re: Hurricane Milton - The Cleanup Begins...

quote:

---

What part of Arkansas are you looking at? The wife and I just got back from a 3 week vacation in Arkansas and we went 2 years ago. Maybe I can tell you some things to check out. We did a lot of trails and sight seeing. Beautiful state, especially north Arkansas.

---

We are open to any suggestions. We were thinking the Hot Springs area but are not locked in to it. I’d love to hear what you suggest. Thanks.

quote:

---

Beautiful state, especially north Arkansas.

---

North is a bit prettier but even around lake Ouachita is nice and if the kids like swimming even better. Might start to be getting a bit cool though. Sounthern/central AR is much more doable driving distance from Houston than N AR imo.

quote:

---

This new NHC 7am advisory has Milton reaching Cat 5 before weakening some before landfall

---

155mph is still Cat 4

quote:

---

Are there any comparible storms to this ones projected path from the past?

---

I'm probably wrong - I usually am - but I thought I heard that it has been around 70 years or so since Tampa was hit directly from the west with a hurricane.

EDIT: According to the wikipedia, the only two times Tampa Bay has been directly hit with a major hurricane was 1848 and 1921.

Most of the model runs never had it going further south than the 22°N line. And it’s already below there. So hoping the 12z runs will show that with some more accuracy.

ZCZC MIATCUAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
805 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

...MILTON RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...

Data from both Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Milton has
strengthened to a category 4 hurricane. The maximum sustained
winds are estimated to be 150 mph (240 km/h). Milton is a category
4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Data
from the aircraft also indicate that the minimum pressure has
fallen to 940 mb (27.76 inches).

These changes will be reflected in the normal 10 AM CDT (1500 UTC)
advisory.


SUMMARY OF 805 AM CDT...1305 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 92.0W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM W OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 735 MI...11185 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 115 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown/Blake

NNNN

Wow. They put out an 8AM advisory. Guess they’re going off the immediate data from recon.

Parks are empty now. The calm before the storm

quote:

---

Wow. They put out an 8AM advisory. Guess they’re going off the immediate data from recon.

---

The right thing to do when recon is in there and showing a much stronger storm. The 7am special update had winds at 125mph, so when you sample 150mph in less than an hour, you update.

quote:

---

This is good reasoning. Obviously we know the NWS likes to make things seem worse than better

---

If anything the NHC and models have underperformed on intensity projections this year, and currently are doing so with Milton. Originally Milton was supposed to reach hurricane status this morning, instead it got there yesterday and reached major status this morning.

Worst case scenario at this point looks more probable than best case scenario. Even if it ends up “not that bad” you’re still going to deal with lots of power outages and park/restaurant closures likely the rest of the week minimum. It’s not worth risking a vacation imo