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re: Hurricane Milton - The Cleanup Begins...
Posted on 10/7/24 at 9:25 am to Pettifogger
Posted on 10/7/24 at 9:25 am to Pettifogger
quote:
But is there a long term problem with Cat 3/4 storms never showing Cat 2 winds at landfall in terms of the public discounting the doom messages?
The main problem has to do with instruments. We don't have enough of them, and the ones we have can't hold up. When you have multiple stations/anemometers failing well before the worst of the wind shows up you have a problem. They make instruments capable of it, but we don't have them. Throw in that we have very few and they are poorly maintained, and max winds may as well be guesswork with many storms.
1
Posted on 10/7/24 at 9:28 am to LegendInMyMind
didn't Beryl show nearly cat 2 winds all the way to IAH?
Posted on 10/7/24 at 9:29 am to Dire Wolf
quote:
didn't Beryl show nearly cat 2 winds all the way to IAH?
Houston recorded gusts in the mid-80s, I think.
Posted on 10/7/24 at 9:31 am to Pettifogger
quote:
think it’s definitely true we rarely if ever get sustained winds as estimated, but I don’t think it’s intentionally hyped, there just isn’t a reliable way to downgrade what flights measure to what will likely be experienced- at least it seems to me.
The winds are usually there, it’s just that peak winds are usually concentrated in a small area and you only have to go a few miles to get out of them. In the case of Helene it made landfall in a low populated area so odds are there wasn’t any instrumentation where peak winds were located.
And sometimes with major hurricanes the instruments can’t withstand the winds and break before it ever gets that high of a reading
Posted on 10/7/24 at 9:32 am to LegendInMyMind
quote:
Houston recorded gusts in the mid-80s, I think.
Posted on 10/7/24 at 9:32 am to deltaland
I'm pretty sure we have a Cat 5 now.
Posted on 10/7/24 at 9:33 am to UFownstSECsince1950
quote:
So what’s the minimum distance from the coast you would ride it out? You can only get so far inland in Florida
I wouldn’t ride this one out if you’re in the direct path in Florida. It likely won’t be dangerous in say Orlando but you’ll be miserable with no power and blocked roadways
Posted on 10/7/24 at 9:34 am to Dire Wolf
I'd gust her.
Posted on 10/7/24 at 9:35 am to notiger1997
Ian, Idalia, Helene, and now Milton all impacted Tampa. When was the last time a hurricane impacted Tampa prior to those? They didn’t all hit Tampa dead on but they hit that general area. Go do some research and educate yourself instead of hitting me with a wut.
Posted on 10/7/24 at 9:35 am to deltaland
quote:
And sometimes with major hurricanes the instruments can’t withstand the winds and break before it ever gets that high of a reading
IIRC, that's what happened with the NHC's headquarters instruments during Andrew.
Posted on 10/7/24 at 9:37 am to Wally Sparks
Looks like pressure down to 935ish
Posted on 10/7/24 at 9:39 am to LNCHBOX
Is cat 5 almost guaranteed? Not at landfall but over water
Posted on 10/7/24 at 9:39 am to lsufan1971
(no message)
This post was edited on 5/28/25 at 3:45 am
Posted on 10/7/24 at 9:40 am to Dire Wolf
Keep in mind, too, that hurricane strength is measured with maximum sustained wind, not gusts. Most weather stations we have will measure the MSW and gust, but what always gets reported is the gust. I had a 54mph gust here in north AL from what was left of Francine.
This post was edited on 10/7/24 at 9:40 am
Posted on 10/7/24 at 9:40 am to Wally Sparks
quote:
IIRC, that's what happened with the NHC's headquarters instruments during Andrew.
Station at Grand Isle for Ida recorded 148 mph gust then failed too.
Posted on 10/7/24 at 9:41 am to slackster
quote:
Station at Grand Isle for Ida recorded 148 mph gust then failed too.
Was that the one on a ship that ended up not being calibrated correctly or something? I remember they threw one higher reading out for that reason.
This post was edited on 10/7/24 at 9:42 am
Posted on 10/7/24 at 9:42 am to LegendInMyMind
quote:
Keep in mind, too, that hurricane strength is measured with maximum sustained wind, not gusts.
Yeah of course, but getting gusts on land that are at/close to the maximum sustained winds is still tough, but has happened a decent bit with the last few LA storms.
Posted on 10/7/24 at 9:42 am to slackster
Looks like the cold front is showing up on schedule so all the steering mechanisms should be in place. Makes me wonder if the models will start converging more on a particular area.
Posted on 10/7/24 at 9:43 am to slackster
quote:
Land wind speed recordings come from fixed locations while the NOAA and Air Force recon missions are actively searching for the highest winds. Sometimes the highest winds cross an anemometer that holds up and records the winds (Laura, Ida, even Francine), but many times they do not. It’s a crapshoot depending on landfall location.
They make multiple passes through the hurricane, measure wind speeds at flight level and extrapolate winds at the surface.
They get better measurements closer to the surface from oil rigs and from buoys.
They broadcast the highest wind speed they found, but it seems the measurements on they coast itself aren’t measuring up. At least from what I read about Francine and Helene it did not.
I’m not trying to slough this off. Gustav measured almost 70 mph winds in BR with gusts to 93 and did a lot of damage. You don’t have to get 100mph sustained winds to cause a lot of grief.
Posted on 10/7/24 at 9:45 am to slackster
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