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Started By
Message
re: Hurricane Irma - Spinning Down
Posted on 9/9/17 at 9:34 am to SpanishFortTiger
Posted on 9/9/17 at 9:34 am to SpanishFortTiger
quote:
So is Missouri fricked still?
Missouri was fricked long before this storm began and will be fricked long after this storm is gone.
0
Posted on 9/9/17 at 9:35 am to Cooter Davenport
quote:
Jeff discussion should be on its own thread.
Yep. If someone else doesn't do it, I'll start a Jeff thread when it gets interesting.
Posted on 9/9/17 at 9:35 am to PT24-7
quote:
It will hit the panhandle after being projected to hit the mia/Carolinas 2 days ago and the model fan boys on here will still claim "it was within the cone".
So if it hits 800 miles from projections and people still claim the models got it right then idk what else there is to say except don't put faith in these models
That is why you can't just look at the models at face value. The westward shift potential was always there and was always greater than the eastward shift to OTS. However, the NHC takes a very conservative approach and rarely strays from the consensus track. They shift slightly based on which model is performing better with the storm but they rarely disregard the consensus. Also, the shape of the SE coastline makes it so that small track changes end up in wildly different landfall locations. Think about how different this were to play out if southern Florida had a 500 mile mostly straight coastline. Then the landfall location changes wouldn't be so drastic.
Posted on 9/9/17 at 9:36 am to cajuncarguy
quote:
That's actually pretty impressive.
Very impressive. People see these 240 hour models or the 384 hour GFS and think they're concrete, but they're not. Even that Euro model from Tuesday morning that nailed it so far had a ton of uncertainty. These were the Euro ensembles:
So the smallest of changes could have resulted in all of those paths, which is why the NHC cone doesn't go out further than 120 hours.
Flash forward to the most recent Euro run, and this is the consistency you'll see:
These models - the Euro in particular - are pretty damn impressive inside of 3 days, and even out to 5 days.
Posted on 9/9/17 at 9:36 am to GhostofJackson
quote:As we all know by now.in regards to insurance companies....writing a policy and paying on a policy are two different things.
Lloyd's will pay out even with a 3 day window with an active storm situation going on? I find that hard to believe.
Posted on 9/9/17 at 9:37 am to dbeck
Dbeck I see you are picking up right where you left off last night.
Posted on 9/9/17 at 9:37 am to slackster
That graphic proves my point from my last post.
In succession it will always be in the immediate cone. It's a moving triangle with its outer span half the size of the gulf at any point. It can really do nothing but give a general direction until 2-3 days out but still shifts when the specifics are the most important.
You don't see the NHC putting the trajectory comparison every 3 days out for a reason.
Yet you continue to berate posters who ask the obvious questions when trying to determining landfall.
I'm done trying to explain obvious triangular math. I can't believe people have trouble understanding it.
In succession it will always be in the immediate cone. It's a moving triangle with its outer span half the size of the gulf at any point. It can really do nothing but give a general direction until 2-3 days out but still shifts when the specifics are the most important.
You don't see the NHC putting the trajectory comparison every 3 days out for a reason.
Yet you continue to berate posters who ask the obvious questions when trying to determining landfall.
I'm done trying to explain obvious triangular math. I can't believe people have trouble understanding it.
Posted on 9/9/17 at 9:37 am to Dizz
Where did I leave off?
Posted on 9/9/17 at 9:38 am to Pedro
quote:
Holy hell this is giving me headaches now
It's impressive. People ask why the north turn happens, it gets explained without insult just with the whys, the explaining now makes you a smug a-hole and the north question gets asked again.
Posted on 9/9/17 at 9:38 am to SpanishFortTiger
quote:
So is Missouri fricked still?
Looks like it. Tropical Depression Irma coming for them.
Posted on 9/9/17 at 9:39 am to slackster
I'll give credit to the Euro. It nailed the path so far. Which makes me trust that one way more than the others.
Posted on 9/9/17 at 9:41 am to Thracken13
quote:
besides a storm this sized can pretty much do whatever the hell it wants
No. No it can't.
Posted on 9/9/17 at 9:41 am to theunknownknight
Meteorology is fricking 95% Physics and math your retarded arse will never fricking begin to understand. Don't attack people who understand this shite because your idiot arse can't understand fricking basic statistics and probabilities.
Posted on 9/9/17 at 9:43 am to Redbone
quote:
Still closer than you could have guessed.
Might want to do some research, I've been saying big bend/panhandle for days now while the rest of y'all chodes have been "trusting the models" from South Carolina to mia
Posted on 9/9/17 at 9:44 am to Pedro
Slack, beers on me after all
This shite is over and done with.
This shite is over and done with.
Posted on 9/9/17 at 9:44 am to GhostofJackson
quote:
loyd's will pay out even with a 3 day window with an active storm situation going on? I find that hard to believe
No, they will not open a policy right now at all, but when they do open the window, you can get a policy activated in 3 days
Posted on 9/9/17 at 9:44 am to PT24-7
quote:
PT24-7
You need a timeout. BAD.
Posted on 9/9/17 at 9:45 am to HubbaBubba
= 
Posted on 9/9/17 at 9:45 am to Pedro
fricking right Pedro. Enough of this bullshite. Time to drop the hamma on these idiots.
Posted on 9/9/17 at 9:45 am to CharlesLSU
quote:
No shite.....how much was that policy? Adding flood to ours was only $450/year.
You guys stay safe! I need more heathens around in November
My FEMA quote is same as yours, $450 a year. The Lloyds quote was up around $700/year with a little less coverage.
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