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re: Hurricane Milton - The Cleanup Begins...
Posted on 10/7/24 at 8:51 am to ColoradoAg03
Posted on 10/7/24 at 8:51 am to ColoradoAg03
Everyone that says that will never ride out another storm again. There’s really no reason to ride out a storm if this magnitude that close to the coast.
1
Posted on 10/7/24 at 8:52 am to slackster
quote:
know these things can be politicized but my question still stands - where is there proof that the NHC is “hyping” these storms?
They aren’t. If anything the NHC forecasts have been on the conservative side of intensity guidance
Posted on 10/7/24 at 8:53 am to slackster
quote:
I know these things can be politicized but my question still stands - where is there proof that the NHC is “hyping” these storms?
I’m not saying these storms aren’t dangerous and results aren’t devastating; however, recorded wind speeds aren’t coming close to the wind speeds the NHC is putting out there.
But the winds aren’t the main trouble, water is.
Posted on 10/7/24 at 8:54 am to deltaland
quote:
They aren’t. If anything the NHC forecasts have been on the conservative side of intensity guidance
Agree
The MSM does the hyping
Posted on 10/7/24 at 8:57 am to mattchewbocca
quote:
This thing might destroy Tampa
This thing, I suppose the weekend to a category three before hitting land, unless that forecast has changed with the most recent update.
Posted on 10/7/24 at 9:00 am to deltaland
Anybody in SW Florida, leave ASAP. I evacuated from Naples for Hurricane Andrew. It took me 11 hours to get to Gainesville where I had a hotel room. And there are a lot more people who live now in SW Florida than in 1992.
Posted on 10/7/24 at 9:05 am to tigersbh
quote:
This thing, I suppose the weekend to a category three before hitting land, unless that forecast has changed with the most recent update.
It is still forecast to weaken, but it’s important to remember that when a strong hurricane weakens its wind field expands. The maximum winds may not be as strong, but the tropical storm and hurricane force winds will extend further out from the center. This means the surge could start even sooner and last longer. This is essentially what happened with Katrina.
This post was edited on 10/7/24 at 9:05 am
Posted on 10/7/24 at 9:07 am to doubleb
quote:This.
I’m not saying these storms aren’t dangerous and results aren’t devastating; however, recorded wind speeds aren’t coming close to the wind speeds the NHC is putting out there.
Posted on 10/7/24 at 9:07 am to tigersbh
quote:
This thing, I suppose the weekend to a category three before hitting land, unless that forecast has changed with the most recent update.
With the current trend id bet a Cat 4 at landfall.
Katrina weakened to a Cat 3 and still did massive damage. This is an unusual situation where weakening will actually make the effects worse due to expanding the wind field and increasing surge due to expanded wind field. You’d almost be better off with a 160mph compact storm than a large storm with 130 mph and bigger surge. There isn’t much difference damage wise between 130 and 160 mph winds but the compact storm would affect a much smaller area with less surge
Don’t get too hung up on wind speed and what category it is in this instance. You don’t want to ride this out if you’re near the coast
Posted on 10/7/24 at 9:11 am to ColoradoAg03
quote:
I've got some friends that live in SW Seminole less than a mile from the channel/water behind Redington Beach. They just said they're going to ride it out.
Hope they have life jackets. People can't comprehend a 18-20 foot surge with 20' waves on top of it. While you might think your house is strong enough, it's the other house that takes yours out.
Posted on 10/7/24 at 9:13 am to LSURussian
I think it’s definitely true we rarely if ever get sustained winds as estimated, but I don’t think it’s intentionally hyped, there just isn’t a reliable way to downgrade what flights measure to what will likely be experienced- at least it seems to me.
But is there a long term problem with Cat 3/4 storms never showing Cat 2 winds at landfall in terms of the public discounting the doom messages?
But is there a long term problem with Cat 3/4 storms never showing Cat 2 winds at landfall in terms of the public discounting the doom messages?
Posted on 10/7/24 at 9:13 am to SWLA92
quote:
Don’t get too hung up on wind speed and what category it is in this instance. You don’t want to ride this out if you’re near the coast
quote:
Everyone that says that will never ride out another storm again. There’s really no reason to ride out a storm if this magnitude that close to the coast.
So what’s the minimum distance from the coast you would ride it out? You can only get so far inland in Florida
This post was edited on 10/7/24 at 9:16 am
Posted on 10/7/24 at 9:15 am to UFownstSECsince1950
This is what? The 4th major hurricane to hit that Tampa general area since 2022? And they hadn’t had one since 2004? Wild.
Posted on 10/7/24 at 9:15 am to rds dc
Kinda mesmerizing to see a strong Hurricanes ventilation "channels" on GOES. It will be interesting to see if the small interaction with the Yucatan Peninsula will actually do anything.
Posted on 10/7/24 at 9:17 am to AUTimbo
quote:
Trying like hell to make sure my son gets out of Sarasota ASAP before this thing impacts
I hope he does. One of the most frustrating parts of the hurricane experience is convincg loved ones to make good decisions.
Posted on 10/7/24 at 9:17 am to UnluckyTiger
This is what? The 4th major hurricane to hit that Tampa general area since 2022?
Wut?
Wut?
Posted on 10/7/24 at 9:18 am to deltaland
quote:
There isn’t much difference damage wise between 130 and 160 mph
Well. Considering nothing is built to withstand 160 mph I’d say you’re really wrong. Nothing is left standing from 160MPH storm except concrete buildings.
Comparing a 30 mph difference at 130-160 isn’t the same as a 60-90. Damage increases exponentially with hurricane wind speed.
This post was edited on 10/7/24 at 9:21 am
Posted on 10/7/24 at 9:20 am to doubleb
quote:
I’m not saying these storms aren’t dangerous and results aren’t devastating; however, recorded wind speeds aren’t coming close to the wind speeds the NHC is putting out there.
You can watch recon information come in real time. Are we suggesting that’s being fudged?
Land wind speed recordings come from fixed locations while the NOAA and Air Force recon missions are actively searching for the highest winds. Sometimes the highest winds cross an anemometer that holds up and records the winds (Laura, Ida, even Francine), but many times they do not. It’s a crapshoot depending on landfall location.
Posted on 10/7/24 at 9:21 am to Pettifogger
quote:It's difficult to prove intent.
but I don’t think it’s intentionally hyped
I tend to believe it's a form of liability CYA by the forecasters.
If they underestimate wind speeds and the resulting wind damage is much worse, and maybe injuries/deaths, too, they would be criticized for not warning people sufficiently especially when it comes to recommending evacuations.
Posted on 10/7/24 at 9:23 am to Pettifogger
quote:
But is there a long term problem with Cat 3/4 storms never showing Cat 2 winds at landfall in terms of the public discounting the doom messages?
Maybe, but I think in general there is still a ways to go before (if) people start ignoring them.
No one in Laura or Ida thinks they overhyped the wind, for instance.
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