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Posted on 10/6/17 at 2:11 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:
But it's not just one model. They all make landfall west of the NHC track. That's the point. (GFS, Euro, HWRF, CMC, UKM are all shown on this map). My point is, from talking with mets today, they are shocked that NHC jumped the gun with their track this morning
I guess we'll see how they react at the 4PM update.
Posted on 10/6/17 at 2:11 pm to BigB0882
quote:
The latest run of the Euro is west of the NHC track. The initial landfall is not much different but Euro keeps it going due North through New Orleans and doesn't begin moving NNE/NE until near Slidell.
Correct. The Euro has a 1000mb low, so weaker than what we see now, passing over New Orleans.
Posted on 10/6/17 at 2:12 pm to Chad504boy
quote:
Next 12 hours will be key. definitely, then we'll also have to pay close attention to the next 12 hours.
The next 36 hours will be vital. We'll know a lot more about where it makes landfall when it's making landfall.
ETA Damnit Cosmo
This post was edited on 10/6/17 at 2:13 pm
Posted on 10/6/17 at 2:13 pm to slackster
Posted on 10/6/17 at 2:14 pm to Dizz
quote:
If anyone remembers Cindy it was only a Cat 1 but delivered a solid punch to the nose of NOLA.
nice comparison, forgot about her that year before katrina.
Posted on 10/6/17 at 2:16 pm to Dizz
quote:
If anyone remembers Cindy it was only a Cat 1 but delivered a solid punch to the nose of NOLA.
yeah i remember this one, was deemed a tropical storm for a while but, got upgraded later, caused a lot of power and tree issues around the NOLA area
This post was edited on 10/6/17 at 2:16 pm
Posted on 10/6/17 at 2:17 pm to tLSU
quote:
There's no reliable model or forecaster intensifying anywhere close to a Category 2 hurricane. The buoys in the area haven't shown a single bit of strengthening in the past 5 hours. This is not a catastrophic situation for New Orleans.
I don't think anyone thinks is Catastrophic however New Orleans can barley handle an average afternoon storm , add in the potential of 75-80 straight line winds for an hour and a lot of people will be fricked. You think assholes wont be looting if all of downtown loses power. Sometimes you have to think outside of the realm of the weather itself and more on the line of what happens when power is out for an extended period of time. Where this storm lands and any intensity increases could dramatically effect if the power is out 6 hours or two days. That Matters even though it wont be catastrophic.
This post was edited on 10/6/17 at 2:21 pm
Posted on 10/6/17 at 2:18 pm to Chad504boy
quote:
definitely, then we'll also have to pay close attention to the next 12 hours.
Yeah, and it's a good think we've had our eye on it the last 12 hours.
Posted on 10/6/17 at 2:19 pm to LSU5508
quote:
f the power is out 6 hours or two days
The world is not going to fall apart if the power is out for two days!
Posted on 10/6/17 at 2:20 pm to theOG
I feel like I know less about this storm today than I did yesterday.
Posted on 10/6/17 at 2:20 pm to theOG
Bright side: if you lose power at least it's not the middle-of-August level hot outside.
Posted on 10/6/17 at 2:22 pm to LSU5508
quote:
You think assholes wont be looting if all of downtown loses power
I doubt very seriously there will be looting with a power outage for this thing,
The Katrina shite happened because 95% of the city was evacuated.
As fast as this thing is moving, I don't think major flooding is a concern either.
Flame away.
Posted on 10/6/17 at 2:23 pm to Fun Bunch
quote:
I feel like I know less about this storm today than I did yesterday.
meh, there's a narrow window this storm is hitting but this narrow window makes a bit of a difference from little to no effects to knocking a trash can over.
Posted on 10/6/17 at 2:23 pm to lsuwontonwrap
quote:
Bright side: if you lose power at least it's not the middle-of-August level hot outside.
and its moving so fast, they'll be able to get to working nearly immediately.
Posted on 10/6/17 at 2:23 pm to notiger1997
You are probably correct however i've grown to never doubt the stupidity of the trash that roams downtown. Don't see any major flooding other than the usual problem spots.
Posted on 10/6/17 at 2:25 pm to LSU5508
quote:
Don't see any major flooding other than the usual problem spots.
What is the over/under on cars that get stuck in water under the overpasses on Carrolton and in Lakeview?
Posted on 10/6/17 at 2:26 pm to theOG
I might drive my car in there on purpose, looking to upgrade
Posted on 10/6/17 at 2:26 pm to LSU5508
quote:
trash that roams downtown.
Not sure what you consider downtown, but the real scum that would be looting would probably be in the 9th ward or small pockets of areas like Central City.
T-Bone would love a chance to kick in the door of one of the small neighborhood convienence stores and get him some smokes and green bottle beer.
Posted on 10/6/17 at 2:28 pm to theOG
10.....the stupidity of people that can see a water marker that clearly shows water depth of 2-3 feet and still try to drive cars through is astounding.
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