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Posted on 10/6/17 at 1:23 pm to rds dc
12z Euro landfall is slightly east of 00z but it doesn't hook as hard to the NE. Moves the center directly over NOLA and then ends up west of 00z in Mississippi. Taken verbatim, 1 to 2" of rain for the area with max wind gust in the 50s.
Posted on 10/6/17 at 1:28 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:
12z euro is the icing on the "NHC jumped the gun" cake.
Is it though? I mean it's west of the NHC current track by less than 45 miles.
It's also east of the 00z run through the first 36 hours by about 45 miles. I don't think we'll see a dramatic shift in the NHC at the 4PM update.
Posted on 10/6/17 at 1:31 pm to slackster
A little more east and NOLA might end up looking good.
Posted on 10/6/17 at 1:32 pm to Swagga
quote:
A little more east and NOLA might end up looking good.
actually being semi close to NOLA can help cause the wind may blow the water down the ditches.
Posted on 10/6/17 at 1:34 pm to loogaroo
quote:OMG!! Peej may be proven right after all!
12z EURO definitely takes it directly over NOLA
Posted on 10/6/17 at 1:36 pm to slackster
quote:
Is it though? I mean it's west of the NHC current track by less than 45 miles.
That 45 miles is the difference between being right over new orleans and missing it altogether.
Posted on 10/6/17 at 1:37 pm to Swagga
Looks lie this SOB will be coming ashore during high tide, unfortunately:
Posted on 10/6/17 at 1:39 pm to slackster
NHC will come back toward NOLA at 4. Not a huge shift mind you, probably stick a little east of the city. Probably expand the Cane warnings just a touch west as well.
Posted on 10/6/17 at 1:41 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:
quote:
Is it though? I mean it's west of the NHC current track by less than 45 miles.
That 45 miles is the difference between being right over new orleans and missing it altogether.
Meh, New Orleans is under a TS Warning, that would verify on the Euro track. Only concern would be if it took that track and pulled RI at some point.
Posted on 10/6/17 at 1:41 pm to Duke
Just out of curiosity which model has been more accurate the last 2 days GFS or EURO?
Posted on 10/6/17 at 1:41 pm to LSURussian
we'll all have to eat this one if peej was rightPosted on 10/6/17 at 1:42 pm to Duke
frick
Posted on 10/6/17 at 1:42 pm to rds dc
Is RI rapid intensification?
TIA
TIA
Posted on 10/6/17 at 1:42 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:
That 45 miles is the difference between being right over new orleans and missing it altogether.
I get that, but my point is A) it's only one model, and B) it's a reasonable amount of error in that time frame.
It just so happens that it's a big deal because New Orleans is within that error. It's also a very weak system in NOLA.
Posted on 10/6/17 at 1:43 pm to jimbeam
Are you really right when you tell RDS this thread was unnessary and unneeded? I mean how many guesses do you get?
Posted on 10/6/17 at 1:43 pm to jimbeam
quote:
we'll all have to eat this one if peej was right
Make enough predictions and eventually you're bound to hit on one of them
Posted on 10/6/17 at 1:43 pm to Thib-a-doe Tiger
Yes
Posted on 10/6/17 at 1:46 pm to LSU5508
quote:
Just out of curiosity which model has been more accurate the last 2 days GFS or EURO?
GFS got the La/Ms hit correct.
Euro probably did better with the movement overnight into this afternoon.
Don't trust one model or one run though and take solutions as possible outcomes and not the outcome.
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