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Started By
Message
2
Posted on 10/6/17 at 1:49 pm to Duke
quote:
Euro probably did better with the movement overnight into this afternoon.
The Euro was pretty crazy last night. It initialized well east of where the NHC had the center, and that has been the difference today. I'm not sure if it was wrong at initialization, but ended up being right as Nate moved into it's path, or if the NHC had the original center in the wrong spot, but regardless, it's been pretty good thus far today.
Posted on 10/6/17 at 1:50 pm to theOG
Latest sghettis, but there's a bunch of crap models that make up the plot.
Consensus among GFS, UKMet, and Euro sits closer to LA coast than those.
Consensus among GFS, UKMet, and Euro sits closer to LA coast than those.
Posted on 10/6/17 at 1:50 pm to Thib-a-doe Tiger
He still won't be right. This thread was necessary.
Posted on 10/6/17 at 1:51 pm to theOG
quote:
is this one the newest from Levi?
It is, but other than the TVCN and the Official forecast, those spaghetti maps suck.
Posted on 10/6/17 at 1:51 pm to slackster
quote:
It is, but other than the TVCN and the Official forecast, those spaghetti maps suck.
Good deal. Thanks. You too Duke.
Posted on 10/6/17 at 1:52 pm to slackster
Thanks really just trying to gauge how worried I should be in New Orleans. People don’t seem to be taking this storm very serious and if it does somehow intensify overnight Saturday people are gonna wake up like wtf.
Posted on 10/6/17 at 1:53 pm to slackster
quote:
I get that, but my point is A) it's only one model, and B) it's a reasonable amount of error in that time frame.
But it's not just one model. They all make landfall west of the NHC track. That's the point. (GFS, Euro, HWRF, CMC, UKM are all shown on this map).
My point is, from talking with mets today, they are shocked that NHC jumped the gun with their track this morning.
This post was edited on 10/6/17 at 1:55 pm
Posted on 10/6/17 at 1:53 pm to LSU5508
It's a disorganized tropical storm with very fast forward movement. There isn't a reason to panic.
Posted on 10/6/17 at 1:54 pm to slackster
Meanwhile, Nate continues to look better:
Posted on 10/6/17 at 1:54 pm to tLSU
quote:
It's a disorganized tropical storm with very fast forward movement. There isn't a reason to panic.
A lot of people seem to disagree with you, but I really hope you're right.
Posted on 10/6/17 at 1:55 pm to Thib-a-doe Tiger
I'll always be appreciative of Peej for his "Hillary wins in the biggest landslide ever" prediction.
Posted on 10/6/17 at 1:55 pm to slackster
quote:
Meanwhile, Nate continues to look better:
Starting to get that rolled fist look.
Posted on 10/6/17 at 1:55 pm to slackster
quote:
Nate continues to look better:
it was supposed to today.
Posted on 10/6/17 at 1:55 pm to slackster
Looks like it's lined up perfectly to shoot the gap too.
Posted on 10/6/17 at 1:55 pm to LSU5508
quote:
Thanks really just trying to gauge how worried I should be in New Orleans.
Prepare like you're going to catch a Cat 1 hurricane over you. Enjoy it if the general idea of a east dominated storm comes through and New Orleans doesn't get much holds true.
Posted on 10/6/17 at 1:55 pm to tLSU
That yellow track can frick off
Posted on 10/6/17 at 1:57 pm to rds dc
quote:
Starting to get that rolled fist look.
Sigh of relief Nate won't have 12 extra hours down there.
Posted on 10/6/17 at 1:57 pm to slackster
quote:
Meanwhile, Nate continues to look better:
Does “better” mean more or less destructive to you?
Posted on 10/6/17 at 1:57 pm to theOG
quote:
A lot of people seem to disagree with you, but I really hope you're right.
What people? The bloggers on wUnderground?
There's no reliable model or forecaster intensifying anywhere close to a Category 2 hurricane. The buoys in the area haven't shown a single bit of strengthening in the past 5 hours. This is not a catastrophic situation for New Orleans.
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