see, the models are trying to resolve a very broad AEW pouch. It will be hard for that to consolidate and it might be slower than what the Euro is showing...


The trend of slower development continues to show up in the ensembles. You can see it pretty clearly with the shift from 00z to 06z on the Euro EPS. It's unclear how this might impact the long range track, if this can form, esp given the higher than normal forecast uncertainty for the steering patterns next week because of the downstream impacts from a typhoon that recurved into the Pacific jet stream.



There is still some low end support for something to form in the WCAB and Gulf but no real trends to be concerned about at this time. The 06z GEFS is still the most aggressive guidance.

Posted by Midtiger farm
Member since Nov 2014
5922 posts
Posted on 8/27/22 at 10:12 am to
quote:

downstream impacts from a typhoon that recurved into the Pacific jet stream.


Doesn't this usually help push fronts through LA into the gulf?
Posted by tarzana
TX Hwy 6-- the Brazos River Valley
Member since Sep 2015
30682 posts
Posted on 8/27/22 at 10:21 am to
Well, is it coming to Houston, or what?
Posted by NorthEndZone
Member since Dec 2008
13776 posts
Posted on 8/27/22 at 11:54 am to
5 straight GFS runs put it into Mexico. The 12Z today even farther south near Tampico. I'm liking that trend.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
71639 posts
Posted on 8/27/22 at 12:00 pm to
Looks like Kweebeck is gonna get a landfall before anyone. Who didn't have Kaybeck getting a storm this year before most everyone? We all knew Kuhbeck was going to get a hurricane this year.

Posted by gaetti15
AK
Member since Apr 2013
14733 posts
Posted on 8/27/22 at 12:07 pm to
quote:

Looks like Kweebeck is gonna get a landfall before anyone. Who didn't have Kaybeck getting a storm this year before most everyone? We all knew Kuhbeck was going to get a hurricane this year.



Alaska gets those remnant typhoons and massive extra tropical lows in the fall time all the time.

there were sometimes I looked at satellite i was like holy shite that looks like a big hurricane
Posted by MrLSU
Yellowstone, Val d'isere
Member since Jan 2004
29001 posts
Posted on 8/27/22 at 12:08 pm to
Any word yet from the Peej Prediction Center?
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