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re: Hurricane Milton - The Cleanup Begins...

Posted on 10/8/24 at 4:16 pm to
Posted by lsuman25
Erwinville
Member since Aug 2013
43293 posts
Posted on 10/8/24 at 4:16 pm to
Recon found extrapolated pressure of 902
Posted by tiger91
In my own little world
Member since Nov 2005
40226 posts
Posted on 10/8/24 at 4:16 pm to
Know a couple in Bradenton that is staying. SMH.
Posted by rmnldr
Member since Oct 2013
40298 posts
Posted on 10/8/24 at 4:18 pm to
Per NHC’s 2100 update:

quote:

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 918 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 145 KT WITH GUSTS TO 175 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 80SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 300SW 300NW.


In comparison to other storms:

Ike just before landfall:
64 KT.......110NE 90SE 55SW 55NW.
50 KT.......150NE 160SE 80SW 75NW.
34 KT.......225NE 200SE 125SW 125NW.

Katrina:
64 KT.......110NE 110SE 60SW 60NW.
50 KT.......140NE 140SE 75SW 75NW.
34 KT.......200NE 200SE 150SW 100NW.

Rita:
64 KT....... 75NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
50 KT.......120NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT.......180NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.

Laura:
64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......180NE 150SE 80SW 100NW.
Posted by SippyCup
Gulf Coast
Member since Sep 2008
6991 posts
Posted on 10/8/24 at 4:20 pm to
quote:

Know a couple in Bradenton that is staying. SMH.


I know plenty. At least the ones on the water left. The others will just hate life for a few days until they can leave.
Posted by ColoradoTiger1987
Tampa
Member since Jan 2019
1645 posts
Posted on 10/8/24 at 4:20 pm to
quote:

It looks like this thing is going to roll right up Tampa Bay as a Cat 5.


Tampa Shield [ON] OFF
Posted by JohnnyKilroy
Cajun Navy Vice Admiral
Member since Oct 2012
41019 posts
Posted on 10/8/24 at 4:20 pm to
quote:


Recon found extrapolated pressure of 902
fffffffffffffffffffff
Posted by RollTide1987
Baltimore, MD
Member since Nov 2009
71109 posts
Posted on 10/8/24 at 4:24 pm to
quote:

Recon found extrapolated pressure of 902


Gentlemen,

It’s been an honor.
This post was edited on 10/8/24 at 4:25 pm
Posted by Split2874
Mandeville
Member since Jul 2012
3506 posts
Posted on 10/8/24 at 4:27 pm to
quote:

Recon found extrapolated pressure of 902


What does this mean?
Posted by lsuman25
Erwinville
Member since Aug 2013
43293 posts
Posted on 10/8/24 at 4:28 pm to
Means it's getting stronger again
Posted by jfan244888
Soda City, SC
Member since Jul 2021
1129 posts
Posted on 10/8/24 at 4:31 pm to
It's close to its strongest point yesterday at 897. Thinking it'll go past that now.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21497 posts
Posted on 10/8/24 at 4:33 pm to
quote:

Recon found extrapolated pressure of 902


NHC went with 905. This means the 12z hurricane models were anywhere from 15-20mb too high for a 9 hr forecast! Crazy RI again.
Posted by DVinBR
Member since Jan 2013
15727 posts
Posted on 10/8/24 at 4:33 pm to
Making another run for the history books right now, look at that bigger eye, deep convection, perfectly circular
Posted by NorthEndZone
Member since Dec 2008
14267 posts
Posted on 10/8/24 at 4:34 pm to
Official from NHC is 905 mb. Very tightly wound hurricane at the moment.

quote:

Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
430 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024

...AIRCRAFT MEASURES VERY LOW PRESSURE IN THE EYE OF MILTON...

Recent observations from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicate the central pressure in the eye of Milton has
fallen to an estimated 905 mb (26.72 inches). The aircraft
observations also indicate that the maximum sustained winds are
near 165 mph (270 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 430 PM CDT...2130 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 87.4W
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM WSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
ABOUT 475 MI...770 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...905 MB...26.72 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Berg/Hagen

Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21497 posts
Posted on 10/8/24 at 4:34 pm to
quote:


It's close to its strongest point yesterday at 897. Thinking it'll go past that now.


Good timing by recon today. They may have missed the lowest pressure yesterday by an hour or two.
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 10/8/24 at 4:36 pm to
I thought this window might have a higher ceiling than yesterday.
Posted by Large Farva
New Orleans
Member since Jan 2013
8725 posts
Posted on 10/8/24 at 4:36 pm to
What is the diameter of the eye right now? Yesterday it was 1.8 nautical miles?
Posted by Roberteaux
mandeville
Member since Sep 2009
6231 posts
Posted on 10/8/24 at 4:37 pm to
quote:

Recon found extrapolated pressure of 902


God speed, Florida
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21497 posts
Posted on 10/8/24 at 4:38 pm to
quote:

I thought this window might have a higher ceiling than yesterday.


Yeah, it still hasn't hit the warmest SSTs yet. On sat, the northern outflow channel is really starting to rip. The only thing that would stop it is another ERC.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91837 posts
Posted on 10/8/24 at 4:39 pm to
Milton has a legitimate chance to take on Wilma’s pressure record, especially with that late evening maximum thing that storms do when the sun goes down. I never remember the name.
Posted by rmnldr
Member since Oct 2013
40298 posts
Posted on 10/8/24 at 4:39 pm to
Anyone think the hype/freakout about Milton is similar to the freakout over Rita after everyone saw what Katrina did?

Not saying that Milton won't have significant impacts but just suggesting the mass evacuation/hype is being affected by the recency of Helene although Helene's most severe impacts were from rain and not wind.
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